推进我国减灾事业的三个支柱

本文阐述推进我国减灾事业的3个支柱,即:(1)发挥政府的主导作用;(2)重视科学技术在减灾中的作用;(3)依靠全民的参与。     

结构分析中模拟与仿真技术研究

由于像洪水、水灾、地震这样一类自然灾害的原型重复试验几乎是不可能的,因此计算机仿真技术在这一领域的应用具有重要的意义。本文探索了土木工程中模拟与仿真的概念、特征及实现途径,阐述了关于仿真智能化、可视化的技术细节及仿真的基本思路;结合面向对象程序设计（OOP）概念,提出了结构分析程序设计的原则及标准。在此基础上,编写了基于Windows的结构有限元分析软件SmartSEA.     

浅论灾害科学的研究现状

在查阅了大量灾害科学方面的专著、期刊、学位论文和其它文献资料的基础上 ,本文试图对国内外的灾害科学研究现状进行粗浅的讨论     

成果管理的政策导向刍议

从成果管理的政策导向必须是领导行为、成果管理的政策导向作用必须贯穿于管理的全过程、成果管理的政策导向作用是成果管理的原动力等方面探讨了成果管理的导向问题，从而提出了成果管理导向的参考做法。     

安全科学管理与人为失效研究——分析铁路运输中的人为失效规律

本文论述了安全科学中的人为失效理论与实践问題,即理论上研究了作为一门独立的人为安全学的基本范畴及框架,实践上分析了北京铁路分局某站近30年的事故情况,还探讨了减少人为事故对铁路安全运输的意义、作用及实施对策。     

论“安全”及“安全性”的概念

对当前有关安全概念的多种定义均存在内涵或外延不准确的问题进行研讨;将与安全问题相关的客观事物区分为"可遭受损害事物"和"可导致损害事物",并分别对应于"安全"概念和"安全性"概念;在明确所涉及对象事物的基础上,对安全概念与安全性概念准确把握各自的内涵和外延,分别给出用"属加种差"方式描述的定义。笔者认为:安全是"具有特定功能或属性的事物,在内部和外部因素及其相互作用下,足以保持其正常的、完好的状态,而免遭非期望损害的现象";安全性是"某事物在一定的条件下和一定的时间内,导致其他事物或其自身发生非期望损害的能力"。     

基于热风险理论对道化学评价中物质系数的研究

随着本质安全研究的深入,道化学评价方法中物质系数MF的计算已不能准确描述反应物本身的热风险大小。在道化学评价方法中引入热风险概念,比较热危险性评价方法和道化学评价方法间相异点;以六甲基磷酰三胺工艺为研究对象,用DSC量热仪对反应物进行分析得出放热速率q、反应波峰峰值、单位质量的反应焓Hr,对采集的工艺参数用热力学理论外推法、基因贡献法得出活化能E、比热容CP并以此求出最大反应失效时间TMRad、绝热温升Qad、物质系数MF值以及工艺单元中物料量。得出最大反应失效时间与物质系数MF间具有相关性,道化学评价方法对因失效反应引发二次反应的热风险评估也适用。     

Why we need theory in the organization sciences

To make the case that theory is a necessary part of research in the organization sciences, I develop three lines of argument. In the first, drawing upon Staw and Sutton's (1995, “What theory is not” Administrative Science Quarterly, 40, 371–384) classic piece, I outline the boundaries of theory and, using a recently published empirical article as an example, demonstrate how research based on literature references and line‐and‐box diagrams instead of explanatory theory can make only a limited contribution to the literature. I next discuss more generally the pitfalls of conducting research without first developing theory, citing the example of malaria. In the final section of the article, I defend the role of theory‐review articles, such as those published in the Academy of Management Review, and illustrate (again by reference to an example) how such articles are critical to advancing organizational research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

Advancing injury and violence prevention through data science

Introduction: The volume of new data that is created each year relevant to injury and violence prevention continues to grow. Furthermore, the variety and complexity of the types of useful data has also progressed beyond traditional, structured data. In order to more effectively advance injury research and prevention efforts, the adoption of data science tools, methods, and techniques, such as natural language processing and machine learning, by the field of injury and violence prevention is imperative. Method: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Injury Prevention and Control has conducted numerous data science pilot projects and recently developed a Data Science Strategy. This strategy includes goals on expanding the availability of more timely data systems, improving rapid identification of health threats and responses, increasing access to accurate health information and preventing misinformation, improving data linkages, expanding data visualization efforts, and increasing efficiency of analytic and scientific processes for injury and violence, among others. Results: To achieve these goals, CDC is expanding its data science capacity in the areas of internal workforce, partnerships, and information technology infrastructure. Practical Application: These efforts will expand the use of data science approaches to improve how CDC and the field address ongoing injury and violence priorities and challenges.