环境专家系统

本文介绍了国内外环境专家系统的发展状况。环境专家系统成功的应用表明环境专家系统是解决环境问题的一个有力工具，环境专家系统将越来越广泛地应用于环境科学中，环境专家系统与决策支持系统相结合以及将神经网络技术应用于环境专家系统中，是环境专家系统的发展方向，文中还介绍了我们正在研究的大气污染总量控制规划专家系统。     

对自然资源的再思考

自然资源问题历来受到人们的重视。本文从人类利用的角度，进一步剖析了自然资源的定义和本质，导出自然资源能否持续利用是资源短缺问题的关键，归纳出造成资源短缺的四个主要原因。最后，以人类活动与地理环境相互作用为出发点，提出资源科学是以自然资源系统为研究对象的学科体系。     

两种管理科学方法在城市化SEA中的应用

城市化和城市发展已经成为世界关注的焦点。正确看待城市化SEA，并将管理科学中的方法结合，从定性到定量综合集成(meta—synthesis)引入城市化SEA进行初步探讨。     

盐度胁迫对云纹石斑鱼鳃离子调节酶及渗透压的影响

为探讨云纹石斑鱼鳃离子调节酶活力及血清渗透压对盐度骤降的响应,设置4个盐度梯度(27、21、15和9)对云纹石斑鱼进行盐度骤降胁迫试验,在0、1 d、2 d、3 d和7 d时取样,测定其鳃中Na+/K+-ATP(NKA)酶、Ca~(2+)-ATP酶(Ca~(2+)-ATPase)、琥珀酸脱氢酶(SDH)、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)活力及血清渗透压。结果表明,盐度21组与15组NKA及Ca~(2+)-ATPase活力在第1 d大幅上升,显著高于对照组(p0.05),随后下降趋于稳定,而盐度9组NKA及Ga2+-ATPase活力一直呈下降趋势;血清渗透压呈先下降后上升的变化趋势(p0.05);SDH活力变化与离子酶一致(p0.05);LDH活力变化与离子酶相反(p0.05)。研究表明,在盐度骤降的情况下,云纹石斑鱼鳃进行渗透压调节分为两个阶段,一是应激反应阶段,此时NKA及Ca~(2+)-ATPase迅速升高,血清渗透压降低;二是适应阶段,离子酶活力下降趋于稳定,血清渗透压升高恢复至正常水平,而且SDH与LDH酶活力也相应变化,为渗透压调节提供能量。     

旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全的评价及改进

针对旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工过程中存在诸多安全隐患的问题,首先,结合此类项目遗留工业垃圾冗杂、施工场地狭窄、部分构件拆换、大型机械使用受限的施工特点从4MTE角度构建施工安全评价指标体系。然后,在考虑指标赋权的主客观综合性与评价工作的未确知性后,建立了基于结构熵权法与未确知测度理论的旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全评价模型,并通过工程实例验证该模型,得出的评价结果与实际情况相符。最后,结合未确知测度单因素指标测度函数的特点,提出了施工安全管理改进策略的制定方法。     

民航维修人员习惯性违章行为的SD建模研究

掌握习惯性违章行为形成过程中的反馈机制和发展规律可以为消除习惯性违章行为提供理论依据。基于系统动力学(SD)理论,建立了民航机务维修人员习惯性违章行为的动态模型,利用VENSIM软件模拟仿真。结果表明,惩罚力度从第1等级(惩罚力度由小到大分别对应1~10等级)到第6等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次减小,从第6等级到第10等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次增加。此外习惯性违章行为活跃水平对工作单卡的合理程度敏感性最强,组织应优先提高工作单卡的合理程度。     

A practical dialogue protocol for sustainability science to contribute to regional resources management: its implementation in Réunion

Over the last decade, adaptive co‐management has been recommended as a policy framework to address complex and uncertain resources management issues. Implementing this theoretical management concept requires the integration of multidisciplinary research and local knowledge. Yet practical protocols to link science, policymaking and societies have yet to be developed. We designed a protocol to produce legitimate, credible and relevant solutions to a regional resources management issue. This is a two‐component protocol. A stakeholder grid categorizes stakeholder representatives in three distinct specialized dialogue arenas: institution representatives, technical experts and local end‐users. An iterative co‐design process then builds on these arenas to assess the institutional legitimacy, technical credibility and empirical relevance dimensions of a common solution initiated by an initial plausible promise. We tested this framework in Réunion to address organic waste management issues at the regional level. The plausible solution explored was the introduction of a recycling industry involved in collecting organic waste and producing and selling organic fertilizers tailored for local crop systems. The protocol application outcomes were consolidated and documented scenarios accepted by all, with knowledge exchange and the broad spread of a stabilized expectation contributing to private initiatives and public policy change.     

Procedural influences on scientific advisory work: the case of chemical hazard characterization

The quality of science for policy depends as much on the robustness of available scientific knowledge as it does on the procedural settings and working procedures in safety agencies. Using a report on Bisphenol A as a case study, and a set of original criteria, we provide an understanding of procedural influences on the results of scientific advisory committees and about literature reviews for chemical hazard characterization. Expert elicitation revealed that three aspects are critically important for the results of the advisory activity and for the selected case study: the method used to combine different studies, the interpretation of the review results in terms of level of evidence and conclusiveness, and the choice of uncertainty factors. Our results also show how procedural settings and working procedures can promote the invisible influence of values and policy on scientific advisory activities.     

Ecological knowledge and North Sea environmental policies

In an analysis of North Sea eutrophication science and policies, focusing on the period 1980–2005, it was investigated how scientific information was used in policy-making. The analysis focused on the central assumptions of the rational policy-making model, i.e. that scientific information can be used to formulate decisions, based upon objective scientific information (rational decision-making), and secondly, can support implementing these decisions (rational management). In general terms, the following was concluded:

• •More knowledge has increased rather than reduced uncertainty;
• •In order to handle the problem of dealing with complexity and uncertainty at the political level, a simplification of facts has occurred, in this case focusing on nutrients as the main cause of the problem, at the same time excluding other possible causes;
• •Both the limited scientific view (i.e. the nutrient view) and the exaggeration of the seriousness of the problem (impacts, scope) have been used as an authoritative basis for the justification of political decisions. Both were not supported by the majority of the scientific community;
• •New scientific knowledge, not in support of existing policies, has been excluded from the policy process;
• •The science–policy interface, mainly consisting of “civil-servant scientists”, that emerged and increased its influence over the period of investigation, has been the central element in the simplification and exclusion process.

The main lesson learned is that work at the interface of science and policy must be subject to democratic principles, i.e. be transparent and involving all parties with a stake in the issue under consideration.     

热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析

采用层次分析法对热磨试间火灾爆炸风险进行分析,以某企业热磨试间内热磨合作业过程为例建立了评价模型。为提高层次分析法的准确性和有效性,在层次分析法之前,引入事故树,通过事故树确定各级指标,在层次分析法之后,通过与模糊数学相结合,对模型进行模糊评价,得出模型所处等级D=0.7087,即该企业热磨试间火灾爆炸风险为"危险性较大"等级。研究表明,"事故树-模糊层次分析法"应用于热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析是可行的,有助于企业有针对性地制定安全措施,预防热磨试间火灾爆炸事故的发生。