华东地区中强震孕育过程中的中小地震动态演化特征

引用有关地震活动的频度面积S值方法,对华东地区1970年以来中强震前后的中小地震活动进行了研究,发现地震的S值在震前和震后的异常变化特征主要表现为:在震前S值异常为高值或低值异常,震后下降或上升;对特定区域研究发现,华东地区陆地区域的中强震的孕震区,中小地震活动的S值震前异常主要为高值,震后下降;而海域的中强震孕震区中小地震活动的S值震前主要表现为低值异常。因此,通过对华东地区中强震孕震区中小地震活动的频度面积S值方法的动态追踪,利用其变化规律可以为中强震的预测预报提供一种判定指标。     

基于复杂网络的台风灾害演化系统风险分析与控制研究

基于复杂网络理论,提出了一种针对自然灾害演化系统的风险分析与控制的思路与方法。以"莫拉克"台风为例,构建了包含30个危机事件与39条连接边的台风网络演化模型;采用网络节点的出入度、子网节点数和包含节点的支链数进行风险分析,并确定关键节点,进一步提出断链方案和控制建议。结果表明:狂风、暴雨、洪水、山体滑坡、泥石流、交通堵塞和村庄毁坏等事件风险较大,是台风灾害系统的关键节点。据此提出建议:提高城市排水系统运行能力,加强交通系统监管和调度力度,启动农村人员安置和灾后重建预案。     

基于贝叶斯网络的城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析

为了解城市地震次生灾害的演化路径及扩散机理,进而为城市防震救灾工作提供科学的参考依据,通过对城市地震有关资料和文献的分析,确定出城市地震次生灾害演化系统贝叶斯网络的节点变量及取值范围,并根据节点变量之间的因果关系构建出贝叶斯网络结构图。通过对国内外典型震例中的16个受灾城市相关数据进行统计,分析获得网络结构各个变量的条件概率。结合贝叶斯网络推理知识,利用贝叶斯网络工具箱分析了在相同的地震输入变量、不同的控制输入变量取值条件下,各类城市地震次生灾害的发生概率。算例分析结果表明不同的应急管理水平对城市地震各类次生灾害的发生概率有显著影响。     

近距双线盾构隧道开挖诱发地层变形演变规律及数值模拟

双线平行隧道盾构施工相互扰动作用对其诱发的地层变形分布特征和演变规律影响显著。以某地铁双线盾构隧道工程为例,考虑双线平行隧道间距与盾构施工相互作用影响,采用数值模拟和现场实测相结合的方法对双线平行隧道盾构施工引起的地层变形演变规律进行了对比分析,并提出了考虑近远距状态的双线平行隧道盾构施工地层变形预测模型。研究结果表明,双线盾构隧道施工地层竖向变形曲线由“V”形发展为非对称“W”形分布,沉降槽宽度由6D扩大为10D,地层深度越深非对称“双峰”特征越明显;地层水平变形曲线以两隧道中线为轴线呈反对称分布,两隧道间区域土体变形受施工扰动影响显著;地表沉降曲线分布随双线隧道近远距变化由深“V”形—浅“V”形—“U”形—浅“W”形—深“W”形—两独立“V”形演变,采用L cr=2CKH可作为双线平行盾构隧道近远距状态临界判据,本文提出的预测模型能较好地反映近远距状态及施工相互扰动对双线平行隧道盾构施工地层变形的影响规律。研究成果可为类似地铁隧道盾构施工变形预测与精细化控制提供科学参考。     

Distribution,enrichment mechanism and risk assessment for fluoride in groundwater: a case study of Mihe-Weihe River Basin,China

● High fluorine is mainly HCO₃·Cl-Na and HCO₃-Na type. ● F⁻ decreases with the increase of depth to water table. ● High fluoride is mainly affected by fluorine-containing minerals and weak alkaline. ● Fluorine pollution is mainly in the north near Laizhou Bay (wet season > dry season). ● Groundwater samples have a high F⁻ health risk (children > adults). Due to the unclear distribution characteristics and causes of fluoride in groundwater of Mihe-Weihe River Basin (China), there is a higher risk for the future development and utilization of groundwater. Therefore, based on the systematic sampling and analysis, the distribution features and enrichment mechanism for fluoride in groundwater were studied by the graphic method, hydrogeochemical modeling, the proportionality factor between conventional ions and factor analysis. The results show that the fluorine content in groundwater is generally on the high side, with a large area of medium-fluorine water (0.5–1.0 mg/L), and high-fluorine water is chiefly in the interfluvial lowlands and alluvial-marine plain, which mainly contains HCO₃·Cl-Na- and HCO₃-Na-type water. The vertical zonation characteristics of the fluorine content decrease with increasing depth to the water table. The high flouride groundwater during the wet season is chiefly controlled by the weathering and dissolution of fluorine-containing minerals, as well as the influence of rock weathering, evaporation and concentration. The weak alkaline environment that is rich in sodium and poor in calcium during the dry season is the main reason for the enrichment of fluorine. Finally, an integrated assessment model is established using rough set theory and an improved matter element extension model, and the level of groundwater pollution caused by fluoride in the Mihe-Weihe River Basin during the wet and dry seasons in the Shandong Peninsula is defined to show the necessity for local management measures to reduce the potential risks caused by groundwater quality.     

中国南方农田养地制度的演变与发展

在田养地制度是耕作制度的重要组成部分．40多年来．我国南方农田生产力能免得到不断提高，是与农田养地制度的不断发展和完善分不开的．本文比较系统和全面地分析、总结了建国以来，我国南方农田土壤耕作制度、农田培肥制度的演变和发展．时指导南方耕作制度的进一步改革、促进南方农业的可持续发展具有重要意义．     

深圳市土地开发和景观生态演变特征分析

本文在探讨深圳市上地资源的利用与开发的基础上,研究分析了其内部景观生态系统类型的结构,功能和组成快速演变的机制和特征。认为深圳市特殊的地理位置,经济发展模式,区位特征和大规模的土地开发是区域景观生态系统类型结构和组成快速演变的根本因素。     

Optimal pollution permit endowments in markets with endogenous emissions

In a permit market with endogenous emissions, both firms and citizens purchase permits. Presented here are static and dynamic models of pollution permit markets with endogenous emissions. The optimal permit endowments are characterized when the regulator faces uncertainty about damages and uncertainty about the severity of the citizens’ collective action problem. Due to the possibility of learning over time, the regulator issues a larger number of permits in the first period of the dynamic model than in the static model.     

不同类型水产养殖对水环境影响的差异及清洁生产探讨

概述了水产养殖的发展现状，系统地介绍了不同类型水产养殖所产生的污染物在种类和数量上存在的差异，并对清洁生产在水产养殖中的应用进行了广泛的探讨。     

试论粘土矿物在淮河水污染治理中的应用前景

文章论述了淮河水污染特征以及粘土矿物的特性，进而指出了粘土矿物在淮河水污染治理中的应用途径和前景．