海面上升对太湖流域经济影响的模拟与评估

以地处长江三角洲核心部位的太湖流域为研究区,应用Bootstrap方法预测了各市县至2030年的GDP值,进而基于海面-地面系统演变模型,就海平面上升到2030年对区域经济的影响进行了多场景模拟与评价。结果表明:由于区域内经济发达的市县多处于地势低平的地区,未来海面上升对太湖流域区域经济发展影响极为显著,其影响程度主要取决于各县市地形地貌条件及其经济发展水平。当海面上升值为23 cm、31 cm和60 cm时,受影响面积和GDP损失分别高达13.2%～24.0%和15.7%～26.9%。海面上升影响表现出区域分异的特征,以太湖、长江及其各支流为中心向外扩张,中部平原、洼地受影响较为严重,外围的北部和东部受影响较小。区域未来发展应考虑分区治理及区域内联合策略,以积极应对海面上升的可能威胁。     

黑河流域湿地保护现状及对策建议

黑河是我国第二大内陆河,流域内湖泊、沼泽遍布,湿地资源丰富。多年来人们对黑河环境的重要性认识不足,导致植被退化、水位下降、土地盐渍化,影响湿地资源的永续利用,制约当地经济社会可持续发展。鉴于此,建立了黑河湿地国家级自然保护区,实施湿地保护与恢复和污染治理工程,增强退耕还林(草)、退地还湿、防沙治沙力度,探索和运用生态补偿机制。     

Study on the Non-point Source Pollution in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Basin

The Taoer River basin is the epitome in the west of Northeast China and it is one of the most fragile and sensitive ecoregions. Thus, protection of water quality of the Taoer River is important. Not only point source pollution but non-point source (NPS) pollution results in deteriorating water quality. In this study, long-term hydrologic impact assessment model was used to evaluate the impacts of land use change impacts on NPS pollution, and the replacement cost method was used to calculate the economic loss caused by NPS pollution. Through analyzing the NPS pollutant loads of different land categories and the economic loss, the article puts forward that there exists a close relationship between land-use types and NPS pollution, and agricultural pollution is the main component of the NPS pollution in this area. The results of this study can provide decision-making basis for agricultural development and land-use change.     

赣江源头流域植被变化的水文响应模拟研究

应用2个分布式水文模型（SWAT和Topmodel模型）,对赣江流域的源头--梅江流域20年内的植被变化所造成的生态水文响应做出了模拟研究。根据2个模型不同的特点,设计了不同的模拟方案,使用SWAT模型模拟径流量的变化,Topmodel模型模拟汇流过程的变化。模拟得到的结果是：排除研究时间段内流域气候变化的影响,仅变换流域下垫面的属性,植被的变化对流域水文特征产生了明显影响,在整个梅江流域的范围内,2000年的年径流总量比1987年增加了146%;在其子流域--琴江流域,1995~2000年的7次洪峰峰值径流出现时间比1987年延迟,峰值径流量减少约5%。这说明从上世纪80年代开始在该流域内进行的植树造林和国土整治工作,即江西省“山江湖工程”,对流域的生态健康具有良好的回馈效应。     

赤水河流域产业状况与综合流域管理策略

赤水河流域位于川、滇、黔3省接壤地带,流域面积 18 932 km2,流经贵州、云南、四川的13个县市。目前,赤水河流域依然是长江上游生态环境、水质最好的一级支流。促进流域环境保护与经济的协调发展,是地区在进行流域管理的难题。通过研究发现,赤水河流域上、中、下游具有显著的产业特点。上游主要以煤电行业为主,污染大,过度垦殖导致水土流失严重;中游以优质白酒为主导的轻工产业为主,但政府发展规划上却突出了重工业发展的重要性;下游地区具有良好的生态环境并开展了初步规模的自然生态旅游,但在产业发展上受到上、中游地区的严重影响和限制。因此,流域的产业发展对整个流域的环境保护和经济可持续发展的影响很大,而现行的流域管理却忽视了产业布局的整体考虑。通过赤水河流域环境问题和产业发展以及相互之间关系的分析,通过综合流域管理的思想,提出建立全流域统一的环境保护机制的策略,把流域的环境特点转化为经济发展的要素,促进流域环境的保护和经济的协调发展。     

陕西省渭河流域各城区水资源社会可再生性评价

陕西省渭河流域位于干旱、半干旱区,流域内许多城市都面临着水资源短缺问题.水资源社会可再生性是水资源在利用过程中所表现出的特性,其值的增强对于实现水资源的高效利用具有重要意义.本文针对陕西省渭河流域提出了基于若干指标来综合表征缺水城市水资源社会可再生性的方法,并在此基础上对该漉域6个城区的水资源社会可再生性进行了评价.通过建立城市水资源社会可再生性评价指标体系、分级评价标准.引入灰色关联理论,构建了灰色关联分析等级评价模型,并运用该模型分析了研究区域内各城区的水资源可再生程度.研究结果表明,宝鸡的水资源社会可再生性最强,西安、咸阳较强,杨凌区中等.渭南、铜川较弱.本文最后提出了增强这些城市水资源社会可再生性的途径.     

Seasonal and Long‐Term Variations in Hydraulic Head in a Karstic Aquifer: Roswell Artesian Basin,New Mexico1

Abstract: Water levels in the karstic San Andres limestone aquifer of the Roswell Artesian Basin, New Mexico, display significant variations on a variety of time scales. Large seasonal fluctuations in hydraulic head are directly related to the irrigation cycle in the Artesian Basin, lower in summer months and higher in winter when less irrigation occurs. Longer‐term variations are the result of both human and climatic factors. Since the inception of irrigated farming more than a century ago, over‐appropriation of water resources has caused water levels in the artesian aquifer to fall by as much as 70 m. The general decline in hydraulic head began to reverse in the mid‐1980s due to a variety of conservation measures, combined with a period of elevated rainfall toward the end of the 20th Century.     

WATER QUALITY IN SHALLOW ALLUVIAL AQUIFERS,UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN,COLORADO, 19971

ABSTRACT: Shallow ground water in areas of increasing urban development within the Upper Colorado River Basin was sampled for inorganic and organic constituents to characterize water‐quality conditions and to identify potential anthropogenic effects resulting from development. In 1997, 25 shallow monitoring wells were installed and sampled in five areas of urban development in Eagle, Grand, Gunnison, and Summit Counties, Colorado. The results of this study indicate that the shallow ground water in the study area is suitable for most uses. Nonparametric statistical methods showed that constituents and parameters measured in the shallow wells were often significantly different between the five developing urban areas. Radon concentrations exceeded the proposed USEPA maximum contaminant level at all sites. The presence of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds indicate anthropogenic activities are affecting the shallow ground‐water quality in the study area. Nitrate as N concentrations greater than 2.0 mg/L were observed in ground water recharged between the 1980s and 1990s. Low concentrations of methylene blue active substances were detected at a few sites. Total coliform bacteria were detected at ten sites; however, E. coli was not detected. Continued monitoring is needed to assess the effects of increasing urban development on the shallow ground‐water quality in the study area.     

基于TM影像的石羊河流域土地利用变化研究

根据1999年和2010年两期影像数据,在遥感软件EDARS IMAGINE9.1的支持下对图像进行技术处理,通过计算机自动分类方法提取土地利用信息,将石羊河流域土地利用类型分为耕地、草地、林地、建筑用地、水域及未利用地,同时利用数学模型和景观生态学理论,分析了石羊河流域土地利用变化的时空特征和格局变化。研究结果表明,1999-2010年间耕地和未利用地的面积变化最大,变化量占到总流域面积的比例分别为3.94%和2.42%;水域、林地、耕地的土地利用动态度明显,依次为3.06%,1.82%和1.12%;11年间草地、耕地和水域的流转较为剧烈,变化速率较快;11年间石羊河流域的土地利用偏离度为持续缓慢下降的趋势,下降幅度达到0.04,土地利用活动对自然景观的干预趋于缓和;景观优势度增大,景观多样性和景观均匀度有所减少,人类活动对景观格局影响明显;人口、经济因素和政策因素在短时间尺度上对土地利用变化的影响较为显著。     

东江流域水资源优化配置研究

该文建立了一个以东江流域水资源合理利用为目标,考虑防洪、供水、航运、压咸等约束,采用大系统“分解协调”原理,运用逐步宽容约束法及递阶分析法,通过三大水库与河道、区间径流联合调度,进行自流域至供水行业的多层次优化的水资源优化配置模型。在特枯水年来水情况下,对2020年水平年水资源进行优化调配,得出各个用水户两种不同初始条件下的配水结果。说明只有在三大水库初始蓄满的条件下,才能满足特枯年各个用水户2020水平年的需水要求。