黄河流域人居环境的地方性与适应性：挑战和机遇

黄河流域由于自然环境、地理区位的特殊性,其人居环境处于不断变化的复杂过程中,并且始终面临着严峻挑战。而人居环境空间与自然、社会各要素的耦合过程,源于人地关系变化进程中呈现出的动态、综合、系统性的适应机制。因而揭示系统适应性机制是解决黄河流域人居环境困境的关键。为此,本文以“地方性与适应性”为视角,邀请来自黄河流域青海、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西、山西、河南、山东等省区的专家学者,从自然地理、社会经济、城乡发展、遗产保护等视角解读黄河流域的人居环境特征,并为适应中国新型城镇化路径寻找可持续策略。核心观点如下：总体而言,黄河流域的人居环境适应性具有多尺度空间关联性和历史地理依赖性;黄河流域承担着重要的生态功能,但不同区段的自然环境面临着土地盐碱化、水土流失、环境污染等问题,需要推动人地耦合关系的绿色化;黄河流域特别是上游沿线聚落具有鲜明的开放性、民族文化多样性和交融性特色,多民族协同共荣发展是必由之路;黄河中上游因复杂的自然环境形成了窑洞等特殊的聚落空间,在快速城镇化进程中面临着转变和消失,留住传统聚落的文化基因,亟需分级分类推进其演化进程;黄河流域城市群的内外辐射带动是流域全境高质量发展的基础,城市结构的优化提升是推动高质量发展的重要途径,实现可持续发展还需要科技创新和产业结构转型升级。     

梁子湖流域水环境功能区划及水质现状分析

“水是生命之源,生产之本。”近几十年来,由于人类活动对自然界的影响越来越大,水环境的污染问题也越来越突出,其造成的危害和影响越来越受到人们的关注。水资源总量是有限的,因此合理的规划开发利用水资源显得尤为重要。本文针对梁子湖流域存在的水环境水质恶化的问题,依据其水环境功能区划,通过对水质现状的监测,利用透明度、DO、BOD、COD、NH3-N、TP六个指标作为梁子湖水质研究的主要水质指标,并对监测结果进行分析,依据其检测结果进行流域控制单元的划分,同时加强水质管理,从而达到优化梁子湖流域水环境区划功能的目的,并对做好水资源保护工作有着重要的现实指导意义。     

鄂尔多斯某区域石油开发生态环境变化分析

通过回顾鄂尔多斯盆地某地区石油开发以来区域生态环境变化,分析研究区目前的生态环境质量现状及石油开发等经济活动对区域生态环境的影响。利用GIS(地理信息系统)软件的最大值合成法(MVC)对研究区1989—2010年植被覆盖度遥感MODIS(中分辨率成像光谱仪)数据进行解译。研究结果表明:研究区石油开发以来,生态环境的变化特征能够反映出该地区社会经济发展客观规律以及随之带来的环境问题,对研究区制定环境保护与资源开发政策具有一定参考意义。     

Evaluation of Operational National Weather Service Gridded Flash Flood Guidance over the Arkansas Red River Basin

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NWS) flash flood warnings are issued by Weather Forecast Offices and are underpinned by information from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) system operated by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs). This study focuses on the quantitative evaluation and limitations of the FFG system using reported flash flood cases in 2010 and 2011. The flash flood reports were obtained from the NWS Storm Event database for the Arkansas‐Red Basin RFC (ABRFC). The current FFG system at the ABRFC provides gridded flash flood guidance (GFFG) system using the NWS Hydrology Laboratory‐Research Distributed Hydrologic Model to translate the upper zone soil moisture to estimates of Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. Comparisons of the GFFG and real‐time Multisensor Precipitation Estimator‐derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for the same duration and location were used to analyze the success of the system. Typically, the six‐hour duration was characterized by higher probability of detection values than the three‐hour duration, which highlights the difficulty of hydrologic process estimation for shorter time scales. The current system does not take into account physical characteristics such as land use, including irrigated agricultural farm and urban areas, hence, overly dry soil moisture estimates over these areas can lower the success rate of the GFFG product.     

Desertification and Sustainable Development of the Heihe River Basin in Arid Northwestern China

Abstract

The Heihe River Basin of northwestern China is one of several areas severely affected by desertification. This article outlines the status of desertification in this basin. There are mainly 5 types of desertification in the Heihe River Basin, namely soil and water erosion, sandy desertification, soil aridization, soil salinization and vegetation degradation. Among the 5 types of desertification, the main desertification type is sandy desertification with an area of 10 771.97 km²; Second type is soil salinization with an area of 10 591.82 km²; Next to the soil salinization is the type of soil and water erosion with an area of 5 747.68 km² and the other types of desertification in the Heihe River Basin are soil aridization with just area of 1 369.96 km² and vegetation degradation type with an area of 1 490.48 km² respectively. Both natural and man-made factors are responsible for the causes of desertification development, among which the latter is the main driving force for desertification in the basin.     

气象干旱诊断评估方法及其在长江中下游地区的应用

干旱是具有一定持续时间和影响范围双重特性的气候异常事件,为客观反映干旱事件的综合影响及演变特征,借鉴“时间-面积”函数的概念,基于综合气象干旱指数建立了气象干旱评估指标和模式,对干旱的时空特征进行了系统的量化表征和可视化表达,并以长江中下游地区为例进行了应用检验。结果表明提出的指标方法能够客观识别和反映出历史典型干旱事件及其强度,对干旱时空分布细节特征的诊断直观具体,对干旱过程起止时间、发展速度、烈度、强度的诊断准确合理。该方法操作简便且物理意义清晰,对省市级、流域及国家级干旱监测评估业务具有良好的应用价值。     

青海省沿黄12县自然灾害活动特征及承灾体脆弱性评价

根据1949～2000年青海省沿黄12县的地质、地震和区域气候资料,对青海省黄河干流水电梯级开发已建龙羊峡和李家峡水库蓄水前后自然灾害的活动特征进行了分析.在此基础上,依据层次性、代表性、易得性、客观性和可统计性等原则,建立了适于评价县域承灾体脆弱性的指标体系,并采用加权分级评分法对其进行了量化评估,以揭示区域未来成灾趋势.评价结果表明,湟中、湟源、民和、化隆、循化、尖扎、共和是洪涝、干旱、病虫害、地质和地震灾害的高发区,承灾体也非常脆弱.     

长江流域冬季农业主要作物的耕地竞争机制及案例研究

长江流域是世界最大的油菜籽生产带，增加油菜籽种植面积和产量是提高我国油料供给能力的重要方面。在该区域，油菜籽和小麦是最主要的冬季农作物，也是具备耕地竞争关系的2种主要作物。在对长江流域这两种作物的耕地竞争机制进行理论分析的基础上，系统阐述了耕地竞争力各影响因素之间的内在联系；根据实地调查的数据与结果，对油菜籽和冬小麦的耕地竞争关系进行深入分析。研究结果显示：油菜籽耕地竞争力的影响因素主要有单产、收购价格、机械化水平、劳动力价格及国家政策；稳定油菜籽收购价格是提高油菜籽耕地竞争力的关键；随着农村劳动力成本的提高，油菜籽生产的机械化水平成为影响种植效益的重要因素；国家补贴的影响作用不大。另外，结论也表明长江流域存在很大的油菜籽生产潜力。     

东江流域水资源价格调控研究

运用水资源价值模糊数学模型计算出流域四大区间水资源价格,并对价格调整后的供水风险和水资源优化配置进行了分析.根据计算结果认为,水价的调整可以作为水利工程措施的一种有益补充,通过建立水市场,利用水价这一杠杆,实现水权的有偿转让,结合工程措施实施流域内调水能有效的降低区间供水风险.     

Efficacy of a Voluntary Area to Be Avoided to Reduce Risk of Lethal Vessel Strikes to Endangered Whales

Abstract: Ocean‐going vessels pose a threat to large whales worldwide and are responsible for the majority of reported deaths diagnosed among endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). Various conservation policies have been implemented to reduce vessel‐strike mortality in this species. The International Maritime Organization adopted the Roseway Basin Area to be avoided on the Scotian Shelf as a voluntary conservation initiative to reduce the risk of lethal vessel strikes to right whales. We initiated the Vessel Avoidance & Conservation Area Transit Experiment to evaluate the efficacy of this initiative because the effectiveness of the avoidance scheme in reducing risk without the imposition of vessel‐speed restrictions depends entirely on vessel‐operator compliance. Using a network of automatic identification system receivers, we collected static, dynamic, and voyage‐related vessel data in near real time from the Roseway Basin region for 12 months before and 6 months after the implementation of the area to be avoided. Using pre‐ and post‐implementation vessel navigation and speed data, along with right whale sightings per unit effort data, all resolved at 3′N latitude by 3′W longitude, we estimated the post‐implementation change in risk of lethal vessel strikes. Estimates of vessel‐operator voluntary compliance ranged from 57% to 87% and stabilized at 71% within the first 5 months of implementation. Our estimates showed an 82% reduction in the risk of lethal vessel strikes to right whales due to vessel‐operator compliance. We conclude that the high level of compliance achieved with this voluntary conservation initiative occurred because the area to be avoided was adopted by the International Maritime Organization. Our results demonstrate that international shipping interests are able and willing to voluntarily alter course to protect endangered whales.