北京市道路积雪污染及特性研究

通过2009~2012年对北京市区道路旁积雪的取样,分析了积雪中污染物的浓度和特性,并对国内外普遍关注的融雪剂污染问题及其控制进行了初步分析。得出道路积雪中+NH 4-N、TN、TP、COD、SS、Cd等污染物主要来自交通活动,氯化物主要来自氯盐融雪剂;与《地表水环境质量标准》相比,道路积雪中主要污染物为NH+4-N、TN、COD、BOD和氯化物,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd等重金属的污染水平不高,可达到Ⅴ类水体标准;相同地点近似降水量条件下,积雪中TP、COD、SS的平均浓度高于降雨径流;北京市交通主干道及人行道上喷撒氯盐融雪剂的量高于国外道路,控制其污染主要通过源头减少使用量、使用替代融雪剂、严格融雪剂标准和使用方法、严肃责任追究、加强宣传教育等措施。     

推进养殖污染防治,实现产业优化与环境保护双赢——对《水污染防治行动计划》的解读

针对《水污染防治行动计划》提出的畜禽养殖污染治理思路和措施,梳理了我国现阶段畜禽养殖污染防治中存在的问题,对《水污染防治行动计划》中提出的"调布局、建设施、促利用"三大举措进行了分析和解读,提出了落实《水污染防治行动计划》的几项重点工作,为地方推进畜禽养殖污染防治工作提供参考。     

沈阳市环境空气中醛酮类化合物污染现状初探

通过对沈阳地区环境空气中醛酮类化合物的测定,初步了解其醛酮类化合物的污染现状。采用2,4-二硝基苯肼吸附柱采集环境空气样品,高效液相色谱法对样品进行分析。结果表明:沈阳市5个监测点位中冬季浑南二点位醛酮类污染物浓度最低,冬季二毛点位醛酮类污染物浓度最高。冬夏两季的环境空气中均检出丙酮和乙醛,冬季醛酮类污染物浓度总和高于夏季。     

基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康,且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势,本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例,将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期,分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明,政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围,尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管,在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

乡村人居环境系统韧性的演变规律及其提升路径——以国家城乡融合发展试验区重庆西部片区为例

以国家城乡融合发展试验区——重庆西部片区为研究区,以2009年、2014年、2019年为研究时点,以2009—2019年为研究时段,按照思想缘起、理论基础、实证演绎、提升路径的研究思路,建立乡村人居环境系统韧性测度的指标体系,分析其演变规律。研究结果表明：2009—2019年,重庆西部片区的乡村人居环境系统韧性水平不断上升,呈现出“南高北低”的空间格局。各子系统韧性在时间上呈现出不同程度的增长趋势,在空间上差异明显：自然系统韧性与人类系统韧性分别呈现出“由南向北递减”和“东西部向中部递减”的空间格局;居住系统韧性与支撑系统韧性则分别呈现出由“低值点缀分布”逐渐过渡到较为均衡和“普遍均衡、高低值点缀”的空间格局;社会系统韧性表现为“西部增强、东部减弱”的空间格局特征。借助障碍度模型对重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的障碍因子及不同区县面临的主导障碍进行诊断,根据结果将重庆西部片区划分为单一主导障碍型、双重障碍型与三层障碍型三种类型,据此设计乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的差异化路径,以期打破重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的多重制约。     

中国旅游业绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响机理

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展理念的重要组成部分,是旅游业奉行以人为本、生态至上和全面发展的新价值观。在梳理旅游业绿色发展概念及内涵基础上,构建旅游业绿色发展效率评价体系,运用SBM-Undersirable模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,探讨2008—2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）旅游业绿色发展效率（TGDE）时空演化特征及影响机理。研究发现：（1）时间和空间变化方面,TGDE总体处于中等偏下水平,时间上呈“W”型变化形态,“下降—上升—调整”阶段特征显著;空间呈“东—中—西”递减分布,内部差异为西部地区>东部地区>中部地区,低、中、高效率由“金字塔”向“菱形”结构转变,高效率地区集中于东部沿海,中等效率多分布于中西部地区,低效率位于胡焕庸线两侧。（2）动态演进方面,TGDE始终存在两极分化现象,但区域协调性逐步增强,具有较强平稳性,难以实现跨越式发展,空间向上转移省份比较集中,以中西部为主,向下调整省份较少,且存在明显的空间溢出效应,溢出影响具有不对称性。（3）影响机理方面,总体上,经济水平、产业结构、政府规制、教育水平和旅游资源影响因子与TGDE间存在显著的正向关系,对外开放程度的作用不显著,但各因子的影响程度、作用机理及条件具有较强地域性。     

Source identification, contamination status and health risk assessment of heavy metals from road dusts in Dhaka, Bangladesh

In this study, concentrations of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were determined in road dusts collected from different locations in Dhaka to assess source, contamination status and health risk. Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to determine Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb and their mean concentrations were 162.27 ± 29.46, 721.18 ± 180.14, 35.65 ± 12.55, 104.56 ± 128.33, 515.32 ± 321.90, BDL, and 342.82 ± 591.20 mg/kg, respectively. Among the heavy metals, highest concentrations of Cu, Zn and Pb were found at urban sites-7 (municipal waste dumping) and 8 (medical waste incineration). Highest concentration of Cr followed by Cu and Zn was found at site-5 (Tejgaon, urban). Principal component analysis revealed that anthropogenic activities are the potential sources for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb while earth crust for Mn. Pollution index and pollution load index results suggested that all the sites were contaminated and/or degraded by Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb except sites-9 (urban), 10 (sub-urban), 11 (rural) while sites-7 and 8 (urban) were extremely degraded. For noncarcinogenic health risk, hazard quotient values for dermal were higher compared to that of inhalation/ingestion. Though hazard index values were less than 1 at all the sites, these were at least one order of magnitude higher for children group than that of adult group, thus the children group may face more noncarcinogenic health risk at sites-7 and 8. Values of incremental lifetime cancer risk were from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻¹¹ showed no carcinogenic health risk by road dusts contaminated with the heavy metals.     

基于流域演化的泥石流敏感性分析

基于泥石流来源于某些处于特殊演化阶段的分支小流域的理论,分析了面积高程曲线及其参数与泥石流活动的关系。面积高程曲线积分值S表征流域内松散固体物质量,S/2对应的相对高差比值K表征流域源地面积在不同高程的分布,以S和K为参数提出泥石流敏感性分析思路。针对汶川县主要公路(都汶公路和省道303)沿线泥石流敏感性分析,在Arcgis、Matlab等软件的支持下,基于震前1:50 000地形数据,计算了研究区泥石流流域的S和K。根据计算结果,初步判定了各流域的地貌发育阶段,以及流域源地汇水区的高程位置。并根据震后泥石流实际活动情况,对于S小于0.5但又属于震后频发型,或者S值大于0.5但其面积较大且分支较多泥石流沟,进行了次一级子流域的面积高程值计算,判定其易发生泥石流具体源地。最后,根据流域面积高程值S得出了研究区泥石流敏感性分级图,分析结果基本反应了地貌演化对泥石流发生能力的潜在影响。     

长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析

基于长江中下游流域75个雨量站1960~2012年的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,全面地分析了长江中下游流域旱涝急转的趋势变化和时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)长周期旱涝急转表现为以涝转旱事件为主,且存在由旱涝急转事件向全旱或全涝事件过渡的趋势,短周期的旱涝急转发生频率较高的也是涝转旱事件;(2)长江中下游北岸多发生旱转涝事件,南岸则多发生涝转旱事件;(3)1998年和2011年6~7月短周期高强度旱转涝事件发生在长江北岸,涝转旱事件发生在南岸地区;5~6月与7~8月旱涝急转事件强度分布则呈相反状态;(4)总体来说,长、短周期涝转旱频次呈现不断减小的趋势,旱转涝有轻微增加的趋势。7~8月则较为特殊,湘江流域涝转旱有增加的趋势,洞庭湖地区涝转旱显著增加,此研究结果可以为长江中下游流域防洪抗旱工作提供一定的依据。