常熟市持续农业和农村发展研究

根据联合国粮农组织（ＦＡＯ）提出的３个战略目标，本文阐述了常熟市农业和农村可持续发展的作法和体会，以及克服制约当地持续农业和农村发展的主导因素所采取的措施和取得的成效。     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

THE ARMA MODELS APPLIED TO THE FLOW OF KARSTIC SPRINGS1

ABSTRACT: Autoregressive moving average (ABMA) models have been applied to study the flow series of the karstic springs of La Villa, Fuente Mayor (Spain), and Aliou (France). The theoretical meaning of the parameters involved in the model upon applying it to a simplified scheme of the emptying of a karstic aquifer is first analyzed. The types of transformations necessary to apply these models to the flow series that lack normality and have strong periodic components are also indicated, as are the advantages of this type of model and the physical significance of the parameters obtained, with respect to the standpoint of hydraulics, ranging from rather homogeneous aquifers (La Villa) to extremely karstic (Aliou), including aquifers with intermediate characteristics (Fuente Mayor).     

北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论

通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析，结合１４Ｃ、古地磁等，对北京房山东甘池１５０００ａ以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究，特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在１４１００～１４０００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件，在１００００ａＢ．Ｐ．左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件，在大约５７７０ａＢ．Ｐ．和４５６０ａＢ．Ｐ．左右及２８５０～２６５０ａＢ．Ｐ．出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。     

Accidents and risk control

A framework for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education is presented. An accident model was developed built on the concept “uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE)”, where essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy. A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g. an explosion, a release of heavy gases. A domain model has been developed for representing emergencies occurring in society. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements, and the domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. Ten specific domains have been investigated including process plant, energy production and distribution, natural disasters and different sorts of transport. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain.     

事故树定量分析与安全指标的数学模型的建立

阐述了在该课题研究过程中，提出的一些新概念、新定义和新方法     

中国可持续发展与国家安全文化战略的新对策

“可持续发展”战略的实质是社会、经济发展与资源、环境相协调的一种发展模式。值得注意，这一人类社会发展模式中跨世纪重大转变的策略，尚未引起安全与减灾科技界的普遍关注，不仅在安全减灾战略研究中很少涉及，严重的是它阻碍了安全减灾诸领域跨世纪及决策课题研究的深度，造成与国际接轨进程缓慢。为此，立足可持续发展思路，并以全新视角、系统地讨论适宜安全减灾文化战略的总体对策，可望能为中国二十一世纪安全保障及科技发展提供科学指南     

城市可持续发展政策的取向与反思

本文对城市可持续发展进行了概述，从物理环境、经济环境和社会环境的相互作用的角度分析了城市可持续发展的政策取向，对当今的可持续发展的政策进行反思，提出了建立环境公平促进可持续发展的政策思路。     

On the thermal rupture of 1.9 m propane pressure vessels with defects in their thermal protection system

This paper describes the results from a series of fire tests that were carried out to measure the effect of defects in thermal protection systems on fire engulfed propane pressure vessels.

In North America thermal protection is used to protect dangerous goods rail tank-cars from accidental fire impingement. They are designed so that a tank-car will not rupture for 100 min in a defined engulfing fire, or 30 min in a defined torching fire. One common system includes a 13 mm blanket of high-temperature ceramic fibre thermal insulation covered with a 3 mm steel jacket. Recent inspections have shown that some tanks have significant defects in these thermal protection systems. This work was done to establish what levels of defect are acceptable from a safety standpoint.

The tests were conducted using 1890 l (500 US gallon) ASME code propane pressure vessels (commonly called tanks in the propane industry). The defects tested covered 8% and 15% of the tank surface. The tanks were 25% engulfed in a fire that simulated a hydrocarbon pool fire with an effective blackbody temperature of 870 °C.

The fire testing showed that even relatively small defects can result in tank rupture if the defect area is engulfed in a severe fire, and the defect area is not wetted by liquid from the inside. A wall failure prediction technique based on uniaxial high-temperature stress rupture test data has been developed and agrees well with the observed failure times.     

Current status and research on E-waste issues in Asia

Rapid economic growth in Asia and the increasing transboundary movement of secondary resources will increasingly require both 3R endeavors (reduce, reuse, recycle) in each country and appropriate control of international material cycles. Recently, managing electrical and electronic waste (E-waste) has become an important target for domestic and international material cycles from the viewpoints of environmental preservation and resource utilization efficiency. To understand the current status of E-waste issues in the context of international material cycles and to discuss the future tasks related to achieving 3R in the region, we organized the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) E-waste Workshop in December 2004. This article reviews past studies on E-waste and briefly describes the topics presented and discussions held at the workshop. The topics at the workshop included E-waste generation, recycling systems, international trade, and environmental impacts. In addition, we discussed various issues such as terminology, current environmental concerns, and possible solutions. Transboundary shipments of E-waste should be conducted taking into consideration the concept of sustainable development. The direction of future research and possible collaborations are also discussed.