环境规制对长三角城市绿色发展的影响——基于技术创新的作用路径分析

环境规制与绿色发展的关系及其作用机制是复杂且有争议的议题。基于长三角41个地级及以上城市2003—2018年的面板数据,首先科学构建绿色发展水平测度的指标体系,计算各城市的绿色发展水平及空间动态演变;其次,借鉴可拓展随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）,构建面板计量模型,深入探究环境规制对城市绿色发展的影响。研究发现：（1）长三角地区环境规制和绿色发展水平均呈上升趋势,但区域差异显著,绿色发展水平从东南向西北,呈现圈层式递减态势,而环境规制强度重心经历了由东南向西北转移的演变。（2）总体上,环境规制显著影响城市绿色发展,两者间存在倒“U”型关系,即过强的环境规制会抑制城市绿色发展水平的提升。（3）环境规制与技术创新之间存在紧密的联动关系,即环境规制主要通过技术创新这一中介路径促进城市绿色发展转型,其中介效应占总效应的比例约为50.1%。因此,在推动长三角一体化高质量发展过程中,应该根据城市绿色发展效率来制定本地的环境规制,并重视提升本地的技术创新水平,进而实现城市绿色发展转型的目标。     

Proximate control of siblicide in cattle egrets: a test of the food-amount hypothesis

Avian sibling aggression plays an important role in controlling food distribution among nest mates. The food-amount hypothesis predicts that the amount of food obtained by siblings acts as a proximate cue controlling their level of aggression. The importance of this cue to cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis) in Oklahoma was evaluated by studying parental feeding rates, food distribution among nestlings, and nestling aggression in three-chick broods [A-(oldest), B-, and C-chicks]. We compared nests in which siblicide occurred to nests where all three chicks survived (nonsiblicide nests). Relative to nonsiblicide nests, siblicide nests received decreasing amounts of food as the day of siblicide approached. Similarly, aggression levels of all three chicks in siblicide nests increased significantly compared with nonsiblicide nests, with most of the aggressive behavior involving B- and C-chicks. As a result, on a per-day basis, food amount and aggression exhibited a strong, negative correlation, thus providing support for the food-amount hypothesis. Though the total amount of food delivered to siblicide nests declined on the days prior to siblicide, the amount of food received by A-chicks in these nests did not. Relative to nonsiblicide nests, A-chicks in siblicide nests received an increased share (percent of volume) of the food delivered at the expense of C-chicks, with the percent remaining the same for B-chicks. The percentage of food B-chicks received the day after siblicide increased significantly from that received the day before siblicide, with no change occurring in either the amount or percentage of food received by A-chicks; clearly, B-chicks were the beneficiary of their aggressive actions that resulted in the death of C-chicks. We provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that aggression is proximately linked to food amount, possibly by a relatively simple cue such as hunger. Received: 25 November 1994/Accepted after revision: 10 February 1996     

The bottlenose dolphin community of Doubtful Sound features a large proportion of long-lasting associations

More than 12 studies of different bottlenose dolphin populations, spanning from tropical to cold temperate waters, have shown that the species typically lives in societies in which relationships among individuals are predominantly fluid. In all cases dolphins lived in small groups characterised by fluid and dynamic interactions and some degree of dispersal from the natal group by both sexes. We describe a small, closed population of bottlenose dolphins living at the southern extreme of the species' range. Individuals live in large, mixed-sex groups in which no permanent emigration/immigration has been observed over the past 7 years. All members within the community are relatively closely associated (average half-weight index>0.4). Both male–male and female–female networks of preferred associates are present, as are long-lasting associations across sexes. The community structure is temporally stable, compared to other bottlenose dolphin populations, and constant companionship seems to be prevalent in the temporal association pattern. Such high degrees of stability are unprecedented in studies of bottlenose dolphins and may be related to the ecological constraints of Doubtful Sound. Fjords are low-productivity systems in which survival may easily require a greater level of co-operation, and hence group stability. These conditions are also present in other cetacean populations forming stable groups. We therefore hypothesise that ecological constraints are important factors shaping social interactions within cetacean societies.Communicated by D. Watts     

Judicious Use of Multiple Hypothesis Tests

Abstract:  When analyzing a table of statistical results, one must first decide whether adjustment of significance levels is appropriate. If the main goal is hypothesis generation or initial screening for potential conservation problems, then it may be appropriate to use the standard comparisonwise significance level to avoid Type II errors (not detecting real differences or trends). If the main goal is rigorous testing of a hypothesis, however, then an adjustment for multiple tests is needed. To control the familywise Type I error rate (the probability of rejecting at least one true null hypothesis), sequential modifications of the standard Bonferroni method, such as Holm's method, will provide more statistical power than the standard Bonferroni method. Additional power may be achieved through procedures that control the false discovery rate (FDR) (the expected proportion of false positives among tests found to be significant). Holm's sequential Bonferroni method and two FDR-controlling procedures were applied to the results of multiple-regression analyses of the relationship between habitat variables and the abundance of 25 species of forest birds in Japan, and the FDR-controlling procedures provided considerably greater statistical power.     

Effects of maternal nutrition on post-weaning growth in two North American rodents

The Trivers-Willard hypothesis of sex-biased maternal investment in response to fluctuations in resource availability has provided a theoretical foundation for research on maternal investment for more than two decades. Their hypothesis holds that mothers in poor condition as a result of poor resource availability should bias parental investment towards offspring with the highest probability of reproducing. In the polygynous mating system of mammals where males compete for breeding access to females, the hypothesis predicts investment favoring females. Although data from many systems have supported this hypothesis, other systems do not follow the predicted patterns and have resulted in various alternative hypotheses. The present research was designed to test whether differences in body condition of young reared by nutritionally stressed dams relative to young reared by unstressed dams were maintained into adulthood, one of the fundamental assumptions underlying the Trivers-Willard hypothesis. Post-weaning growth in eastern woodrats (Neotoma floridana) and northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster) was examined relative to maternal nutritional plane. Individuals from undernourished dams were lighter than their unrestricted counterparts at weaning but no difference was evident by the time they had reached adult size. Failure to maintain body condition differences into adulthood violates one of the assumptions essential for application of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis of maternal investment patterns. Although the Trivers-Willard model proposed that natural selection favors differential investment in the sexes over the entire course of parental investment, evidence from this and other studies suggests that the Trivers-Willard hypothesis might not be appropriate to address maternal investment questions in postnatally malnourished dams, but instead should be restricted to systems concerned with prenatal maternal condition or resource availability. Received: 22 February 1995/Accepted after revision: 30 December 1995     

Ecological correlates of duckling adoption among white-winged scoters Melanitta fusca: strategy, epiphenomenon, or combination?

Young waterfowl can frequently join foster females shortly after hatch, resulting in post-hatch brood amalgamation. Much uncertainty remains about physiological or ecological factors that motivate adoption including potential costs and benefits to fostered offspring as well as to females that either lose or accept young. Several hypotheses have been put forth to explain adoption. In this paper, we examine the salvage strategy (SSH) and accidental-mixing (AMH) hypotheses. According to the SSH, females abandon or lose their young due to substantial energetic constraints from incubation and brood rearing. The AMH posits that adoption results from local ecological conditions on breeding areas (i.e., adverse weather conditions, high brood densities) which act to separate offspring and mothers. We used multistate modeling to estimate relationships between probabilities of adoption by white-winged scoter (Melanitta fusca) ducklings from natal to foster females and a set of hypothesized ecological covariates. Results showed that most adoption occurred within 6 days of hatch; additionally, likelihood of adoption was positively related to inclement weather and negatively related to hatch date, size, and condition of natal females, and duckling condition. We conclude that adoption in this population is consistent with both the salvage strategy and accidental-mixing hypotheses. Ultimately, we suggest that adoption in our study population was foremost an outcome of intense gull predation but also of local environmental conditions.     

我国城市牺牲性、损耗性蔓延假说及其验证——以徐州市为例

论文针对当前中国城市蔓延这一牵动国家可持续发展和公众普遍关注的复杂问题,将其归结为突破"合理界线"、逼近"生存红线"、逾越"和谐主线"三大症结。以此"三条线"为研究切入点,从地价均衡视角,提出城市牺牲性、损耗性蔓延假说,并以徐州市为例加以实证。结果表明:其一,理论分析判断,与国外城市福利性和亏损性蔓延不同,我国城市蔓延区分为牺牲性和损耗性两类,同时存在理想、适度和极限三个边界;其二,测算结果显示,徐州市农地资源的综合价值为9.58×10⁶元/hm²,其中市场价值为5.93×10⁶元/hm²,另外38.07%的非市场价值(生态和社会价值之和)由于市场和制度不完善而很难显化;第三,实证分析检验,徐州市牺牲性蔓延规模为1.08×10⁴ hm²,其中占用耕地为4.32×10³ hm²,损耗性蔓延规模为2.83×10³ hm²,其中占用耕地为8.81×10² hm²,从而验证了研究假说。基于研究结论,论文建议未来我国城市治理和土地政策应该做出两步调整:第一步,首先转变经济发展方式和政绩考核体系,通过适度边界调控并加大基本农田等关键资源保护考核权重,有效遏制政府失灵引起的城市损耗性蔓延;第二步,尽快完善土地市场机制,将农地资源外部成本内部化,并作为城市蔓延扩张治理决策创新的主要依据。     

Antipredator strategies of house finches: are urban habitats safe spots from predators even when humans are around?

Urbanization decreases species diversity, but it increases the abundance of certain species with high tolerance to human activities. The safe-habitat hypothesis explains this pattern through a decrease in the abundance of native predators, which reduces predation risk in urban habitats. However, this hypothesis does not consider the potential negative effects of human-associated disturbance (e.g., pedestrians, dogs, cats). Our goal was to assess the degree of perceived predation risk in house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) through field studies and semi-natural experiments in areas with different levels of urbanization using multiple indicators of risk (flock size, flight initiation distance, vigilance, and foraging behavior). Field studies showed that house finches in more urbanized habitats had a greater tendency to flock with an increase in population density and flushed at larger distances than in less urbanized habitats. In the semi-natural experiment, we found that individuals spent a greater proportion of time in the refuge patch and increased the instantaneous pecking rate in the more urbanized habitat with pedestrians probably to compensate for the lower amount of foraging time. Vigilance parameters were influenced in different ways depending on habitat type and distance to flock mates. Our results suggest that house finches may perceive highly urbanized habitats as more dangerous, despite the lower number of native predators. This could be due to the presence of human activities, which could increase risk or modify the ability to detect predators. House finches seem to adapt to the urban environment through different behavioral strategies that minimize risk.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

铬污染场地调查数据评估与暴露浓度估计

针对某铬污染场地调查采样得到的1 269个土壤w(TCr)和w〔Cr(Ⅵ)〕,分别采用检出限替代法和Walsh's Test方法分析了未检出值和潜在的异常值.结果表明,异常值的取舍对数据的统计分析结果影响较大,结合该铬污染场地的实际情况和采样记录,最终保留了潜在异常值. 分别采用Q-Q图示法和假设检验方法探讨了该铬污染场地土壤w(TCr)和w〔Cr(Ⅵ)〕的数据分布形态发现,二者均不符合3种常见的分布形态(即正态分布、对数正态分布和Gamma分布),因此,采用基于切比雪夫不等式的非参数方法计算该铬污染场地调查数据的95%UCL(置信区间上限值),确定w(TCr)和w〔Cr(Ⅵ)〕的暴露值分别为0.285 6%和0.022 7%.