水库农村移民安置区的确定及土地产权问题研究

水库农村移民安置区的土地产权问题是开发型移民政策中的一个重要问题。本文首先探讨了水库农村移民环境窬一的理论计算公式和常规计算方法，并讨论了据此确定安置区后可能存在的问题。     

A practical method for small area population estimation

Estimating small area populations requires a compromise between precision and rigour, and resource input. Gloucestershire County Council have developed a method for making annual Parish and Ward estimates which the authors claim combines robustness, economy and simplicity with a degree of rigour, using available data sources. The method is described, and an indication of its accuracy given using the 1981 Census data.     

Scale-dependent analysis of an otter–crustacean system in Argentinean Patagonia

The Southern river otter or ‘huillin’, Lontra provocax, is an endangered species endemic of the Andean Patagonian region of Argentina and Chile. It feeds almost exclusively on the genera of macro-crustacea: Aegla and Sammastacus. The aim of this study was to analyse the role of food availability on the huillin’s distribution using a scale-dependent analysis of crustacean and otter distributions. We compared the distributions of otters and macro-crustaceans along a north–south regional gradient, between river basins of northern Patagonia, in an altitudinal gradient within a river basin, and between habitat types within a lake. We investigated the distribution of otters by sign surveys along lake shores, river banks and marine coasts, and of crustaceans using surveys in the water, undigested remains in mink (Mustela vison) scats, presence of external skeletons at the waterside and through interviews with local people. Our results show that there were heterogeneities in the distributions of macro-crustaceans at four scales and these were generally reflected in the distributions of freshwater otters. We conclude that the main factor limiting the distributions of L. provocax in freshwater environments is the availability of macro-crustaceans. This paper shows how scale-dependent type analyses of population distribution serves as a method for identifying key environmental factors for species for which the use of long-term demographies is unfeasible.     

Cannabis use and self-reported collisions in a representative sample of adult drivers

PROBLEM: This study examines the relationships between collision involvement and several measures of cannabis use, including driving after using cannabis, among drivers, based on a population survey of Ontario adults in 2002 and 2003. METHOD: Logistic regression analyses examined self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by lifetime use of cannabis, past year use of cannabis, and past year driving after using cannabis, while controlling for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: We found that the odds of reporting collision involvement was significantly higher among cannabis users, and among those who reported driving after cannabis use. Some evidence for a dose-response relationship was seen as well. DISCUSSION: Cannabis users and people who report driving after cannabis use are also more likely to report being involved in a collision in the past year. These observations suggest that collision prevention efforts could be aimed at these groups. Additional work to determine the causal pathways involved in the relationships observed here is needed. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: None.     

易地扶贫搬迁对西藏典型迁入村可持续发展的影响

基于联合国2030年可持续发展目标（UN-SDGs）,融入生态系统服务,建立了面向易地扶贫搬迁政策的村落和农牧户尺度可持续发展评价指标体系,定量分析了西藏典型易地扶贫搬迁迁入村——白朗村及村内农牧户在搬迁前后可持续发展目标实现状况变化。结果表明：在村落尺度,易地扶贫搬迁实施后迁入村在消除贫困（SDG 1）、能源可持续（SDG 7）和可持续住区（SDG 11）三项目标下的可持续发展指标数值较搬迁前显著增加,但可持续发展指数总分降低2.91%;易地扶贫搬迁政策直接影响的农牧户收入、用水和交通等可持续发展指标的可持续发展指数贡献率从49.4%增加至54.23%,但政策间接影响的生态系统相关的指标,其可持续发展指数贡献率由50.6%降低至45.77%;在农牧户尺度,易地扶贫搬迁显著促进了搬迁农牧户消除贫困（SDG 1）和体面工作（SDG 8）目标的实现,且在村落资源总量有限、大量人口迁入的情况下原住农牧户各项可持续发展指标依然稳定增长。研究为白朗村搬迁后的管理和投入工作提供方向,并为未来其他地区搬迁工作中的土地利用规划制定和迁入人口数量的确定提供思路。     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

A resource-based approach to modelling the dynamics of interacting populations

The procedure for modelling the growth of single-species populations [Sakanoue, S., 2007. Extended logistic model for growth of single-species populations. Ecol. Model. 205, 159–168] is improved to be applicable to the study of the dynamics of interacting populations. The improved procedure is based on three assumptions: resource availability changes with population size as a variable, resource supply to populations and population demand for resources are defined as functions of resource availability and population size, and the variables of resource availability and population size shift in the supply function attracted to the demand function. These assumptions are organized into three equations. The equations can generate the dynamics models of plant, herbivore, and detritivore populations, and their own resources. The models can be used to describe prey–predator dynamics. They naturally contain nonlinear terms for the predator’s numerical and functional responses. Depending on the terms, the fluctuations in resource availability and population size stabilize. The three equations can also generate the dynamics models of different populations consuming the same resources. The analysis of zero isoclines of the models shows that a superior population can be simply defined as one with a higher intrinsic rate of natural increase, that a stable coexistence may be realized with the intraspecific interference or the interspecific facilitation of superiors, and that the interspecific interference or the intraspecific facilitation of inferiors may make the coexistence unstable and the inferiors winners depending on their initial population size.     

Modelling of spatio-temporal population dynamics of earthworms under wetland conditions—An integrated approach

Both the effects of earthworms on soils and the effects of soil conditions on earthworms have been studied with the help of experiments and modelling. This paper provides a model architecture allowing coupling both effects to a dynamic interaction in changing environmental conditions. We chose for a spatio-temporally explicit model and focussed on wetland conditions. Soil temperature and humidity have been modelled by means of finite volumes and were used to determine the spatial habitat suitability. The life cycles of earthworms have been modelled by Leslie matrices where soil humidity, soil temperature and population densities have been used to parametrize survival and transition probabilities. Earthworm dispersion has been described by a cellular automaton of the domain providing spatial population densities for both the life cycle submodel and the soil conditions submodel.     

Quantifying the dynamics of marine invertebrate metacommunities: What processes can maintain high diversity with low densities in the Mediterranean Sea?

The Mediterranean Sea hosts 5.6% of the world benthic invertebrate species on 0.82% of the ocean surface. Mediterranean ecosystems are also characterized by low densities (and biomasses) compared to other oceanic ecosystems, a feature often attributed to their oligotrophic environment. Oligotrophic conditions can induce lower growth rates and higher mortality rates, and a stronger competition for food between individuals. A theoretical model was developed in order to study the diversity vs. density patterns in coastal benthic invertebrate species. This model describes their minimal population dynamics including basic processes (growth, mortality, reproduction and effects of competitive interactions between individuals) and incorporating fluxes of larvae (finally recruited as juveniles) between a mosaic of local habitats. Populations are therefore structured in a metacommunity. The connectivity between local communities is ensured by passive pelagic larval dispersal. In the Mediterranean Sea, because of the microtidal regime, the connectivity between coastal habitats is lower and more variable than in macrotidal basins. Mathematical properties of the model revealed that competitive interactions (intra- and interspecific competitions) have a stabilizing effect on interacting organisms when gains by recruitment are higher than losses by mortality. In addition, low mortality rates and low connectivity which decreases negative local interactions maintains high regional species diversity with low local densities. This property suggested that oligotrophy cannot be the only factor leading to the high diversity–low density pattern observed in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Phenology and population radiation of the nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae) in Hawai’i

The nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), is an invasive pest with established populations on three Hawai’ian islands. Indigenous to Southeast Asia, D. pallivitta caterpillars cause defoliation of ornamental nursery stock and pose a human health hazard due to their urticating hairs that can cause painful skin reactions. Identification of the pheromone component n-butyl (E)-7,9-decadienoate (E7,9-10:COOnBu) from D. pallivitta has made it possible to investigate the phenology and population dynamics using baited traps. Male captures in Jackson traps baited with E7,9-10:COOnBu showed a vegetation preference for tall-grass fields and forest/grass interfaces over forest areas. Microlocation preferences were also found for trap height, with over 65% of males being caught in traps suspended at 1 m, compared with the traps at 3 and 5 m. Captures of male moths in traps baited with live females, and direct observations of female calling behavior, showed peak activities 6–7 h after the onset of scotophase. This is a much later communication period than for D. bradleyi and D. trima and may provide a mechanism by which D. pallivitta maintains reproductive isolation in areas where all three species are present. Coastal and inland transects established in eastern Hawai’i measured aspects of population fluctuations and radiation into new areas with relation to elevation and microclimate. Population expansion was measured by comparing moth population means and 80% population boundaries over time. Both population measures showed a higher expansion for the coastal transect. Differences in population expansion may be attributed in part to temperature and elevation, while precipitation does not seem to have a strong effect. Both the behavioral and ecological data collected can be used to optimize deployment of detection/control strategies and to predict population expansion/risk assessment for establishing quarantine protocols for the nettle caterpillar.