Catchment–coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment–coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form.     

乌梁素海湿地生态修复总体框架研究

以乌梁素海湿地生态修复为目标,在分析区域经济结构、流域生态环境与乌粱素海物理形态演变的基础上,明确了乌梁素海生态环境保护目标,提出乌梁素海湿地生态环境修复的措施.结果显示:巴彦淖尔市第二产业中一些污染较重的行业在经济结构中占有较大的比例;黄河过境可支配取水量不足;乌梁素海水体面积呈现溃缩状态且水质较差;乌梁素海生态环境修复应从区域产业结构转型、生态补水、区域农业、工业污染源削减及加强流域生态管理五个角度考虑.     

防灾减灾信息化顶层设计研究

为解决目前我国防灾减灾信息化建设中出现各自为政、低水平重复建设、信息资源整合共享不足等全局性问题和提高防灾减灾综合业务能力,研究防灾减灾信息化顶层设计问题。总结现有防灾减灾功能业务,用自上而下的顶层设计原则和自下而上的实施步骤,将信息化顶层设计内容划分为信息资源规划、信息技术规划、环境保障规划。最后,建立防灾减灾信息系统的总体目标架构。各防灾减灾相关部门可在此基础上根据业务横向整合的原则,划分防灾减灾信息系统的各个子系统。     

Reasonableness of a proposed System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) validation framework: An interview study

Since its inception, the STPA technique has gained increasing popularity among researchers and industry practitioners. Nevertheless, the validity of its application has not yet received much scientific attention. Although some informal validation approaches have been used by STPA users, no formalized validation framework has been elaborated for practical use. This paper investigates the reasonableness of the recently proposed STPA validation framework, which includes 15 validation tests, each focusing on a specific step of an STPA analysis. To do so, STPA experts in both academia and industry were interviewed. First, it is investigated what approaches they have been using for validating an STPA analysis, the findings of which were categorized and mapped with the proposed validation framework. This aims to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between the theory-based validation framework and the informal methods applied by experts in current practice. Then, the proposed framework was presented to the interviewees to seek their judgments about its reasonableness. Feedback from practitioners indicated that the proposed STPA validation framework has certain strengths, while several opportunities exist for further improvement. In particular, the findings indicate that most of the proposed theory-based tests have been already used by STPA experts in an unstructured manner. The experts appreciated the framework in that it provides clear guidance on how to validate each step of an STPA analysis systematically, and found some additional theory-based tests interesting for consideration in practice. The results also suggest that further research is needed to develop systematic techniques for performing each test to facilitate its application by STPA experts.     

上海市重大危险源监控和应急救援信息系统建设方案研究

通过对上海市安全生产"十一五"发展规划中重大科研攻关项目重大危险源监控和应急救援信息系统建设方案的研究,对整个系统的总体框架的搭建进行了初步探索。整个系统总体框架以企业安全生产管理系统、数据分析评估系统、事故应急救援指挥系统、GIS空间数据管理系统和GIS地理统计分析系统5大部分构成,辅以国际上先进的风险评估软件,使信息系统的建设更具先进性,为上海市预防和遏制重特大事故的发生,提高应急能力提供了保障条件。     

Empirical research on construction of a measurement framework for tourism carbon emission in China

According to the logic process of carbon reduction in China which arises from the measurement to reduction, from reduction to offsetting, the measurement of carbon emission in the tourism industry was the first and key step. Based on the life cycle assessment theory and input–output analysis, this article used economic and environmental measurement technologies, The System of National Accounting (SNA), Tourism Satellite Account (TSA), System of Integrated Environment and Economic Accounting (SEEA), and so on, and built up a top-down carbon emission analysis framework for the tourism industry and estimated carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007. The finding showed that the total carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 169.78 million tons, covering 2.71% of carbon emission of all industries in China in 2007, and 2.44% of the total carbon emission in China in 2007. The direct carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 73.56 million tons, including transportation (50.14 million tons), sightseeing (1.33 million tons), lodging (4.19 million tons), accommodation (4.73 million tons), shopping (8.14 million tons), entertainment (0.67 million tons), communication (0.45 million tons), and others (3.90 million tons). The indirect carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 96.23 million tons, mostly contributed by coking, gas, and petroleum processing industries, transportation and warehousing industry, machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, which covered 57%.     

Framing environmental indicators: moving from causal chains to causal networks

In recent years, there has been a boom in environmental assessment reports utilizing environmental indicators. Most of these publications are based on the casual chain frameworks (e.g., Pressure–State–Response (PSR), Driving force–State–Response (DSR), and Driving force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR)). These frameworks have made an important contribution by emphasising the importance of causality. However, the reliance on simple uni-directional chains is at the same time not very conducive to a good understanding of the complexity of the processes behind environmental indicators. This limits the usefulness of these frameworks for environmental (impact) assessments. In this paper we propose an enhanced DPSIR (eDPSIR) framework for environmental indicators that takes inter-relations of indicators into account by relying on the use of causal networks rather than causal chains. It will be shown how the concept of causal networks can increase insight into the inter-relation of environmental issues and associated indicators, can facilitate the identification of key indicators for particular kinds of questions, and can provide a useful first step to the establishment of dose–response functions. Working with causal networks can contribute to more appropriate environmental policies and better management decisions.     

Cost-Effective Mitigation of Diffuse Pollution: Setting Criteria for River Basin Management at Multiple Locations

A case study of the Yorkshire Derwent (UK) catchment is used to illustrate an integrated approach for assessing the viability of policy options for reducing diffuse nitrate losses to waterbodies. For a range of options, modeling methods for simulating river nitrate levels are combined with techniques for estimating the economic costs to agriculture of modifying those levels. By incorporating spatially explicit data and information on catchment residence times (which may span many decades particularly in areas of groundwater discharge) a method is developed for efficient spatial targeting of measures, for example, to the most at-risk freshwater environments. Combining hydrological and economic findings, the analysis reveals that, in terms of cost-effectiveness, the ranking of options is highly sensitive to both (i) whether or not specific stretches of river within a catchment are regarded as a priority for protection, and (ii) the criterion of nitrate concentration deemed most appropriate as an indicator of the health of the environment. Therefore, given the focus under European legislation upon ecological status of freshwaters, these conclusions highlight the need to improve understanding of mechanistic linkages between the chemical and biological dynamics of aquatic systems.     

Reconnecting to the Biosphere

Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.     

Tipping Toward Sustainability: Emerging Pathways of Transformation

This article explores the links between agency, institutions, and innovation in navigating shifts and large-scale transformations toward global sustainability. Our central question is whether social and technical innovations can reverse the trends that are challenging critical thresholds and creating tipping points in the earth system, and if not, what conditions are necessary to escape the current lock-in. Large-scale transformations in information technology, nano- and biotechnology, and new energy systems have the potential to significantly improve our lives; but if, in framing them, our globalized society fails to consider the capacity of the biosphere, there is a risk that unsustainable development pathways may be reinforced. Current institutional arrangements, including the lack of incentives for the private sector to innovate for sustainability, and the lags inherent in the path dependent nature of innovation, contribute to lock-in, as does our incapacity to easily grasp the interactions implicit in complex problems, referred to here as the ingenuity gap. Nonetheless, promising social and technical innovations with potential to change unsustainable trajectories need to be nurtured and connected to broad institutional resources and responses. In parallel, institutional entrepreneurs can work to reduce the resilience of dominant institutional systems and position viable shadow alternatives and niche regimes.