Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

林火管理经济学的研究与探讨——单一可变防火要素的最佳投入

用经济学的观点分析了其它防火要素的投入量不变,仅改变某种可变防火要素的投入时,减灾效益Ｅ、边际减灾效益ＥＭ、平均减灾效益Ｅ／Ｆｉ与单一可变防火要素Ｆｉ的关系。提出了如何采用连际分析的方法确定单一防火要素的最佳投入问题。     

基于Logistic回归的林缘计划烧除气象条件判别分析

森林火灾是一种破坏性极强的灾害,它与农事活动以及气象条件密切相关,加强其预防与控制具有十分重要的作用和意义。根据2014年~2015年闽东屏南县进行的60次林缘计划烧除试验观测的主要气象要素数据(天晴日数、温度、湿度、风速),建立基于Logistic二元回归的林缘烧除气象条件判别模型进行检验和分析。结果表明,模型判别计划烧除成功与否的预报准确率高(91.7%),主要气象要素对林缘计划烧除成功与否发挥重要作用,其中连续晴天日数为最大影响因子,其次为风速。模型通过检验和验证结果显著,具有预报服务应用价值。     

Investigating factors affecting severity of large truck-involved crashes: Comparison of the SVM and random parameter logit model

Introduction: Reducing the severity of crashes is a top priority for safety researchers due to its impact on saving human lives. Because of safety concerns posed by large trucks and the high rate of fatal large truck-involved crashes, an exploration into large truck-involved crashes could help determine factors that are influential in crash severity. The current study focuses on large truck-involved crashes to predict influencing factors on crash injury severity. Method: Two techniques have been utilized: Random Parameter Binary Logit (RPBL) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Models have been developed to estimate: (1) multivehicle (MV) truck-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are at fault, (2) MV track-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are not at fault and (3) and single-vehicle (SV) large truck crashes. Results: Fatigue and deviation to the left were found as the most important contributing factors that lead to fatal crashes when the large truck-driver is at fault. Outcomes show that there are differences among significant factors between RPBL and SVM. For instance, unsafe lane-changing was significant in all three categories in RPBL, but only SV large truck crashes in SVM. Conclusions: The outcomes showed the importance of the complementary approaches to incorporate both parametric RPBL and non-parametric SVM to identify the main contributing factors affecting the severity of large truck-involved crashes. Also, the results highlighted the importance of categorization based on the at-fault party. Practical Applications: Unrealistic schedules and expectations of trucking companies can cause excessive stress for the large truck drivers, which could leads to further neglect of their fatigue. Enacting and enforcing comprehensive regulations regarding large truck drivers’ working schedules and direct and constant surveillance by authorities would significantly decrease large truck-involved crashes.     

我国的自然遗迹保护与自然遗迹类保护区的建设

我国自然遗迹类保护区数量少,代表性参差不齐,不适应丰富多样的自然遗迹保护的要求。依靠自然遗迹类保护区、非自然遗迹类保护区、风景名胜区和森林公园等几种形式,使200多处有代表性的自然遗迹得到保护,但几者之间有重迭交叉,总的覆盖面也不完全。应加强全国自然遗迹保护的统一规划与协调,既探索综合保护的路子,也要补建一批自然遗迹类保护区,完善多元化保护的格局。      

Establishing a Regional Monitoring Strategy: The Pacific Northwest Forest Plan

adaptive monitoring design. Adaptive monitoring design is an iterative process that refines the specifications for monitoring over time as a result of experience in implementing a monitoring program, assessing results, and interacting with users. An adaptive design therefore facilitates ecosystem management. We also discuss lessons of temporal and spatial scales raised by the consideration of a design for ecosystem management. Three additional issues—integration of information from different sources, institutional infrastructure, and the roles of individuals working in an interagency setting—are also identified, but not developed in detail.     

激波与森林作用的实验研究

利用激波与森林的作用,有可能成为森林灭火中的一项新技术,本文报告了激波与林带作用的实验模拟方法,实验技术与装备,测试和显示手段等基本技术环节。激波在林地,林带中的传播和衰减,以及其它物理现象由纹影方法作了显示。激波诱导的压力场也作了测量。研究表明,以激波管为基础的模拟技术是成功的,实验结果对于进一步认识激波与林冠火阵面的相互作用有很好的先导意义。     

The political ecology of Yukon forestry: managing the forest as if people mattered

Over the past several decades a growing interest has emerged in the relationship between forest dependent communities and their use of non-timber forest resources (NTFR—i.e. berries, roots, barks). Motivated in large part by international concerns over the loss of biological and cultural diversity, efforts are now being made to conserve the world's remaining forests by repositioning NTFR to the forefront of the forest management process. Together with the Little Salmon Carmacks First Nation, we have undertaken an assessment that: 1) addresses the role of NTFR in fulfilling basic human necessities and well-being of community members, and 2) identifies the perceptual differences that exist among First Nation and non-First Nation community members regarding the security and future availability of forest resources. Based on our findings, we argue that if the true value of the forest is to be understood, and thus sustained, those involved in management must consider the full array of products and services the forest provides. Thus the conventional and over-simplified view that the forest is to provide primarily for commercial timber must be challenged in light of the multiplicity of values community members gain from forest use.     

Modis reflectance and active fire data for burn mapping and assessment at regional level

This paper presents an algorithm for rapid and accurate burn mapping that is applied here to the forest fires occurred in Galicia (northwest Spain) in August 2006, when nearly 930 km² were almost entirely burned over the course of eight days. The algorithm synergistically combines remotely-sensed reflectance and active fire data as measured by the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor on board Terra and Aqua NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) satellites. Burned area data collected from this work was compared to official fires statistics from the Spanish Ministry of Environment and to perimeters that were derived using a high spatial resolution satellite image. In a later step, burn patches area analyzed using information from the National Forest Map (1:50,000) and some Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools.     

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 1: Model structure and general behaviour

This article describes a new forest management module (FMM) that explicitly simulates forest stand growth and management within a process-based global vegetation model (GVM) called ORCHIDEE. The net primary productivity simulated by ORCHIDEE is used as an input to the FMM. The FMM then calculates stand and management characteristics such as stand density, tree size distribution, tree growth, the timing and intensity of thinnings and clear-cuts, wood extraction and litter generated after thinning. Some of these variables are then fed back to ORCHIDEE. These computations are made possible with a distribution-based modelling of individual tree size. The model derives natural mortality from the relative density index (rdi), a competition index based on tree size and stand density. Based on the common forestry management principle of avoiding natural mortality, a set of rules is defined to calculate the recurrent intensity and frequency of forestry operations during the stand lifetime. The new-coupled model is called ORCHIDEE-FM (forest management).The general behaviour of ORCHIDEE-FM is analysed for a broadleaf forest in north-eastern France. Flux simulation throughout a forest rotation compare well with the literature values, both in absolute values and dynamics.Results from ORCHIDEE-FM highlight the impact of forest management on ecosystem C-cycling, both in terms of carbon fluxes and stocks. In particular, the average net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 225 gC m⁻² year⁻¹ is close to the biome average of 311 gC m⁻² year⁻¹. The NEP of the “unmanaged” case is 40% lower, leading us to conclude that management explains 40% of the cumulated carbon sink over 150 years. A sensitivity analysis reveals 4 major avenues for improvement: a better determination of initial conditions, an improved allocation scheme to explain age-related decline in productivity, and an increased specificity of both the self-thinning curve and the biomass-diameter allometry.