美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。     

基于D-S证据理论的“丝绸之路旅游带”5A景区区位优势度测评

景区发展与其区位条件密切相关,处于优势区位的景区更容易获得优先快速发展。以“丝绸之路旅游带”为例,综合考虑资源、市场、交通及服务四大区位因子,将其视为证据,引入D-S证据理论对景区区位优势进行测度,以I~V级表征区位由优到劣的状态,最后对景区区位与旅游发展核心区进行对比。结果显示：（1）区位优势等级区域差异化显著,总体呈现由东南至西北逐级递减的空间分布规律,自I至V级,重心逐步向西北方向偏移。（2）各区位因子分布存在差异性,东南地区景区资源区位优于西北地区;市场区位地带间差异最为明显,存在“长尾”特征及陕西“一省独大”现象;交通区位内在差异性与区位优势相仿;服务区位已不再是制约景区区位的主要因子,但就单个省份来看,“核心—边缘”结构较为明显。（3）与景区旅游发展对比来看,二者具有明显的空间关联性,但仍存在一定程度的空间错位现象。     

Institutionalizing sustainable development: Experiences in five countries

A multinational collaborative study during the summer of 1983 addressed organizational alternatives in natural systems management. Participants were particularly interested in ways different governments attempted to resolve the disparity between the interconnected quality of nature and the compartmentalized structure of bureaucracies. Five patterns of organization have evolved to meet this challenge: mission agencies managing ecosystems; independent or interagency central environmental units: environmental units within mission agencies; environmental components within central planning units; and regional superagencies. The systems developed by five nations—the United States, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—are analyzed and compared in terms of these five patterns.     

建设绿色“一带一路”的重要性——以乌兹别克斯坦资源环境特点为例

在"一带一路"建设中加强资源环境保护工作,不仅适应全球可持续发展的共识,更是我国发挥绿色引领作用的体现,助力构建共同繁荣区域大合作的关键和保障。文章以乌兹别克斯坦为例,基于对该国的实地调研,分析研究其资源环境特点及管理体制对推进"一带一路"的可能影响,提出了我国在"一带一路"建设过程中加强资源环境保护工作的几点建议。     

Behavioral influences on driver crash risks in Ghana: A qualitative study of commercial passenger drivers

Objectives: Though there is a growing body of literature on crash risks in the developed world, little is known about how well these models apply to motoring in developing countries, the context in which the majority of road traffic fatalities occur. This qualitative study explores factors perceived to influence crash risks for commercial drivers in Ghana.

Method: Twenty commercial drivers of varied ages and experience were sampled from 7 major lorry terminals in 3 regions (Greater Accra, Ashanti, and Volta) of Ghana. Data were collected through semistructured interviews.

Results: The participants identified some issues that are shared with drivers in the developed world, though moderated by the Ghanaian context. These included work pressures (e.g., fatigued driving), speeding, distracted driving, and inadequate vehicle maintenance. Other factors identified by participants are less frequently considered in research addressing driving behavior in developed countries. These included aggressive competition over passengers and corruption (e.g., improper licensing practices), among others.

Conclusion: The findings have implications for building a research base to support the development of road safety policy and interventions in developing countries.     

Evaluating the impact of criminalizing drunk driving on years of life lost due to road traffic deaths in one megacity,China

Objective: Road safety is an important public health issue worldwide. However, few studies have analyzed the association between criminalizing drunk driving and years of life lost (YLL) due to road traffic deaths (RTDs). Our study can provide useful information about this policy.

Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to find the changes in monthly YLL and RTD before and after law enforcement began using RTD data from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin.

Results: After adjustment for seasonality, months, holidays, and the number of people in each district, criminalizing drunk driving was followed by a 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–21.1%) reduction in risk of RTDs and a corresponding 778.1-year (95% CI, 200–1,355.1) reduction in monthly YLL. The reduction in YLL was especially significant among males, those aged 16–64 years old, and suburban residents.

Conclusions: This study highlights that the law can lead to a reduction in YLL due to RTDs in Tianjin, China. Large immediate public health benefits resulted from the new road traffic law in China. YLL provides a complementary measure for examining the effect of criminalization on drunk driving RTDs.     

A causal analysis of time-varying speed camera safety effects based on the propensity score method

Introduction: Speed limit enforcement cameras provide an effective approach to reduce vehicle speeds and the number of road accidents. However, it is still unclear whether the safety effects of speed cameras show durability over long periods of time. This paper analyses how the effects of speed cameras on road accidents change over time. A total number of 771 camera sites and 4787 potential control sites are observed for a period of 18 years (1999–2016) across England. Method: Covariates such as road class, crash history, speed limit, and annual average daily traffic (AADT) are included in the data set. A difference in difference (DID) based propensity score matching (PSM) method is employed to select proper control sites and estimate the treatment effects. The safety effects of speed cameras are then evaluated from a long-term perspective. The post-treatment period is divided into four equal-length periods: early, medium 1 and 2, and late. Results and Conclusions: The results show that speed cameras have significantly reduced the number of road accidents near the camera sites. However, the effects vary across different time periods. The safety effects of speed cameras experienced a sharp decrease during the medium periods after an initial period of highly reduced accidents (medium 1: −53.1%, medium 2: −40.7%) and recovered slightly during the late period. In addition, to evaluate the criteria for selecting camera sites in the UK, we further investigated whether speed cameras at high risk sites have better safety performance. The results show that while safety effects at high risk camera sites also decreased during the medium periods, the reduction was smaller (medium 1: −20.8%, medium 2: −2.1%). Practical Applications: Appropriate road traffic regulations and management, as well as proper camera sites selection criterion, are important to maintain the effectiveness of speed cameras.     

A 6-year survey of road traffic accidents in Southwest China: Emphasis on traumatic brain injury

Background: The objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date overview of the patterns of injuries, especially traumatic brain injury (TBI) caused by RTAs and to discuss some of the public health consequences. Methods: A scientific team was established to collect road traffic accidents occurring between 2013 and 2018 in Chongqing, Southwest China. For each accident, the environment-, vehicle-, and person- variables were analyzed and determined. The overall injury distribution and TBI patterns of four types of road users (driver, passenger, motorcyclist and pedestrian) were compared. The environmental and time distribution of accidents with TBI were shown by bar and pie chart. The risks of severe brain injury whether motorcyclist wearing helmets or not were compared and the risk factors of severe TBI in pedestrian were determined by odds ratio analysis. Results: This study enrolled 2131 accidents with 2741 persons of all kind of traffic participants, 1149 of them suffered AIS1+ head injury and 1598(58%) died in 7 days. The most common cause of deaths is due to head injury with 714(85%) and 1266(79%) persons died within 2 hours. Among 423 persons suffered both skull fracture and intracranial injury, 102 (24.1%) have an intracranial injury but no skull fractures, while none of the skull fractures without intracranial injury was found. Besides, motorcyclists without a helmet were at higher risks for all the brain injury categories. The risk of pedestrian suffering severe TBI at an impact speed of more than 70 km/h is 100 times higher than that with an impact speed of less than 40 km/h. Conclusion: It is urgently needed to develop a more reliable brain injury evaluation criterion for better protection of the road users. We believe that strengthening the emergency care to head injury at the scene is the most effective way to reduce traffic fatality.     

Beyond the material grave: Life Cycle Impact Assessment of leaching from secondary materials in road and earth constructions

In industrialized countries, large amounts of mineral wastes are produced. They are re-used in various ways, particularly in road and earth constructions, substituting primary resources such as gravel. However, they may also contain pollutants, such as heavy metals, which may be leached to the groundwater. The toxic impacts of these emissions are so far often neglected within Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of products or waste treatment services and thus, potentially large environmental impacts are currently missed. This study aims at closing this gap by assessing the ecotoxic impacts of heavy metal leaching from industrial mineral wastes in road and earth constructions. The flows of metals such as Sb, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, V and Zn originating from three typical constructions to the environment are quantified, their fate in the environment is assessed and potential ecotoxic effects evaluated. For our reference country, Germany, the industrial wastes that are applied as Granular Secondary Construction Material (GSCM) carry more than 45,000 t of diverse heavy metals per year. Depending on the material quality and construction type applied, up to 150 t of heavy metals may leach to the environment within the first 100 years after construction. Heavy metal retardation in subsoil can potentially reduce the fate to groundwater by up to 100%. One major challenge of integrating leaching from constructions into macro-scale LCA frameworks is the high variability in micro-scale technical and geographical factors, such as material qualities, construction types and soil types. In our work, we consider a broad range of parameter values in the modeling of leaching and fate. This allows distinguishing between the impacts of various road constructions, as well as sites with different soil properties. The findings of this study promote the quantitative consideration of environmental impacts of long-term leaching in Life Cycle Assessment, complementing site-specific risk assessment, for the design of waste management strategies, particularly in the construction sector.