Climate, entropy and environment

The IPCC Working Groups I–III 2007 publications does not consider the question of the influence of the entropy increase in the atmosphere on current climate development. An investigation into this question, both in general terms as well as by two quantitative approaches, reveals we must consider the entropy produced by man in connection with climate development, especially with regard to the temperature increase of the atmosphere. The IPCC report also fails to mention the production of CO₂ by humans and livestock, but calculations show we must also consider such greenhouse gas CO₂ production. For solving the mitigating processes, we therefore have to take into account both the human induced entropy production and the direct human and livestock CO₂ output. In consideration of these findings, it seems necessary to introduce an “entropy identity” to people who wish to be able to continue to live on the planet. The introduction of an entropy tax might also help in solving the most urgent fundamental problem humanity has ever had to face. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Modeling Abundance Index Data from Anuran Calling Surveys

Abstract:  Evaluation of anuran populations is commonly based on calling surveys that report categorical abundance index data. I present a statistical model for abundance index data that are observations representing ordered abundance classes (e.g., none, some, many). The proposed model provides a formal treatment of detection probability, factors that affect detection, and variation in abundance. The model can be viewed as a generalization of that proposed by MacKenzie et al. (2002) for estimating site-occupancy rates in that it allows for more than two abundance classes. Because the abundance distribution is characterized by multiple abundance classes, it may be more sensitive to subtle changes in the underlying abundance that may go undetected with simple occupancy estimates under which sites are characterized merely as occupied or not. The method is most immediately applicable to surveys of anurans in which index data related to the intensity of calling activity are collected. I applied the proposed method to calling index data from the green frog (  Rana clamitans ) collected as part of the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program. The best model indicated considerable variation in detectability over time and in response to temperature. The resulting adjusted (for detectability) abundance-state distribution demonstrates the negative bias in abundance state obtained from simplistic summaries of calling index data that disregard these sources of variation in detectability.     

MISSOURI RIVER - THE NEW COMPACTING GAME1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the recent interest in management of the Missouri River. Interstate issues in the river basin include interbasin water diversions, riverbed and shoreline degradation, loss of recreational and natural areas, reduction in navigation capacity, the status of the Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program in terms of general river development, and the elimination of river basin commissions, An attempt to develop a comprehensive interstate water compact failed in the 1950s. The new efforts towards establishing a compact are discussed, as well as other available mechanisms for resolution of the current political and legal differences among the ten river basin states.     

Estimating Population Size of Elusive Animals with DNA from Hunter-Collected Feces: Four Methods for Brown Bears

Abstract:  Noninvasive genetic methods can be used to estimate animal abundances and offer several advantages over conventional methods. Few attempts have been made, however, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the estimates. We compared four methods of estimating population size based on fecal sampling. Two methods used rarefaction indices and two were based on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) estimators, one combining genetic and field data. Volunteer hunters and others collected 1904 fecal samples over 2 consecutive years in a large area containing a well-studied population of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ). On our 49,000-km² study area in south-central Sweden, population size estimates ranged from 378 to 572 bears in 2001 and 273 to 433 bears in 2002, depending on the method of estimation used. The estimates from the best model in the program MARK appeared to be the most accurate, based on the minimum population size estimate from radio-marked bears in a subsection of our sampling area. In addition, MARK models included heterogeneity and temporal variation in detection probabilities, which appeared to be present in our samples. All methods, though, incorrectly suggested a biased sex ratio, probably because of sex differences in detection probabilities and low overall detection probabilities. The population size of elusive animals can be estimated reliably over large areas with noninvasive genetic methods, but we stress the importance of an adequate and well-distributed sampling effort. In cases of biased sampling, calibration with independent estimates may be necessary. We recommend that this noninvasive genetic approach, using the MARK models, be used in the future in areas where sufficient numbers of volunteers can be mobilized.     

Testing the validity of a critical sulfur and nitrogen load model in southern Ontario, Canada, using soil chemistry data from MARYP

The validity of a steady-state massbalance model (Arp et al., 1996; referred to asARP) was tested using physicochemical soil data fromthe Monitoring Acid Rain Youth Program (MARYP). FourARP sites were matched with ten MARYP sites accordingto proximity, bedrock type and subsoil pH to test thevalidity of the ARP model for critical loadexceedances. Soil solution pH, base concentration andAl concentration from MARYP sites, which were wellmatched to ARP sites, validated the modelled criticalload exceedances. Higher exceedance areas wereassociated with more acidic pH and lower base andhigher Al concentrations from matched MARYP sites andvice versa. One ARP site was inappropriately matchedwith MARYP sites and could not be validated using baseand Al concentrations. This study also confirmed thesouthern limit of the zero critical load exceedanceisopleth from the model. However, variability of theother exceedance isopleths was noted due to thelimited number of sites used in the model. Thevalidation of these sites in the ARP model and thezero critical load exceedance isopleth nonethelessallows greater confidence in using this model as amanagement tool for acidic deposition.     

The influence of race and gender on perceptions of community impact

Since 1968, research in public transportation planning has included an increasing number of analyses of the perceptions and attitudes of people who use and live in proximity to the systems (Nash and Hille 1968, McMillan et al. 1969, Wachs 1976). The results of the study reported here suggest that race and gender may explain more about attitudes toward the community impact of a transit system than do the levels of user satisfaction with the system. The implication for future research in this area is that surveys employing “satisfaction” and “importance” as indicators may not be using appropriate indices of evaluation. This study reports the results of a 1980 attitude survey of the perceptions of black and white men and women living within a two-block corridor along the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA) east line in Atlanta, Georgia. The research supports the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) Transit Impact Monitoring Program (TIMP). The survey used a stratified random sample technique to identify 100 households in which in-home interviews were subsequently conducted. A further stratified sampling procedure designated the gender and age of persons to be interviewed. The analysis included the isolation of responses by gender and race and used the chi-square statistic at the 0.05 significance level. The results identity differences in responses of males and females, blacks and whites.     

清洁能源实施效果评价

2001年11月启动的中国国家"十五"攻关重大专项"清洁能源行动"涉及17个试点示范城市,经过3年多的探索与实施,取得了明显成效.着重从污染物排放、空气质量、清洁能源消费、人均能耗和万元产值能耗等环境效益方面对清洁能源实施效果进行科学评价,为推广试点示范城市的先进经验和城市可持续发展提供依据.     

上海市在用车I／M计划管理体系的探讨

在用机动车监测与维修制度（I／M计划）是减少机动车污染排放的最主要措施。借鉴美国I／M计划取得的经验，提出上海市在用车I／M 计划管理体系，建立上海市I／M 计划管理中心和监测 中心。     

Benders计算机程序库的开发及其在环境规划中的应用

混合整变量线性规划模型在国外许多行业和我国环境规划领域得到广泛应用。Benders分解算法是求解大规模混合整变量线性规划问题的一种先进技术,该技术在国外求解运输问题和网络问题范畴的实际问题得到了成功。我们应用Benders技术研制开发了大型计算机软伴;这是在我国系统工程领域和国际环境规划工作中的首次应用。在程序库开发工作中,引进和采用了当今国际上先进的运筹学方法和计算机技术。程序库在求解实际的环境规划问题中获得了初步的成功。我们应用所开发的程序库和数学模型求解了一个具有635个约束条件,1087个变量(其中0—1整变量为126个)的实际城市综合整冶规划问题。这是至今国内所求解的最大规模的混合整变量线性规划问题,也是国际上用Benders方法求解的最大的环境规划问题。