Threatened Species and the Potential Loss of Phylogenetic Diversity: Conservation Scenarios Based on Estimated Extinction Probabilities and Phylogenetic Risk Analysis

Abstract: New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst‐case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single‐species assessment that is well‐integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.     

法国环境影响报告书编制与审查

介绍了法国环境影响评价的发展过程，通过实例着重介绍和分析法国环境影响报告书的主要内容和要求，最后就报告书的审查进行介绍和评述．法国的环境影响评价有其自身的特点，报告书内容要求广泛全面，要编制非技术性的简写本、重视景观影响评价、评价全面和要进行公众调查是其中主要特点．     

江苏昆山市人口,资源,环境与可持续发展的战略思考

本文从区域可持续发展的角度,着重分析了搞土地批租给经济建设、农业生产和环境保护带来的利弊,指出土地批租具有经济发展上的进取性,资源利用上的合理性,环境治理上的主动性和社会发展的全面性,关键是要因势利导,加强管理,才能达到可持续发展的根本目的。     

基于风险管理的区域（流域）地下水污染预警方法研究

地下水是我国重要的水资源,当前我国面临的地下水污染防治形势较为严峻.开展地下水污染风险评价及预警是预防地下水污染的有效措施,目前国内外有关地下水污染预警方面研究尚处于探索阶段,未形成一套完善的、可供借鉴的技术方法.本研究在分析不同尺度地区地下水污染预警工作需求的基础上,筛选出区域(流域)尺度地下水污染预警指标,包括地质介质防护性能、污染源特征、地下水动态及地下水价值因素四项指标,并利用指标叠置法建立了地下水污染预警模型.以包头平原区为例,开展了地下水污染预警研究,利用建立的模型划分了不同等级的地下水污染预警分区,研究成果可为当地地下水资源管理部门提供科技支撑.     

全国机动车污染物排放量——《2013年中国机动车污染防治年报》（第Ⅱ部分）

环境保护部日前发布（（2013年中国机动车污染防治年报》,公布了2012年全国机动车污染排放状况。本期“研究成果展示”专栏以六篇形式连载。本文刊载2012年全国机动车污染物排放量现状及其变化趋势的内容,以飨读者。该年报指出,2012年,全国机动车排放污染物4612．1万吨,比2011年增加0．1％,其中氮氧化物（NOx）640．0万吨,碳氢化合物（HC）438．2万吨,一氧化碳（CO）3471．7万吨,颗粒物（PM）62．2万吨。汽车是污染物总量的主要贡献者,其排放的NOx和PM超过90％,HC和CO超过70％。按车型分类,全国货车排放的NOx和PM明显高于客车,其中重型货车是主要贡献者;而客车CO和HC排放量则明显高于货车。按燃料分类,全国柴油车排放的NOx接近汽车排放总量的70％,PM超过90％;而汽油车CO和HC排放量则较高,超过排放总量的70％。按排放标准分类,占汽车保有量7．8％的国I前标准汽车,其排放的四种主要污染物占排放总量的35．0％以上：而占保有量61．6％的国Ⅲ及以上标准汽车,其排放量还不到排放总量的30．0％。按环保标志分类,仅占汽车保有量13．4％的“黄标车”却排放了58．2％的NOx、56．8％的Hc、52．5％的CO和81．9％的PM。2012年,全国机动车保有量比2011年增长了7．8％,但四项污染物排放总量与2011年基本持平,这与实施更严格的机动车排放标准、加快淘汰高排放的“黄标车”、提升车用燃料品质等措施有关。     

《国家危险废物名录》在应用管理中存在问题分析

本文介绍了我国危险废物名录目前的现状,分析了危险废物名录在应用管理过程中存在的问题,对名录修订及危险废物的监管提出了建议.针对我国危险废物名录在应用管理过程中存在的问题,本文建议：一是建立科学规范的鉴别浓度标准体系,完善危险废物管理豁免制度,扩大豁免范围;二是加强危险废物鉴定机构建设,优化产业空间布局;三是加强立法,明确责任;四是明确危险废物分类优先原则;五是坚持动态修订的原则,及时修订《名录》.     

南水北调丹江口水库原水有机物分子组成规律及其强化混凝处理的效能对比

以取自南水北调中线工程的丹江口水库原水作为研究对象,考察了丹江口水库原水中有机物的分子量大小和亲疏水性分子组成规律,并确定了其所适用的强化混凝工艺条件.分离试验表明,丹江口原水中有机物主要以小分子量形式存在.其中,1 000组分的溶解性有机碳(DOC)和UV254所占比例最大,分别为39.98%和39.10%,且此区间还具有最高的三卤甲烷生成潜能(THMFP)和含氮消毒副产物生成潜能(N-DBPFP).亲疏水性方面,原水中弱疏水性组分含量最高,疏水性有机物的比例用DOC表征时超过80%.强疏水性组分含量最低但是强疏水性组分的THMFP最大,占总量的57.31%,而各组分的NDBPFP则相差不大.混凝试验表明,当采用聚合硫酸铁(PFS,4 mg·L-1)和聚丙烯酰胺(PAM,0.4 mg·L-1)处理丹江口原水时,强化混凝效果最好,可实现较为有效的去除浊度(76.33%)、DOC(25.57%)、UV254(37.78%)及THMFP(23.16%).本研究成果可为南水北调河南受水区既有水厂升级改造与工艺的优化运行提供有效的理论和技术支持.     

基于长时间序列的北京PM2.5浓度日变化及气象条件影响分析

基于2005~2014年北京宝联(城区)和上甸子大气成分本底站(郊区)监测结果得到了PM_(2.5)质量浓度日变化特征,并且讨论了气象条件的影响.结果表明,北京城区PM_(2.5)质量浓度10年平均值的日变化呈双峰分布,对应早晚出行高峰.但是,该特征在2007年以后才比较明显.月际(季节)变化表现为单峰与双峰之间、日最大值在早高峰与晚高峰之间的转换.一年中早峰值浓度在5~8月最高,与地面风速小、相对湿度以及水汽压(空气绝对含水量)较高有关,该季节晚高峰期间浓度变化相对较小主要受混合层较厚、地面风速大、降雨天气发生频繁的影响.11~12月和1~2月的16:00以后浓度明显升高,混合层顶高度在14:00~17:00大幅度下降是重要的影响因素.此外,严重和重度污染日09:00以后污染加重,与年平均值和中度污染日不同.边界层偏南风对来自周边地区高架源的污染物输送是其重要的影响机制.PM_(2.5)质量浓度日变化幅度随污染加重而增大.日最大风速和相对湿度日变化对浓度日变化幅度有影响,而且午后地面出现4~6 m·s-1的偏南风也会加大日变化幅度.北京郊区PM_(2.5)质量浓度多年平均值日变化呈单峰分布,日最大值超前于城区.而且,昼间的浓度在5~7月高于冬季.本研究结果将有助于细化不利扩散条件下的污染减排方案.     

Methane emissions from rice fields under continuous straw return in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River

A three-year experiment was conducted in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China to study the influence of continuous wheat straw return during the rice season and continuous rice straw return in wheat on methane (CH 4 ) emissions from rice fields in which, the rice-wheat rotation system is the most dominant planting pattern. The field experiment was initiated in October 2009 and has continued since the wheat-growing season of that year. The analyses for the present study were conducted in the second (2011) and third (2012) rice growing seasons. Four treatments, namely, the continuous return of wheat straw and rice straw in every season (WR), of rice straw but no wheat straw return (R), of wheat straw but no rice straw return (W) and a control with no straw return (CK), were laid out in a randomized split-plot design. The total seasonal CH 4 emissions ranged from 107.4 to 491.7 kg/ha (2011) and 160.3 to 909.6 kg/ha (2012). The increase in CH 4 emissions for treatments WR and W were 289% and 230% in the second year and 185% and 225% in the third year, respectively, in relation to CK. We observed less methane emissions in the treatment R than in CK by 14%-43%, but not statistically significant. Treatment R could increase rice productivity while no more CH 4 emission occurs. The difference in the total CH 4 emissions mainly related to a difference in the methane flux rate during the first 30-35 days after transplant in the rice growing season, which was caused by the amount of dissolved oxygen in paddy water and the amount of reducible soil materials.