The landscape epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation

This study aimed at understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences outbreaks of contagious diseases in southern Africa. Landscape attributes influence patterns of movement and behaviour of animal hosts, virus spread and survival, as well as land use practices. A multi-agent simulation was developed to represent the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogens between human-livestock and wildlife interfaces at the fringe of large wildlife conservation areas. The model represents the three main elements associated with epidemics - populations, space, and time - to simulate direct contacts between wildlife and livestock. The dynamics of these populations emerge from interactions between agents and the landscape. The model was calibrated to represent the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease through direct contact at the border of the Kruger National Park in South Africa. In the region, African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) act as reservoirs of the virus and spread the infection to domestic cattle bordering the park. We tested the sensitivity of various factors influencing contact rate between buffaloes and cattle, and thus the risk of foot-and-mouth disease transmission. Results show that cattle-buffalo contacts mostly depend on the range of displacements of cattle and buffaloes, as influenced by the landscape configuration, and on the number of fence breakages multiplied by the time between breakage and repair. Contacts take place not only close to water-points but also in grazing areas, within an area up to 6 km from the fence.     

Resistance and re-organization of an ecosystem in response to biological invasion: Some hypotheses

Using a dynamic model of Lake Chozas developed by Marchi et al. (2011), we tested three hypotheses about recovery of the indigenous community and water quality after radical changes caused by introduction of an invasive allochthonous crayfish, Procambarus clarkii:

1.

Can the lake resist the pressure of an invasive species, like P. clarkii, by adaptation?

2.

Can the ecosystem recover when all the crayfish are removed and low phosphorus concentrations persist in inflow water?

3.

Does the simulated recovery of submerged vegetation occur at a total phosphorus concentration below 100 mg TP m⁻³, as estimated by Scheffer et al. (1993), Scheffer (1997), Jeppesen et al. (1998) and Zhang et al. (2003)?

We obtained the following answers:

1.

Lake Chozas can at least partly resist by adaptation. A combination of possible parameter changes could lead to a significant increase in eco-exergy.

2.

Removal of the phosphorus represented by crayfish (by harvesting) implies complete recovery of the lake and its eco-exergy, albeit not necessarily with the same organisms having the same properties.

3.

The expected hysteresis created by introduction and harvesting of crayfish is observed under the following conditions: phytoplankton dominance at total phosphorus ≥ about 200-250 mg TP m⁻³ and submerged vegetation returns at total phosphorus < 100 mg TP m⁻³.

     

北京建成区道路绿化空间结构和行道树健康状况

采用实地普查测量方法,定量研究了北京建成区188条道路行道树的树种结构、径级分布、立木层次和健康状况。结果表明,国槐（Sophora japonica）、毛白杨（Populus alba）、银杏（Ginkgo biloba）是建成区主要行道树种,使用量分别占研究区树木总株数的54．7％、13．7％和7．4％。建成区树木...     

太湖和巢湖夏季蓝藻水华期间产毒微囊藻和非产毒微囊藻种群丰度的空间分布

应用荧光定量PCR技术对蓝藻水华暴发期间太湖和巢湖水体中产毒微囊藻和总微囊藻种群丰度的空间分布进行了研究.分别以微囊藻毒素合成基因基因家族成员mcyD和小核糖体16S rDNA序列构建定量PCR标准曲线,研究产毒微囊藻和总微囊藻种群丰度.结果表明:太湖和巢湖微囊藻种群由产毒微囊藻和非产毒微囊藻组成;蓝藻水华暴发期间,微囊藻种群组成及其丰度分布具有明显的空间差异性:太湖产毒微囊藻种群丰度为9.89×104～4.51×106 copies mL-1,产毒微囊藻占总微囊藻种群的比例为20.5%～38.1%;巢湖产毒微囊藻种群丰度为4.12×104～5.44×106 copies mL-1,其占总微囊藻种群的比例为8.4%～96.6%.总的来说,富营养化严重的湖区总微囊藻和产毒微囊藻种群丰度较高,产毒微囊藻占总微囊藻种群的比例也较高.图7表3参29     

神木煤矿区土壤重金属污染特征研究

通过对神府煤田开采区3个煤矿区周围土壤Cu、Cd、Cr、Mn、Ni质量分数进行测定及分析,评价了煤田开采对周围土壤的污染程度。结果表明,长期的煤炭资源开发、运输等活动,已导致周围土壤受到重金属不同程度的累积性污染,土壤中Cd、Ni质量分数高于陕西省土壤背景值,且Cd污染程度较高,Ni污染程度较低,而Cu、Cr、Mn基本不受污染。3个煤矿表层土壤各重金属元素质量分数均表现出污染区大于对照区,但这种变化幅度存在一定差异;Cu、Cr、Mn 3种重金属元素虽没有超出背景值,但已表现出一定程度的累积;煤矿周围土壤重金属污染受到开采年限、土壤质地、风向等因素的影响。3个煤矿污染区土壤剖面样品中,5种重金属元素质量分数基本上随着土壤深度的增加呈现降低的趋势,且这种趋势具有波动性。     

井冈山森林碳储量与LAI和材积的相关性

建立林木生物量模型是估算森林生物量的重要方法之一,叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index,简称LAI）和材积与林木密切相关,是否可通过建立森林生物量与LAI或材积的相关模型来估算森林生物量,进而估算森林碳储量,值得探索。以井冈山自然保护区两种典型森林类型（常绿阔叶林和人工杉木林）为研究对象,分乔木层、植被层和总体（植被层＋土壤层）3部分分别计算碳密度,并对它们与叶面积指数LAI和材积之间的相关性进行分析。结果表明：常绿阔叶林总体碳密度为38．915kg／m^2,高于人工杉木林的27．460kg／m^2;两种森林类型乔木层和植被层碳密度与材积具有很好的相关性（R^2〉0．97）,在与LAI的相关性分析中,人工杉木林乔木层和植被层碳密度与LAI相关系数达到0．7以上,相关关系显著,而常绿阔叶林各层碳密度与LAI的相关性不明显;在森林总体碳密度与LAI和材积的相关性分析中发现,只有常绿阔叶林总体碳密度与材积的R^2为0．7116,达到显著水平,其它相关性水平均不显著。因此,利用材积与生物量和碳储量的相关关系来推算井冈山森林生物量和碳储量的方法是可行的,通过叶面积指数来推算森林生物量和碳储量的方法还有待进一步研究探讨。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区典型植物耐旱生理及抗旱性评价

通过实地采样获取黄土高原丘陵区柠条、侧柏、油松、山杏和山毛桃5种常见植物类型的4个耐旱指标(丙二醛含量、叶绿素含量、谷胱甘肽含量、束缚水/自由水含量比值)和2个抗旱指标(脯氨酸含量、可溶性糖含量)数据,采用模糊数学隶属函数法和灰色关联分析法评价不同植物的抗旱能力和不同指标的指示效果.结果表明,不同树种的上述6个生理指标对干旱条件的响应存在显著差异,但基于单个指标获得的树种抗旱能力排序结果不完全一致,说明单个指标无法全面描述树种的抗旱能力,对5个树种抗旱能力大小的综合评价结果为柠条＞侧柏＞油松＞山杏＞山毛桃.耐旱指标叶绿素含量、束缚水/自由水含量比值、谷胱甘肽含量和抗旱指标脯氨酸含量与抗旱隶属度的关联度值均＞0.60,可用以指示植物的抗旱能力,其中,以脯氨酸含量的指示效果最好.     

定量风险评价技术在管道城市穿越段的应用

介绍了管道高后果区定量风险评价的方法和风险可接收标准.将定量风险评价技术在我国某长输原油管道城市穿越段的应用表明,定量风险评价方法适用于人口密集的管道高后果区,能对管道高后果区的风险管理、决策提供重要的参考.     

阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫的分布与污染状况

对阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的含量进行了调查,并用单指标标准指数法对污染水平进行了评价.结果表明,阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫含量的平均值依次为1 041 mg/kg、1 075 mg/kg、2 743 mg/kg.生活、生产污水、工业废气,以及机动船只、网箱养鱼等活动是阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的主要来源.磷、氟、...     

柴窝堡湖营养状态和限制因子分析及富营养化防治对策

应用柴窝堡湖2005—2009年的监测数据,对其水质进行评价,并用综合营养状态指数法分析了湖库总体富营养化水平,利用水质N／P比值和叶绿素a的相关分析,探讨了湖库富营养化的限制因子,并对改善水质提出了几点建议。