滇西北宁蒗地区喜山期斑岩带形成的构造机制

宁蒗地区地处扬子准地台西缘与松潘-甘孜褶皱系的接合部位．其东为南北向的康滇地轴．西为近南北向的三江构造带。这种特定的区域构造背景决定着本区基本的菱形构造格局。区内北东向金棉-木里断裂将本区划为两个不同的建造-构造区：宁蒗西北区和宁蒗东南区。宁蒗东南区受四条北东向与北西向深断裂为界的宁南菱形构造控制，形成了叙方对称型的宁南反凸双孤联合构造。该宁南反凸双孤联会构造东弧带追踪基底南北向构造所形成的包都-波罗弧形断裂构造，控制了本区喜山期斑岩带的形成和分布。区内斑岩群（体）主要分布于该主干控岩断裂带与其它多方向构造的复合系统中。通过模拟实验，进步验证了区内斑岩带的控岩造机制。     

Analysis of the severity of vehicle-bicycle crashes with data mining techniques

Introduction: Although cycling is increasingly being promoted for transportation, the safety concern of bicyclists is one of the major impediments to their adoption. A thorough investigation on the contributing factors to fatalities and injuries involving bicyclist. Method: This paper designs an integrated data mining framework to determine the significant factors that contribute to the severity of vehicle-bicycle crashes based on the crash dataset of Victorian, Australia (2013–2018). The framework integrates imbalanced data resampling, learning-based feature extraction with gradient boosting algorithm and marginal effect analysis. The top 10 significant predictors of the severity of vehicle-bicycle crashes are extracted, which gives an area under ROC curve (AUC) value of 0.8236 and computing time as 37.8 s. Results: The findings provide insights for understanding and developing countermeasures or policy initiatives to reduce severe vehicle-bicycle crashes.     

A new approach to managing work-related road traffic injury: The development of a health investment framework

Objective: Statistics indicate that employees commuting or traveling as part of their work are overrepresented in workplace injury and death. Despite this, many organizations are unaware of the factors within their organizations that are likely to influence potential reductions in work-related road traffic injury.

Methods: This article presents a multilevel conceptual framework that identifies health investment as the central feature in reducing work-related road traffic injury. Within this framework, we explore factors operating at the individual driver, workgroup supervisor, and organizational senior management levels that create a mutually reinforcing system of safety.

Results: The health investment framework identifies key factors at the senior manager, supervisor, and driver levels to cultivating a safe working environment. These factors are high-performance workplace systems, leader–member exchange and autonomy, trust and empowerment, respectively. The framework demonstrates the important interactions between these factors and how they create a self-sustaining organizational safety system.

Conclusions: The framework aims to provide insight into the future development of interventions that are strategically aligned with the organization and target elements that facilitate and enhance driver safety and ultimately reduce work-related road traffic injury and death.     

论农村居民点用地混合利用的研究框架

土地混合利用倡导不同使用性质/功能用地的混合布局,是提高经济发展活力与土地利用集约度的重要途径。当前,土地混合利用主要应用于城市用地演变与规划实践领域,伴随着城乡互动加剧,城乡界限趋于模糊,经济发达地区的农村居民点用地内部结构与功能逐渐多样化,也呈现显著的混合利用特征。基于此,尝试将土地混合利用应用到农村居民点用地演变与规划中,在回顾土地混合利用理论及其应用的基础上,按照“内涵特征—定量测度—驱动机理—实践路径”的逻辑思路,对经济发达地区的农村居民点用地混合利用进行系统解析,并以天津都市郊区的姚村为例实证本文提出的研究框架,在理论上丰富农村居民点用地转型的内容与方法,在实践中为编制村庄规划、助推乡村振兴提供科学支撑。     

基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架

为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本“生成→采集→处理→分析”各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于“情景-应对”数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。     

Resilience-based optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects in process plants

Domino effects triggered by fire can cause extremely severe damages to the chemical and process plants. In the need of a more effective prevention of fire domino effects, the present study focuses on firefighting which has received less attention compared to passive and active fire protection systems. Considering both the vulnerability and recoverability phases during fire domino effects, we have introduced a methodology for optimal identification of firefighting strategies so as to increase the resiliency of process plants in dealing with fire escalation scenarios. The area above the resilience curve (AARC), which is equal to the accumulation of loss of resilience over time, was considered as the metric to identify the optimal firefighting strategies. In other words, the strategy leading to the lowest AARC can be selected as the optimal strategy from a resiliency perspective.     

金属有机骨架材料MIL-101用于气态碘单质的吸附与释放

目的研究金属有机骨架材料MIL-101对气态碘单质的吸附与释放。方法采用水热合成法合成金属有机骨架材料MIL-101,并利用X射线衍射(XRD)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、N2吸附脱附等温线等表征方法对合成的MIL-101样品进行表征。将制备的金属有机骨架材料MIL-101在75℃环境下对气态碘单质进行吸附,将吸附后的材料于无水乙醇溶液中进行碘单质的释放。结果随着吸附时间的推移,金属有机骨架材料MIL-101对气态碘单质的吸附量逐渐升高,并于8 h逐渐达到饱和吸附量2.61 g(I2)/g(MIL-101)。MIL-101在无水乙醇溶液中随着时间的延长,材料吸附的碘单质渐渐释放出来。结论 MIL-101对气态碘单质在较高温度下有着优异的吸附效果,并表现出良好的循环使用性能,适合用于核电站蒸汽中放射性气态碘的吸附。     

Government management and overexploitation of groundwater resources: absence of local community initiatives in Ardabil plain-Iran

Although mismanagement of groundwater resources has resulted in their destruction over centuries, climate change is speeding up this process more than ever. On the one hand, urgent action by government bodies is needed to address the challenge. On the other hand, a vast body of literature proves that bottom-up collective action, although requiring a longer time period, is a better solution to manage such resources. This research aims to address this dilemma. The groundwater resource in Ardabil plain in Iran, which has long been managed solely through government intervention, has been chosen as a case study to explore the opportunities and limitations of managing a critically endangered area from a common pool resource perspective. Our study suggests that managing Ardabil groundwater resources should be conducted on two scales. The bottom-up institutional agreements should take place at village scale while the government should stay in charge of the overall organization at plain scale.     

Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments

Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) with fixed caps lack provisions to address systematic imbalances in the supply and demand of permits due to changes in the state of the regulated economy. We propose a mechanism which adjusts the allocation of permits based on the current bank of permits. The mechanism spans the spectrum between a pure quantity instrument and a pure price instrument. We solve the firms׳ emissions control problem and obtain an explicit dependency between the key policy stringency parameter—the adjustment rate—and the firms׳ abatement and trading strategies. We present an analytical tool for selecting the optimal adjustment rate under both risk-neutrality and risk-aversion, which provides an analytical basis for the regulator׳s choice of a responsive ETS policy.     

Policy strategies to foster the resilience of mountain social-ecological systems under uncertain global change

Globalization and climate change threaten the sustained provision of essential ecosystem services (ES) for people living in and downstream of mountain regions. The increasing evidence of the many vulnerabilities of mountain social-ecological systems has highlighted the urgent need for policy-relevant research into ways of coping with these trends. In this context, resilience has been emerging as a concept for both understanding and managing the complex social-ecological systems in which ES are provided and consumed. Yet, literature on resilience of social-ecological systems is mainly theoretical with limited application in real-world mountain case studies. In this paper, we present a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the social-ecological resilience of a case study in the Swiss Alps under global change. We model and evaluate an indicator for resilience that shows the capacity of the mountain social-ecological system to provide a set of demanded ES. In a first step, we model the development of this indicator in different scenarios of global change. In a second step, we test the effect of a rich set of policy strategies under all these scenarios to identify types and timing of interventions that are robust under multiple global change settings. Results indicate that the resilience of the mountain social-ecological system is endangered in all scenarios, especially if strong globalization is assumed. Robust strategies that buffer the system against these pressures require early spatial planning action in combination with more targeted direct payments to support the current regional structure and traditional mountain farming practices. Such information is crucial to guide decision-making processes in the era of highly uncertain future global change.