基于演化博弈的危化品安全监管情景推演研究

针对危化品安全生产监管问题,基于演化博弈理论构建危化品安全监管演化博弈模型,并将危化品事故发生率引入模型,对比分析危化品企业与地方政府监管部门行为策略的演化稳定均衡。在此基础上进行情景推演模拟仿真,研究表明:危化品事故发生率,对危化品企业和地方政府监管部门的策略选择有显著影响,当危化品事故发生概率低于某一临界值时,危化品企业和监管部门都会疏忽安全投入和监管;地方政府承受危化品事故经济损失和信誉损失增大时,危化品安全监管系统演化呈现出周期性波动;引入上级政府惩罚机制情景下,当上级政府惩罚力度高于危化品企业未投入安全生产受到的处罚和地方政府安全监管成本时,其最终都选择安全投入和严格监管策略。研究结论为政府监管危化品安全生产提供新的思路和对策建议。     

河流水环境有机污染物的自组织预测模型及应用

自组织预测模型是前苏联学者伊万年科提出的一种非线性建模预测方法,它能有效地解决复杂非线性系统的数据处理和建模问题。该文应用它进行水环境有机污染物预测,以实际监测数据为基础,建立了一个河流有机物浓度预测的自组织模型,其检验样本的预测误差在５％以内      

大气污染物总量收费方法研究

在分析排污收费的经济学基础上,通过引入“责任系数”和“责任份额”的概念,将污染源的排污行为与环境质量直接联系起来,认为对污染源排污费的征收应以该源对环境所造成的危害程度为测算依据,笔者提出了一种与大气污染物总量控制相配套的总量收费方案,以期与有关人士商榷。      

Responses of microbial interactions to elevated salinity in activated sludge microbial community

● Salinity led to the elevation of NAR over 99.72%. ● Elevated salinity resulted in a small, complex, and more competitive network. ● Various AOB or denitrifiers responded differently to elevated salinity. ● Putative keystone taxa were dynamic and less abundant among various networks. Biological treatment processes are critical for sewage purification, wherein microbial interactions are tightly associated with treatment performance. Previous studies have focused on assessing how environmental factors (such as salinity) affect the diversity and composition of the microbial community but ignore the connections among microorganisms. Here, we described the microbial interactions in response to elevated salinity in an activated sludge system by performing an association network analysis. It was found that higher salinity resulted in low microbial diversity, and small, complex, more competitive overall networks, leading to poor performance of the treatment process. Subnetworks of major phyla (Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Chloroflexi) and functional bacteria (such as AOB, NOB and denitrifiers) differed substantially under elevated salinity process. Compared with subnetworks of Nitrosomonadaceae, Nitrosomonas (AOB) made a greater contribution to nitrification under higher salinity (especially 3%) in the activated sludge system. Denitrifiers established more proportion of cooperative relationships with other bacteria to resist 3% salinity stress. Furthermore, identified keystone species playing crucial roles in maintaining process stability were dynamics and less abundant under salinity disturbance. Knowledge gleaned from this study deepened our understanding of microbial interaction in response to elevated salinity in activated sludge systems.     

湖南省臭氧污染基本特征分析及长期趋势变化主控因素识别

近些年来湖南省臭氧(O3)污染程度呈现持续恶化态势,针对该区域O3污染相关研究较为缺乏的现状,基于观测数据对2015～2020年期间湖南省14个地级市O3污染浓度的时空演化特征进行了分析,并利用广义相加模型(GAM)对O3污染长期趋势变化的主控因素进行了识别(气象校正).结果表明,时间上,湖南省区域O3具有明显的日际、...     

竺山湾流域河湖系统污染物总量控制研究

复杂河湖系统的总量控制需考虑河湖双重控制目标,以太湖西北部竺山湾流域为研究对象,运用排污系数法计算了区域内的入河污染负荷;构建了一维河网和二维湖体水环境数学模型,对水环境数学模型进行了率定;基于多重目标的河网水环境容量计算方法,计算了河网水环境容量,并分配至各控制单元;定量分析了各控制单元各污染物总量达标情况下的削减量及削减率。结果表明:竺山湾流域COD削减量为834.4 t,削减率为13.8%;氨氮削减量为226.1 t,削减率为36.5%;总氮削减量为724.8 t,削减率为55.2%;总磷削减量为108.9 t,削减率为73.4%。论文成果对于开展竺山湾流域污染物总量控制和水环境保护具有重要指导意义,同时为类似的河湖系统水污染物总量控制提供借鉴。     

区域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变研究——以巢湖流域为例

提高自然灾害恢复力是应对气候变化和自然灾害的重要途径之一。在总结自然灾害恢复力研究的基础上,全面考虑自然、社会、经济、技术、管理等5个维度对其的影响,构建巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,并基于ANP分析方法求得非独立指标间的权重,评价巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力,进而分析2000~2010年之间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变规律,以期为提高巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力水平提供有价值的参考。研究结果表明,2000~2010年巢湖流域大部分地区洪涝灾害恢复力指数都在增长,但增长速率存在不同地区、不同维度上的明显差异;从流域平均水平来看,10 a间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力指数在增长,其中自然维的指数是下降的,其他维度的指数为增长,并且对巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力增长正向影响最大的是经济维影响因子,而自然维的影响因子对恢复力增长起到了负向作用;2000~2010年巢湖流域洪涝灾害各等级恢复力分布格局变化不大,但其他地区与合肥市辖区恢复力的差距在拉大。     

EU air pollution regulation: A breath of fresh air for Eastern European polluting industries?

Does air quality regulation in the European Union (EU) foster polluting activity in emerging and developing countries? In this paper, we propose an original variable that evaluates regulation stringency, based on the EU Air Quality Framework Directive. Focusing on the underlying mechanism and controlling for endogeneity in the relation between regulation and trade, we provide robust evidence that EU countries implementing more stringent air pollution regulations import relatively more in pollution-intensive sectors from developing and emerging countries in Europe and Central Asia.     

Channel Evolution Models as Predictors of Sediment Yield

This paper recounts our predictions of channel evolution of the Black Vermillion River (BVR) and sediment yields associated with the evolutionary sequence. Channel design parameters allowed for the prediction of stable channel form and coincident sediment yields. Measured erosion rates and basin‐specific bank erosion curves aided in prediction of the stream channel succession time frame. This understanding is critical in determining how and when to mitigate a myriad of instability consequences. The BVR drains approximately 1,062 km² in the glaciated region of Northeast Kansas. Once tallgrass prairie, the basin has been modified extensively for agricultural production. As such, channelization has shortened the river by nearly 26 km from pre‐European dimensions; shortening combined with the construction of numerous flow‐through structures have produced dramatic impacts on discharge and sediment dynamics. Nine stream reaches were established within three main tributaries of the BVR in 2007. Reaches averaged 490 m in length, were surveyed, and assessed for channel stability, while resurveys were conducted annually through 2010 to monitor change. This work illustrates the association of current stream state, in‐channel sediment contributions, and prediction of future erosion rates based on stream evolution informed by multiple models. Our findings suggest greater and more rapid sedimentation of a federal reservoir than has been predicted using standard sediment prediction methods.     

Multiple biomarkers responses in Prochilodus lineatus allowed assessing changes in the water quality of Salado River basin (Santa Fe, Argentina)

This field study assessed water quality of Salado River basin by using a set of biomarkers in the fish Prochilodus lineatus. Multiple biomarkers were measured, including morphological indexes (condition factor, liver somatic index), hematological (red and white blood cells) and biochemical (glucose, total protein and cholinesterase activity) parameters. Besides, detoxication and oxidative stress markers (antioxidant enzymes, lipid peroxidation) were measured in liver, gills and kidney. Despite water quality assessment did not show marked differences among sites, biomarkers responses indicate that fish are living under stressful environmental conditions. According to multivariate analysis glucose, glutathione S-transferase activity, lipid peroxidation levels and the count of white blood cells are key biomarkers to contribute to discrimination of sites. So, we suggest use those biomarkers in future monitoring of freshwater aquatic systems.