灰色预测在平朔煤炭工业公司安全生产中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,建立了平朔煤炭工业公司事故伤亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,并采用残差修正方法,提高了预测精度.对于该矿山有效地控制安全事故的发生,减少其造成的经济损失起到了重要的作用.     

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster‐attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three‐step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.     

NO参与亚砷酸钠诱导酵母细胞死亡的调控

以模式生物酵母细胞为材料,研究亚砷酸钠胁迫对细胞死亡率和胞内NO水平的影响,以探讨NO在砷诱导细胞死亡中的作用.结果显示,浓度为1～7mmol·L-1的亚砷酸钠可降低酵母细胞活性,诱导细胞死亡,随着处理浓度的升高和作用时间的延长,细胞死亡率增高;死细胞出现核固缩和核降解等凋亡特征;凋亡抑制剂Z-Asp-CH2-DCB(2"mol·L-1)与3mmol·L-1亚砷酸钠共同作用后,酵母细胞死亡率下降.在亚砷酸钠胁迫的过程中,酵母细胞内NO水平升高;一定浓度的NO清除剂c-PTIO(0.2mmol·L-1)或NO生成抑制剂NaN3(1mmol·L-1)均可降低亚砷酸钠引起的酵母细胞死亡率.结果表明,砷胁迫诱导的胞内NO升高是酵母细胞死亡的一个诱因,亚砷酸钠诱发的酵母细胞死亡中可能存在细胞凋亡过程.     

Evaluation of a hospital-based injury surveillance system for monitoring road traffic deaths in Phuket,Thailand

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate and injury surveillance (IS) system’s ability to monitor road traffic deaths and the coverage of road traffic injury and death surveillance in Phuket, Thailand.

Methods: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on surveillance system evaluation were used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate IS. Interviews with key stakeholders focused on IS’s usefulness, simplicity, flexibility, acceptability, and stability. Active case finding of 2014 road traffic deaths in all paper and electronic hospital record systems was used to assess system sensitivity, positive predictive value, and data quality. Electronic data matching software was used to determine the implications of combining IS data with other provincial-level data sources (e.g., death certificates, electronic vehicle insurance claim system).

Results: Evaluation results indicated that IS was useful, flexible, acceptable, and stable, with a high positive predictive value (99%). Simplicity was limited due to the burden of collecting data on all injuries and use of paper-based data collection forms. Sensitivity was low, with IS only identifying 55% of hospital road traffic death cases identified during active case finding; however, IS cases were representative of cases identified. Data accuracy and completeness varied across data fields. Combining IS with active case finding, death certificates, and the electronic vehicle insurance claim system more than doubled the number of road traffic death cases identified in Phuket.

Conclusion: An efficient and comprehensive road traffic injury and death surveillance system is critical for monitoring Phuket’s road traffic burden. The hospital-based IS system is a useful system for monitoring road traffic deaths and assessing risk behaviors. However, the complexity of data collection and limited coverage hinders the ability of IS to fully represent road traffic deaths in Phuket Province. Combining data sources could improve coverage and should be considered.     

一种新型的区域定量风险评估模型及应用

为了综合评估区域风险可接受性,深度挖掘潜在风险,优化风险决策,从死亡及受伤风险2方面研究了化工行业的死亡及受伤风险可接受标准（以下简称“双标准”）,提出基于“双标准”的新型区域定量风险评估模型。以1 000 m³柴油罐池火灾事故为对象,通过池火事故后果模型、概率模型及可接受风险模型的创新性使用,对其在油罐区域定量风险评估中的初步运用进行研究。结果表明:该装置在池火事故下的个人死亡风险和社会受伤风险未能达到标准要求,综合评估结果为风险不可接受;“双标准”综合评估法在区域定量风险评估中的应用具有可行性和一定参考价值 。     

生命价值评估与死亡赔偿

在成本-收益分析过程中,生命价值评估为政府确定公共政策收益提供依据。论述生命价值的基本涵义;用劳动市场上的内涵工资法通过分析工资-风险均衡关系来研究生命统计价值,在工人的期望效用曲线与企业的等利润曲线的切点上,企业正常经营,工人实现期望效用最大化。通过对提供曲线求导得到生命价值。生命价值并不针对确定的死亡问题,把生命价值作为死亡赔偿的依据,是对生命价值概念的误解,混淆了生命价值的应用范围。我国法律法规以收入水平为基础确定意外死亡赔偿标准,其实质是人力资本法。     

Death awareness and organizational behavior

This Incubator introduces scholars to death awareness research. We explicate how mortality salience can be studied in conjunction with workplace behavior. Using the Terror Management Theory (TMT) framework, we explore morality salience in combination with several workplace phenomena, including aggression, discrimination, and punishment; and, several ideas for future research are suggested. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

未来10年保定市大气PM2.5的健康效益预测

分别设定保定市2020年、2025年及2030年PM_2.5浓度的不同目标情景,并考虑人口发展趋势,采用IER模型对各区县低、中、高目标情景下归因于PM_2.5污染的过早死亡人数进行评估.结果表明,以2017年大气PM_2.5浓度为基线,按照高中低3种预测情景,在2020年、2025年和2030年分别能避免的过早死亡人数高达1582~3840人、5244~7902人和12602~23558人,主要分布在市中心（莲池区、竞秀区和清苑区）及其东南区域.随着老龄化问题越来越严重,环境质量改善获得的健康收益愈加突出,心血管系统疾病（中风和缺血性心脏病）的归因死亡人数多于呼吸系统疾病（肺癌、慢阻肺疾病以及急性下呼吸道感染）.当PM_2.5浓度高于20μg/m³时,中风的归因死亡人数最高;当PM_2.5浓度小于10μg/m³时,缺血性心脏病的归因死亡人数最高.建议保定市在制定PM_2.5污染防控政策时重点关注人群密集的市区及东南方向地区,并考虑大气污染不同阶段导致的过早死亡疾病类型进行针对性的宣教和防控.     

基于灰色理论的特种设备安全事故预测研究

应用灰色理论,借助于EXCEL及MATLAB软件工具,并以我国近年实际数据为基础,对我国“十二五”期间特种设备安全事故的绝对死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数进行了预测.结果表明,基于灰色理论的特种设备事故的死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数的模拟值和真实值较吻合,预测模型精度检验为好;预测指标可为特种设备安全政策制订和科学监管决策提供依据及参考.     

二氧化硫诱导蚕豆气孔保卫细胞死亡效应研究

采用蚕豆叶面气孔保卫细胞,研究SO2衍生物(Na2SO3与NaHSO3混合液,3:1,mmol·L-1)对细胞的致死效应.结果表明,在浓度1～4mmol·L-1内,SO2衍生物暴露3h可使表皮保卫细胞活性降低,部分细胞死亡,并致胞内活性氧和Ca2+水平升高;随着处理浓度的提高细胞死亡率增高.一定浓度的抗坏血酸(AsA)或过氧化氢酶(CAT)与SO2衍生物共同作用时,胞内活性氧水平降低,细胞死亡率下降.Ca2+螯合剂乙二醇双四乙酸(EGTA)或Ca2+通道抑制剂LaCl3与SO2衍生物共同作用时,胞内钙水平与细胞死亡率降低.LaCl3能降低H2O2诱导的细胞死亡率.研究结果表明,SO2致蚕豆保卫细胞死亡与胞内活性氧水平增高有关,活性氧能激活质膜Ca2+通道,使胞外Ca2+内流,造成胞内Ca2+浓度升高,介导细胞死亡;胁迫组气孔保卫细胞活性降低或死亡,将导致气孔运动失调.