非自愿性移民生产安置中土地公平补偿研究——以湖南皂市水利枢纽工程为例

水利水电工程建设与移民安置会占用淹没区与安置区土地,根据补偿原理,淹没区与安置区理应获得补偿,从公平角度研究其土地补偿,对于增进移民与安置区居民福祉、实现社会公平正义具有积极意义。本文在界定和讨论淹没区与安置区土地公平补偿内涵与范围的基础上,分析了研究区域现行补偿标准的公平性,采用收益还原法和条件价值法分别测算了淹没区与安置区土地的市场价值与非市场价值,并由此测算土地公平补偿。结果表明:1淹没区与安置区土地公平补偿内涵是"损失什么,补偿什么",采取完全补偿原则,能体现"两区"之间的公平,公平补偿范围包括农地市场价值和非市场价值;2研究区域淹没区和安置区水田的市场价值分别是698 558.18元/hm2和573 272.73元/hm2,旱地为457 090.91元/hm2和465 818.18元/hm2;淹没区和安置区水田的非市场价值为50 006.40元/hm2和52 008.36元/hm2,旱地为47 045.65元/hm2和48 278.08元/hm2。3淹没区水田公平补偿测算结果为748 564.58元/hm2,旱地为504 136.56元/hm2;安置区水田公平补偿为625 281.09元/hm2,旱地为514 096.26元/hm2;4现行淹没区水田和旱地补偿标准仅为测算结果的53.77%和53.80%,安置区的补偿标准更是远低于该测算结果。研究结论:研究区域现行土地补偿标准仅能反映部分农地价值,是不完全补偿,同时,有关补偿制度未将淹没区与安置区土地补偿置于平等地位,现行土地补偿标准有失公平;本文基于农户的福利损失测算土地补偿,体现了公平补偿内涵;在土地补偿政策改进方面,应提高淹没区与安置区土地补偿标准,建立完善的社会保障制度,实施更加积极的就业政策等。     

三峡工程的环境与移民问题

三峡水利枢纽是在长江上修建的世界第一大水电站,它规模宏大,举世属目,具有巨大的防洪,发电,航运等综合效益,是开发治理长江的骨干工程。三峡工程建设将对生态与环境产生广泛而深远的影响,为国内外所关注。它的有利影响主要在长江中下游,能有效地抗御洪水和提供巨量的清洁洁能源;不利影响主要是在库区,将形成库区淹没和大量移民。     

潘口水电站移民安置区土地流转补偿标准研究

兴修大中型水利水电工程不可避免地要征收大量农田,造成大量移民非自愿性搬迁.我国实行开发性移民的方针,强调农村移民主要采取农业安置的策略.然而,移民的迁入势必会对安置区居民的土地权益带来负面的影响.因此,根据"卡尔多-希克斯"社会福利改进标准,要实现安置区土地向移民转移过程的社会福利改进,需要对利益受损的安置区集体和居民给予相应的补偿以弥补其福利损失.本文以湖北省竹山县潘口水电站为例,在对竹山县溢水镇、宝丰镇两个乡(镇)5个移民安置点的73户安置区居民进行问卷调查的基础上,运用条件价值法(CVM)对安置区土地流转的补偿标准进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:潘口水电站移民安置区土地流转补偿执行标准均未达到农地实际价值的一半,水田的补偿程度为49.54%.旱地的补偿程度为为44.54%,安置区集体和居民没有获得充分的补偿,因此,需要提高安置区土地流转补偿标准,使安置区居民也能和移民一样地分享到水利水电工程带来的增值收益.     

Reserve Design to Maximize Species Persistence

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and determining the best of the promising solutions using a multiple-comparison statistical test. We use the strategy to address a problem of allocating limited resources to new and existing reserves. The best reserve design depends on emigration, dispersal mortality, and probabilities of movement between reserves. When movement probabilities are symmetric, the best design is to expand a subset of reserves to equal size to exhaust the habitat budget. When movement probabilities are not symmetric, the best design does not expand reserves to equal size and is strongly affected by movement probabilities and emigration rates. We use commercial simulation software to obtain our results.     

Nighttime lights and population changes in Europe 1992–2012

Nighttime satellite photographs of Earth reveal the location of lighting and provide a unique view of the extent of human settlement. Nighttime lights have been shown to correlate with economic development and population but little research has been done on the link between nighttime lights and population change over time. We explore whether population decline is coupled with decline in lighted area and how the age structure of the population and GDP are reflected in nighttime lights. We examine Europe between the period of 1992 and 2012 using a Geographic Information System and regression analysis. The results suggest that population decline is not coupled with decline in lighted area. Instead, human settlement extent is more closely related to the age structure of the population and to GDP. We conclude that declining populations will not necessarily lead to reductions in the extent of land development.     

Comparing the impacts of mitigation and non-mitigation on mountain pine beetle populations

Mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) attack and can ultimately kill individuals and groups of pine trees, specifically lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud var. latifolia Engl.). In British Columbia, beetle attack has increased from 164 000 ha in 1999 to over 13 million ha in 2008. Mitigation efforts can play a key role in addressing the impact beetle infestations can have on the forested landscape. In this research, the impact of mitigation on a mountain pine beetle infestation is examined within a network of 28 research plots where sanitation harvesting was completed (10 mitigated plots) and not completed (18 unmitigated plots). Three forest stand level modelling scenarios which predict the number of attacked trees, based on current infestation within the plots, were utilized to compare the differences between mitigated and non-mitigated plots. In the first scenario in the non-mitigated plots, 125 trees were infested after 10 years, while in the mitigated plots no trees were infested in the same time period. The second scenario indicates the level of mitigation required to suppress beetle infestations where the proportion of mitigated trees was calculated for each plot by counting the residual attack and the number of mitigated trees. The average mitigation rate over all plots of 43% (range 0–100%) is not sufficient to provide control. In the non-mitigated plots, the average population expansion rate was 5 (range of 0–18) which requires a detection accuracy of 74% to reliably detect infestation. The third scenario estimated the length of time required for ongoing detection, monitoring, and mitigation to bring an infestation under control. If mitigation efforts were maintained at the current rate of 43%, the beetle population would not be adequately controlled. However, when aided by continued detection and monitoring of attacked trees, mitigation rates greater than 50% are sufficient to control infestations, especially with persistent implementation, aided by continued detection and monitoring of infested trees.     

大亚湾裸甲藻种群动态及其关键调控因子

2008年1—12月对大亚湾养殖海域裸甲藻种群动态和主要环境因子进行了周年调查。结果表明,大亚湾海域裸甲藻类群以直径约为16～22μm的小型裸甲藻（Gymnodinium sp.）为主,另外米氏凯伦藻（Karenia mikimotoi）、链状裸甲藻（Gymnodnium catenatum）和血红哈卡藻（Akashiwo sanguinea）也有少量出现。裸甲藻种群密度呈现出明显的季节性变化特征：5月出现裸甲藻密度高峰,全年最大密度达到903 cells.mL-1,秋冬季节密度最小。不同站位裸甲藻密度也具有明显的空间分布差异,养殖及近岸海域密度普遍高于外海对照区。相关性分析结果表明,裸甲藻密度的关键调控因子包括温度、化学需氧量（COD）、可溶性有机氮（DON）和尿素浓度。裸甲藻高密度、高频率出现的温度范围在24～26℃,DON和尿素的质量浓度范围分别为N 156.38～187μg·L-1和N 17.4～38.9μg·L-1。在温度适宜的条件下,尿素等有机氮含量的增加可能成为裸甲藻赤潮的触发因子。     

北京山区典型流域不同海拔椴树种群的空间点格局分析

采用点格局分析法对不同海拔的椴树（Tilia miqueliana Maxim.）种群进行分布格局及其种间关系进行了研究。结果表明：整体上群落内以中龄树个体数为最多,小树次之,成年树个体最少。随着海拔的增加可以看出：小树（d≤5 cm）随着海拔的增加而减少,中树（5 cm20 cm）的规律不明显;椴树种群的空间分布格局与空间尺度（25 m内）有密切关系,在较小的空间尺度上倾向于非随机分布,具有明显的空间相关性;在〉15 m或25m的某临界尺度时却倾向于随机分布,同时空间关联变得微弱。随着海拔的增加,各物种聚集分布的尺度有逐渐减小的趋势。种间关系随着海拔的增加,物种间的正相关尺度有增加的趋势。     

Testing the effectiveness of capture mark recapture population estimation techniques using a computer simulation with known population size

Estimation of small mammal population sizes is important for monitoring ecosystem condition and for conservation. Here, we test the accuracy of standard methods of population size estimation using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) on a simulated population of agents. The use of a computer simulation allows complete control of population sizes and behaviors, thereby avoiding assumptions that may be violated in real populations. We find that the recommended protocol for CMR sampling, using uniformly distributed traps, consistently overestimates population sizes by as much as 100% when studies are conducted over only two trapping periods. More than 20 trapping periods are required before this method, or that of placing traps randomly, gives an accurate estimation of population size (i.e., within a 95% confidence limit of the actual value). Non-random sampling, by placing traps on runways used by small mammals, produces the most accurate, and least variable, estimates of population. However, we show that around 10 trapping periods are still required to produce an accurate population estimate using this method. Given that most real populations do not comply with the ‘ideal’ assumptions made by CMR, we suggest that population estimates based on CMR may be fundamentally flawed, and recommend that protocols for CMR population estimation methods may need revising.