Impacts of international trade on carbon flows of forest industry in Finland

Finland is a forested country with a large export oriented forest industry. In addition to domestic forest extraction, roundwood is imported, thus displacing the environmental impacts of harvests. In this paper, we analyse the international carbon flows of forest industries in Finland from a consumption-based perspective. Quantitative analyses are available on trade embedded emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion, and here we address in a similar way the impact of trade on the carbon budget of the forest products sector in Finland. Carbon flows through the forest industry system increased substantially between 1991 and 2005. We show that the annual carbon balance related to forests and forest industry system in Finland functioned as a sink in 1991, whereas in 2005 the system was a sink on a national level, but not on a global level. Through calculating the carbon content in traded forest industry products and emissions embodied in forest industry activities, we further show that the direct impacts of the forest industry in Finland are only a minor fraction of the total CO₂ emissions related to Finnish production. Nearly all of the emissions were caused due to production of exports. Yet, direct carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial production are reported to Finland in the production based inventories.     

Enhancing feasibility: Incorporating a socio-ecological systems framework into restoration planning

Forest restoration is the counterforce to deforestation. In many parts of the world it mitigates forest loss and degradation, but success rates vary. Socio-political variables are important predictors of effectiveness of restoration activities, indicating that restoration strategies need to be locally adapted. Yet, contextual assessments of the biophysical, social and political characteristics of forest restoration are rare. Here, we integrate a social-ecological systems framework with systematic decision-making to inform forest restoration planning. We illustrate this approach through a prioritization analysis in a community-based forest restoration context in Paser District, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. We compare the solutions of our integrated framework with those identified on the basis of biophysical criteria alone. We discover that incorporating a socio-political context alters the selection of priority areas. While the social feasibility and political permissibility can be enhanced, ecological benefits are likely to be reduced and/or opportunity costs of alternative land uses are to be increased. Our conceptual framework allows the appraisal of potential trade-offs between social and ecological outcomes of alternative options, and has the potential to evaluate the efficiency of existing policies. Empirical testing in a range of contexts is required to ensure broad applicability and transferability of our conceptual framework.     

Landscape fires as social disasters: An overview of ‘the bushfire problem’

The ‘landscape’, ‘bushfire’ or ‘forest-fire’ problem is exemplified by the destruction of homes and human lives by landscape fires raging out of control. The ‘problem’ involves a series of landscapes (e.g. wildland and suburb), a series of systems (e.g. biophysical system and environmental-effects system), and a series of time phases (e.g. planning phase). It is a multi-stakeholder, multi-variable, multi-scale problem. Land uses, like ‘farmland’, imply a set of specific assets and, therefore, particular perceptions of losses. In all land-use designations, at any one point, fire-proneness may be seen as a function of exposure to ignition sources (embers, burning brands or flame radiation and flame contact) and the ease of ignition. The landscape-fire problem has multiple partial ‘solutions’, not just one overall solution, and these involve social governance, land management (public and private), suppression capacity and personal preparedness. The problem needs to be addressed at multiple temporal and spatial scales in an integrated fashion for the outcome to be of maximal benefit. There will always be a residual risk of severe fire occurrence. Minimisation of residual risk requires effective land management, recurrent funding and the perpetual vigilance of all parties.     

Using MCA tools for evaluating community-managed forests from a green economy perspective: lessons from Nepal

ABSTRACT

Nepal is in the process of formulating its forest policies at the provincial level . Various community-managed forests have been designed in the past by the Nepal government to decentralize the forest for its sustainable management practice. This study facilitates the process of identifying appropriate forest management options in two of the provinces, namely Provinces Three and Gandaki. Four forest management options – passive, active, scientific and multiple – were identified following the existing management practices. For the evaluation of the overall performance of the options, a framework with three criteria, 10 indicators and 28 verifiers were designed. The framework followed the green economy perspective considering the improvement of the forest conditions, economic and social well-being, and low carbon emission. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to prioritize the best management option and analyse trade-offs to guide future decision-making and reduce the risk of unwanted consequences. Our results show that the elicitation of preferences for the evaluation criteria varied by stakeholder groups. Their preference was largely guided by improving the forest resource condition and economic well-being. Foresters prefer scientific and active forest management, policymakers prefer multiple-use forest management and scientific management, whereas community forest user groups prefer active forest management. We argue that a scientific management approach may contribute better to economic aspects, although it may often compromise the other aspects. The multiple forest management option seems to be the best for green economy considering ecological, economic and social consequences.     

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called _R0$R_0$) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) _R0$R_0$ cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations.     

Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

Application of a three-dimensional model for assessing effects of small clear-cuttings on radiation and soil temperature

A three-dimensional model Mixfor-3D of soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) was developed and applied to estimate possible effects of tree clear-cutting on radiation and soil temperature regimes of a forest ecosystem. The Mixfor-3D model consists of several closely coupled 3D sub-models describing: forest stand structure; radiative transfer in a forest canopy; turbulent transfer of sensible heat, H₂O and CO₂ between ground surface and the atmospheric surface layer; evapotranspiration of ground surface vegetation and soil; heat and moisture transfer in soil. The model operates with the horizontal grid resolution, 2 m × 2 m; vertical resolution, 1 m and primary time step, 1 h.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.     

Potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating forest succession models

Forest gap models have been applied widely to examine forest development under natural conditions and to investigate the effect of climate change on forest succession. Due to the complexity and parameter requirements of such models a rigorous evaluation is required to build confidence in the simulation results. However, appropriate data for model assessment are scarce at the large spatial and temporal scales of successional dynamics. In this study, we explore a data source for the evaluation of forest gap models that has been used only little in the past, i.e., large-scale National Forest Inventory data. The key objectives of this study were (a) to examine the potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating the performance of forest gap models and (b) to test two particular models as case studies to derive recommendations for their future improvement.     

What enables coexistence in plant communities? Weak versus strong species traits and the role of local processes

Explaining the coexistence of species that basically depend on the same resources has been a brainteaser for generations of ecologists. Different mechanisms have been proposed to facilitate coexistence in plant communities, where space is an important resource. Using a stochastic cellular automaton simulation model we analyze - separately and in combination - the influence of different species traits and processes which alter local competition on the coexistence of plant species over a fixed time horizon. We show that different species traits operate on different time scales in competition. We therefore suggest the concept of weak versus strong traits according to short- or long-term exclusion of species differing in these traits. As a consequence, highly non-linear trade-offs between weak and strong traits can result in communities. Furthermore, we found that trade-offs based on physiological species traits such as plant lifetime, dispersal range and plant growth, did not support broad and long-term coexistence—further processes such as density-dependent mortality and light-dependent colonization were necessary. This suggests that coexistence in plant communities requires (stabilizing) local processes to support the (equalizing) trade-offs in species traits.