Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: An example from East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Policy and human livelihoods modelling increasingly demands integrated research which requires ecological expertise. However, contributions from ecologists are often based on sparse data. Rather than discounting such data, in this paper we demonstrate how ecological modelling can effectively contribute to the development of policy recommendations in spite of data constraints. In a petrol subsidy analysis in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, we accounted for ecological data uncertainty by (a) assuming large parameter value ranges and (b) conducting a robustness test for policy recommendations. In addition to data scarcity, counter-intuitive results emerged emphasising the need for model validation. These counter-intuitive results indicated that decreasing petrol prices led to increased poverty. This informed a policy recommendation to prevent the reduction of petrol prices below IDR 5500 per litre. Using two key livelihood resources (fish and honey), we found that while a traditional sensitivity analysis suggested highly robust results, a robustness test indicated that policy recommendations would change if the incorrectness of parameter values approached 50%. The results show that ecological modelling can contribute effectively in spite of sparse data to guide policy, as well as identifying future research priorities.     

Low carbon transition options for Australia

A rapid and sustained transition to new energy systems for Australia was explored using the OzECCO model implemented in a systems dynamics simulation package. OzECCO simulates the close relationship between energy use and economic productivity at a sectoral level to explore scenarios of economic and biophysical function based on a calibration period of 1981-2005 and a scenario period 2006-2051. The core scenarios showed that a fully renewable (the renewables transition) or an advanced fossil and nuclear transition (the conventional wisdom transition), can reduce accumulated CO2 emissions from the Australian economy for the period 2006-2051 by 50%. Adding a low growth economy where GDP averages less than 1% annually extends this to a 60% reduction. Extensive reforestation of more than 50 million hectares extends the total reduction to 70% over the 45 year period and provides at 2051 a per capita emissions level of one to two tonnes which will be necessary if developed and developing countries are to converge on equal atmospheric impacts with reasonable lifestyle opportunities. Central to both the renewables and conventional-wisdom scenarios are substantial reductions in the physical dimensions of personal consumption, and the transfer of these avoided consumption opportunities to an intergenerational sovereign wealth fund. This fund, held outside day-to-day domestic activities, can buffer Australian society and future generations against shocks, financial or physical, that might lie waiting and unanticipated in our future. This study did not explore phasing out Australia's extensive coal and natural gas exports although their impact on global atmospheric concentrations is significant. Domestic combustion and exported fuels will add 82 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere in the scenario period 2006-2051, equivalent to a 20 ppm rise in atmospheric concentrations. The low-growth renewables transition with unconstrained exports reduces this rise to 15 ppm. The continued expansion of fuel exports thus expands atmospheric risk in physical terms but also entrains policy and strategic risks should carbon-based industries become pariahs in international commerce and political relations.     

Sustainable development strategies: Tools for policy coherence

Many different approaches for national sustainable development strategies (NSDS) have been proposed since 1992, with some components common to all. A country's national strategy should be designed to help mainstream environmental concerns into policy. More broadly, it should coordinate local policy with global concerns, as well as integrate scientific knowledge into policy and development planning. The peer review mechanism for national strategies was piloted by France, and also involved representatives of countries from the North and the South as well as stakeholders. The peer review process allows countries to share their experience and information, and can assist them in identifying their own path to sustainable development. The business community can also contribute to sustainable development through provision of local and global public goods. Another input to sustainable development could come from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and its Guidance Standard on Social Responsibility (ISO 26000), as a coordinating mechanism between voluntary initiatives and binding obligations (such as international conventions). ISO standards and guidelines should therefore be integrated with national sustainable development strategies and local Agenda 21 frameworks.     

Promise and performance of agricultural nutrient management policy: Lessons from the Baltic Sea

Following decades of international collaboration to restore the Baltic Sea, we provide an assessment of the domestic implementation of measures agreed to limit diffuse agricultural pollution and the patterns of policy instruments applied. Despite the Helsinki Convention being unusually specific in detailing what measures countries should introduce, we find many shortcomings. These are most pronounced in the larger countries (Poland, Germany and Russia), while smaller countries perform better, notably Sweden and Estonia. The patterns of policy instruments applied differ, influenced by domestic politics. The limited use of complementary policy instruments suggests that other priorities overrule full and effective implementation, with engagement mirroring the advantages that a restored Baltic Sea can bring to countries. Using the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development to support farmers in managing nutrients, particularly advisory services and investments in modern manure management technologies, represents a significant opportunity for reducing agricultural pollution in most countries.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01549-3.     

Compliance with Canada’s Fisheries Act: A Field Audit of Habitat Compensation Projects

Loss of fish habitat in North America has occurred at an unprecedented rate through the last century. In response, the Canadian Parliament enacted the habitat provisions of the Fisheries Act. Under these provisions, a “harmful alteration, disruption, or destruction to fish habitat” (HADD) cannot occur unless authorised by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), with legally binding compensatory habitat to offset the HADD. The guiding principle to DFO’s conservation goal is “no net loss of the productive capacity of fish habitats” (NNL). However, performance in achieving NNL has never been evaluated on a national scale. We investigated 52 habitat compensation projects across Canada to determine compliance with physical, biological, and chemical requirements of Section 35(2) Fisheries Act authorisations. Biological requirements had the lowest compliance (58%) and chemical requirements the highest (100%). Compliance with biological requirements differed among habitat categories and was poorest (19% compliance) in riparian habitats. Approximately 86% of authorisations had larger HADD and/or smaller compensation areas than authorised. The largest noncompliance in terms of habitat area occurred in riverine habitat in which HADDs were, on average, 343% larger than initially authorised. In total, 67% of compensation projects resulted in net losses of habitat area, 2% resulted in no net loss, and 31% achieved a net gain in habitat area. Interestingly, probable violations of the Fisheries Act were prevalent at half of the projects. Analyses indicated that the frequency of probable Fisheries Act violations differed among provinces. Habitat compensation to achieve NNL, as currently implemented in Canada, is at best only slowing the rate of habitat loss. In all likelihood, increasing the amount of authorised compensatory habitat in the absence of institutional changes will not reverse this trend. Improvements in monitoring and enforcement are necessary to move towards achieving Canada’s conservation goals.     

生态环境政府网站现状与发展趋势研究

生态环境政府门户网站自建成以来一直是各级生态环境部门在互联网上履行职能、面向社会提供服务的官方网站,是政府机关实现政务信息公开、服务企业和社会公众、互动交流的重要渠道,是发布权威信息、服务企业和社会公众、开展互动交流的重要平台。近年来,生态环境部门的职能发生重大调整,但生态环境政府网站建设并没有进行相应的顶层设计,致使各级生态环境政府门户网站普遍存在着发展方向不明确、服务功能建设滞后、栏目设置与职能业务结合不紧密等问题。本文从分析政府网站在生态环境工作发生深刻变革的形势下承担政务信息公开、宣传引导、决策参与和依法履责等方面的要求出发,分析了当前各级生态环境政府网站发展现状与不足,进而探讨了未来生态环境政府门户网站发展的趋势。     

Is the National Water Commission an appropriate institutional and governance structure to address the fundamental requirements of the water and irrigation industry in Australia?

The National Water Commission (NWC) and the $2 billion Australian Government Water Fund (the fund) has drawn attention to the need for innovative and adaptive practices for water use. The NWC and the fund, whilst a critical and catalytic step in the recognition of the current water situation in Australia, has thus far neglected to consider the systemic failures of the water, irrigation and related industries that led to this point. The underlying issue of the efficient allocation of water resources can be resolved by the harmonisation of competing demands (economic, social and environmental) and the establishment of governance structures to reduce institutional impediments. The linking of the fund to National Competition Council (NCC) payments is an important consideration in this process. This paper will argue that governance reform and institutional (re)alignment to remedy the impediments to the efficient allocation of water resources needs to be embedded in and linked to national competition policy principles. This paper will consider the NWC in this context with the aim of informing future policy to consider the systemic failures of the water industry and to forge institutional change for the more effective allocation of water.     

Long-term dynamics in land resource use and the driving forces in the Beressa watershed, highlands of Ethiopia

Land degradation in the Ethiopian highlands is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development and food security in the country. However, knowledge about the forces driving the long-term dynamics in land resources use is limited. This research integrates biophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to examine the dynamics of land resource use and farmers' livelihoods in the Beressa watershed for over 40 years during the second half of the 20th century. It was found that there have been substantial dynamics in land resource use in the area. The natural vegetation cover has been extensively cleared, although most of the cleared areas have since been replaced with plantations. Grazing land has expanded remarkably at the expense of cropland and bare land. However, the expansion of cropland was minimal over the 43-year period despite a quadrupling of the population density. Yields have not increased to compensate for the reduction in per capita cropland, and the soil quality appears to be not that good. Though the farmers perceived it otherwise, the long-term rainfall pattern has improved. In response to soil degradation, water shortage, socio-economic and policy changes, farmers have tended to gradually change from annual cropping to tree planting and livestock production to cope with the problems of soil degradation, water scarcity and smaller farms. Income diversification through the sale of wood and cattle dung is becoming a major livelihood strategy. Apparently, however, little attention has been paid to investments in soil and water conservation (SWC) and local soil fertility amendments. In particular, increased erosion and related high nutrient losses in sediments, as well as the removal of potentially available soil nutrients through the sale of manure threatens to damage agricultural sustainability in the area.     

Ecologically based policy evaluation: application to ungulate management in New Zealand

Introduced ungulates, e.g., deer and Himalayan tahr, are variously considered as both pests and resources in New Zealand. Much ecological research has occurred into these species and into the ecosystems in which they live. Concurrently, much has been done to develop ‘management’ plans for these species. We reviewed ecological research relevant to these ungulates and developed ecologically relevant criteria to assess the extent to which these have been considered in these plans. Nine criteria were developed within four thematic areas: ecological principles, objectives and outcomes, adaptive management, and use of science information. Four planning documents were then evaluated. All four poorly or at best marginally considered fundamental ecological principles: only the Himalayan thar control plan scored well in terms of having objectives and outcomes that were clearly ecologically based; the thar plan was very strong in terms of its commitment to implementing adaptive management; and, in terms of using the best available science both the thar plan and the deer issues and options paper scored well. Overall, ecological science and principles have not played major roles in the development of some of these plans, probably because ultimately they reflect political choices that are difficult to support with the available ecological research.     

基于系统动力学的推进酒精企业清洁生产政策模拟

政府补贴、资源与能源价格、排污收费等政策是影响企业实施清洁生产的重要因素。本文以某酒精企业推进清洁生产的系统动力学模型为例模拟政府的政策对于企业开展清洁生产的收益的影响,为决策者调节其政策提供科学依据。