Exploring pedestrian injury severities at pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an annual upward trend: A spatiotemporal analysis with latent class random parameter approach

Introduction: With the increasing trend of pedestrian deaths among all traffic fatalities in the past decade, there is an urgent need for identifying and investigating hotspots of pedestrian-vehicle crashes with an upward trend. Method: To identify pedestrian-vehicle crash locations with aggregated spatial pattern and upward temporal pattern (i.e., hotspots with an upward trend), this paper first uses the average nearest neighbor and the spatial autocorrelation tests to determine the grid distance and the neighborhood distance for hotspots, respectively. Then, the spatiotemporal analyses with the Getis-Ord Gi* index and the Mann-Kendall trend test are utilized to identify the pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an annual upward trend in North Carolina from 2007 to 2018. Considering the unobserved heterogeneity of the crash data, a latent class model with random parameters within class is proposed to identify specific contributing factors for each class and explore the heterogeneity within classes. Significant factors of the pedestrian, vehicle, crash type, locality, roadway, environment, time, and traffic control characteristics are detected and analyzed based on the marginal effects. Results: The heterogeneous results between classes and the random parameter variables detected within classes further indicate the superiority of latent class random parameter model. Practical Applications: This paper provides a framework for researchers and engineers to identify crash hotspots considering spatiotemporal patterns and contribution factors to crashes considering unobserved heterogeneity. Also, the result provides specific guidance to developing countermeasures for mitigating pedestrian-injury at pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an upward trend.     

Testing Accuracy of Finite Element and Random Walk Schemes in Prediction of Pollutant Dispersion in Coastal Waters

Distribution of pollutants in coastal waters is usually represented by depth averaged twodimensional convection-dispersion equation. Under very specific conditions this equation can be solved analytically. Although such a solution is restricted to simplified situations it provides a very useful case for testing the performance of various numerical solution techniques currently available for the simulation of convective-dispersion of pollutants in natural water systems. In this paper the analytical solution of the convective dispersion equation is used as a benchmark against which the accuracy of other techniques are assessed. These assessments are based on quantitative comparisons between the results of the solution of two-dimensional convection-dispersion equation by the deterministic finite element and stochastic random walk methods. Both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks are employed to obtain the finite element solution of the convection-dispersion problem. It has been shown that the Lagrange–Galerkin finite element scheme yields the most accurate results for the case under study. However, computational costs of the Lagrange–Galerkin method can be relatively high and under certain conditions it may be reasonable to use a less accurate but cost effective random walk scheme to make water quality management decisions.     

环境监测数据线性回归分析中回归模型的比较

应用偏重于优化因变量拟合效果的最小二乘回归分析法对环境监测随机数据样本进行数值评估原则上是不可取的。文章以降水无机阴阳离子电荷平衡分析为例,对最小二乘法、压轴回归法和最小正交平方和法的回归分析结果进行了比较。结果表明,压轴回归分析法适合于处理随机数据样本,得到的回归系数b值较大,变量之间的数值变化关系较为密切。     

Diameter growth models for mixed-species stands of Coastal British Columbia including thinning and fertilization effects

In this study, diameter growth models for three species growing in mixed-stands of Coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada, under a variety of silvicultural treatments were developed. The three species were: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn). A Box and Lucas model (1959) was initially fitted to the diameter growth series for each tree, as this model is very flexible and was based on processes reflective of the metabolic processes governing tree growth. Next, a random coefficients modelling approach (i.e., parameter prediction approach) was used to modify the estimated parameters for each species using functions of tree size and stage of development, site productivity, and inter-tree competition variables, while accounting for temporal correlation within trees. Impacts of fertilization on diameter growth were estimated by including the time since fertilization as an additional variable. Since state variables that are changed as a result of thinning were already in the model, accurate results post-thinning were obtained with no changes to the model. For the combined effects of thinning and fertilization, a two-step additive approach was used, where the state variables were changed following thinning and the diameter increment was modified for fertilization using the time since fertilization variable. Results indicated that multiple treatments sustain a change in growth for a longer time period following treatment than thinning or fertilization alone.     

Assessing the Restoration Success of River Widenings: A Landscape Approach

During the last 200 years, many rivers in industrialized countries have been modified by canalization. In the last two decades, the philosophy of river management has changed considerably, and restoration of ecological integrity has become an important management goal. One appealing restoration approach is to create “river widenings” that permit braiding within a limited area. This study presents a new and efficient framework for rapidly assessing such widening projects and offers a novel method to comparing restored sites with near-natural stretches (stencil technique). The proposed framework evaluates spatial patterns of riparian habitat types using landscape metrics as indicators. Three case studies from river restoration (river widening) in Switzerland are presented for demonstration purposes.The method compares restored sites with prerestoration conditions and near-natural conditions, which are assumed to represent the worst and best case states of a river system. To take into account the limited spatial extent of the restored sites, the so-called “stencil technique” was developed, where the landscape metrics of the near-natural reference sites are calculated for both the entire study area and smaller sections (clips). The clips are created by using a stencil that has the exact shape and size of the restored area (random window-sampling technique). Subsequently, the calculated metrics for the restored sites are compared to the range of values calculated for the near-natural data subset. Our studies show that the proposed method is easy to apply andprovides a valid way to assess the restoration success of river widenings. We found that river widenings offer real opportunities for establishing riparian habitats. However, they promote mainly pioneer successional stages and the habitat mosaic of the restored section is more complex than at the near-natural reference sites.     

Severity of passenger injuries on public buses: A comparative analysis of collision injuries and non-collision injuries

Introduction: Although public buses have been demonstrated as a relatively safe mode of transport, the number of injuries to public bus passengers is far from negligible. Existing studies of public bus safety have focused primarily on injuries caused by collisions. Surprisingly, limited effort has been devoted to identifying factors that increase the severity of passenger injuries in non-collision incidents. Method: Our study therefore investigated the injury risk of public bus passengers involved in collision incidents and non-collision incidents comparatively, based on a police-reported dataset of 17,383 passengers injured on franchised public buses over a 10-year period in Hong Kong. A random parameters logistic model was established to estimate the likelihood of fatal and severe injuries to passengers as a function of various factors. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistences in the effects of risk factors between models of non-collision injuries and collision injuries. The severity of passenger injuries tended to increase significantly when non-collision incidents occurred due to excessive speed of bus drivers, on double-decker buses, in less urbanized areas, in winter, in heavy rains, during daytime, and at night without street lighting. Elderly female passengers were also found more likely to be fatally or severely injured in non-collision incidents if they lost their balance while boarding, alighting from, or standing on a bus. In comparison, the following factors were associated with a greater likelihood of fatal or severe injuries in collision incidents: elderly female passengers, standing passengers who lost balance, buses out of driver control, double-decker buses, collisions with vehicles or objects, and less urbanized areas. Practical Applications: Based on our comparative analysis, more targeted countermeasures, namely “4E” (engineering, enforcement, emergency, and education) and “3A” (awareness, appreciation, and assistance), were recommended to mitigate collision injuries and non-collision injuries to public bus passengers, respectively.     

区域能源效率测算及影响分析——基于三阶段DEA方法

文章运用三阶段DEA方法,测算了2010～2017年间全国30个省、市能源效率,并将剔除环境要素和随机扰动影响的效率值与传统DEA分析结果进行比较.结果显示,剔除环境要素和随机扰动之前,我国绝大多数省规模效率高于纯技术效率,导致规模效率被高估,存在投入不足的情况;通过三阶段DEA结果,中国地区间规模报酬都处于递增趋势,...     

国外酸雨试验研究动态

酸雨对环境污染和材料的侵蚀性日趋严重,近年国外对其影响开展一系列试验研究。本文介绍其试验研究的一些情况。     

基于随机森林算法的滁州市空气质量预报研究

利用2017—2019年滁州市6种空气污染物质量浓度和AQI资料、气象要素及ECMWF数值预报作为输入参数,构建基于随机森林算法的污染物质量浓度和AQI预报模型,其中AQI预报按季节划分为4个模型。结果表明：6种污染物中O3的预报效果最好,相关系数为0.84,PM2.5、PM10和NO2相关系数分别为0.76、0.72和0.72,SO2和CO预报效果略差;基于分季节模型AQI的24 h预报结果TS评分为0.77,空报率（FAR）和漏报率（PO）分别为15%和12%,相较于非季节模型预报效果更好;春季和秋季的TS评分分别为0.88和0.86,相较于冬季和夏季预报效果更好。     

现代控制理论在河流水质系统状态估计中的应用

本文基于导出的河流水质系统随机状态空间模型，提出了以能够即时测定的ＤＯ浓度实时估计不易测定的ＢＯＤ浓度的塔穆勒滤波方法。通过仿真实例，证明了该滤波方法能在较大范围内适用于河流水质系统的状态估计，用ＤＯ估计ＢＯＤ是可行的。