一带一路背景下西部生态与绿色发展的改革与创新研究

西部地区资源开发、环境导向、经济发展等因素的制约下,西部地区的生态发展以及改革方案受到了严重的冲击,文中提出一带一路背景下西部生态与绿色发展的改革与创新方案.通过一带一路指示精神融合西部地区的特有生态水平,进行了综合分析,并根据实际的发展要求进行深入指导.对一带一路背景下西部生态与绿色发展的改革进行了详细的解读,把西部生态环境与绿色生态发展之间的矛盾进行分析,通过一带一路的思想和方针解决了现有改革中的矛盾.结合一带一路的实质路线对西部生态与绿色发展的创新进行了深入的探讨,基于"一带一路"战略带来各种促进的政策,确定了西部地区生态与绿色发展创新方向.     

Deprived neighborhoods and risk of road trauma (incidence and severity) among under 25year-olds in the Rhône Département (France)

Introduction

Previous research has shown that there are inequalities with regard to traffic accident risk between different social categories. This study describes the influence of the type of residential municipality (with or without deprived urban areas, “ZUS, zones urbaines sensibles”), used as an indicator of contextual deprivation, on the incidence and severity of road trauma involving people of under 25 years of age in the Rhône.

Method

Injury data were taken from The Rhône Road Trauma Registry. The study covers the 2004–2007 period, with 13,589 young casualties. The incidence of traffic injury of all severities were computed according to the type of municipality and the age, gender, and type of road user. The ratios of the incidences of deprived municipalities, compared with others were calculated. Subsequently the severity factors and incidences according to the severity level (ISS 1–8, ISS 9+) were studied.

Results

For the main types of road users except motorized two-wheeler users, the incidences were higher in the deprived municipalities: the greatest difference was for pedestrians, where the incidences were almost twice those of other municipalities. This excess risk, constituting a health inequality topic rarely considered, was even greater in municipalities with two or three ZUSs. It was essentially observed for minor injuries among motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians.

Conclusions

While the incidence increased among people less than 25 years of age, the severity of road injuries was lower in deprived neighborhoods, contrary to what is suggested by other studies. This lower severity disappeared when taking into account the crash characteristics.

Impact on industry

The incidence of injuries as a pedestrian, cyclist or motorist is higher among young people living in deprived municipalities. These areas should therefore be the targets of dedicated education programs, as well as further investigations about urban planning.     

Increasing development in the surroundings of U.S. National Park Service holdings jeopardizes park effectiveness

Protected areas are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but they are in danger of becoming islands in a sea of human dominated landscapes. Our question was if protected areas may even foster development in their surroundings because they provide amenities that attract development, thus causing the isolation of the ecosystems they were designed to protect. Our study analyzed historic aerial photographs and topographical maps to reconstruct road development and building growth within and around Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores in the U.S. Great Lakes region from 1938 to 2005, and to estimate the effects of park creation in 1966 on changes in landscape patterns. Historic U.S. census housing density data were used as a baseline to compare observed changes to. Our results showed that park establishment was effective in reducing and stopping the fragmenting impact of development within park boundaries. However, increased amenity levels following park establishment led to enhanced development in the surroundings of both parks. In the extreme case of Indiana Dunes, building density outside the park increased from 45 to 200 buildings/km² and road density almost doubled from 3.6 to 6.6 km/km² from 1938 to 2005. Development rates of change were much higher than in the broader landscape, particularly after park establishment. The potential amenity effect was up to 9500 new buildings in the 3.2-km zone around Indiana Dunes between 1966 and 2005. For Pictured Rocks the absolute effect was smaller but up to 70% of the observed building growth was potentially due to amenity effects. Our findings highlight the need for conservation planning at broader scales, incorporating areas beyond the boundaries of protected areas.     

新陈代谢模型滑动指标检验及其在道路交通噪声预测中的应用

定义了灰色新陈代谢模型的滑动指标,实现了对新陈代谢模型各项精度指标及其稳定性的动态检验。对长春市1995年～2006年城市道路交通干线噪声监测的数据运用灰色系统理论,分别建立了3种预测模型,并对这3种模型的各项滑动指标、一步预测滚动指标分别进行了检验。     

Land-traffic crash leading to passenger vehicle submersion,drowning and other fatal injuries: A 44-year study based on records from the Finnish Crash Data Institute

Background: Land motor traffic crash (LMTC) -related drownings are an overlooked and preventable cause of injury death. The aim of this study was to analyze the profile of water-related LMTCs involving passenger cars and leading to drowning and fatal injuries in Finland, 1972 through 2015. Materials and methods: The database of the Finnish Crash Data Institute (FCDI) that gathers detailed information on fatal traffic accidents provided records on all LMTCs leading to drowning during the study period and, from 2002 to 2015, on all water-related LMTCs, regardless of the cause of death. For each crash, we considered variables on circumstances, vehicle, and fatality profiles. Results: During the study period, the FCDI investigated 225 water-related LMTCs resulting in 285 fatalities. The majority of crashes involved passenger cars (124), and the cause of death was mostly drowning (167). Only 61 (36.5%) fatalities suffered some–generally mild–injuries. The crashes frequently occurred during fall or summer (63.7%), in a river or ditch (60.5%), and resulted in complete vehicle’s submersion (53.7 %). Half of the crashes occurred in adverse weather conditions and in over 40% of the cases, the driver had exceeded the speed limit. Among drivers, 77 (68.8%) tested positive for alcohol (mean BAC 1.8%). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary investigations of LMTCs have a much higher potential than do exclusive police and medico-legal investigations. The risk factors of water-related LMTCs are similar to those of other traffic crashes. However, generally the fatal event in water-related LMTC is not the crash itself, but drowning. The paucity of severe physical injuries suggests that victims’ functional capacity is usually preserved during vehicle submersion. Practical Applications: In water-related LMTCs, expansion of safety measures is warranted from general traffic-injury prevention to prevention of drowning, including development of safety features for submerged vehicles and simple self-rescue protocols to escape from a sinking vehicle.     

Improving the safety of distracted pedestrians with in-ground flashing lights. A railway crossing field study

Introduction: Current signage at intersections is designed for attentive pedestrians who are looking ahead. Such signage may not be sufficient when distracted by smartphones. Illuminated in-ground LED lights at crossings are an innovative solution to alert distracted pedestrians. Method: We conducted a field study at a railway crossing equipped with in-ground lights to assess whether distracted pedestrians (N = 34, Mean age 33.6 ± 8.6 years) could detect these lights and how this impacted on their visual scanning and crossing behaviour. This involved a 2 × 3 repeated measures design exploring the impact of the presence (treatment) or absence (control) of in-ground lights (treatment) at a crossing, and a distractor task presented through a mobile device (none, visual, and audio) on eye movements recorded using an eye tracker, and verbal reporting of when participants detected the lights. Results: Participants engaged in the distraction tasks as evidenced by their accuracy and reaction times in all conditions. With both the audio and visual distraction tasks, participants looked at the in-ground LEDs and detected their activation as accurately as when not distracted (95%). While most participants detected the lights at their activation, visual distraction resulted in 10% of the detections occurring as participants entered the rail corridor, suggesting effectiveness in gaining pedestrians’ attention. Further, participants were significantly less likely to check for trains when visually distracted (70%), a 10% reduction compared to the no or audio distractor conditions (80% and 78% respectively). The introduction of the in-ground lights resulted in appropriate scanning of the rail tracks (77% and 78% for the visual and auditory distractor tasks respectively) similar to that of non-distracted participants for the crossing without lights (80%). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that illuminated in-ground lights could be useful in attracting the attention of distracted pedestrians at railway level crossings, and possibly at other road intersections. Practical Applications: Illuminated in-ground lights can be installed at rail and road intersections with known pedestrian distraction as a countermeasure. Further research is necessary to understand their long-term effects.     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.     

Research on the prediction model of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents

In recent years, hazardous chemicals road transport accidents have occurred frequently, causing huge casualties and property losses, and accident risk assessment has become the focus of researchers' research. To predict the risk probability value of hazardous chemical road transport accidents, first, we compiled data on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China in the past five years. And the nine nodes in the Bayesian network (BN) structure were defined in combination with relevant classification standards. The optimal Bayesian network structure for hazardous chemical road transport accidents was determined based on the K2 algorithm and the causalities between the nodes. Second, the node conditional probabilities were derived by parameter learning of the model using Netica, and the validity of the model was verified using the 5-fold cross-validation method. Last, the Bayesian network model of hazardous chemical road transport accidents is used to analyze accident examples, and the accident chain of “rear-end-leakage” is predicted, and the accident is most likely to be disposed of within 3–9 h. The study shows that the derived accident prediction model for hazardous chemical road transportation can reason reasonably about the evolution of accident scenarios and determine the probability values of accident risks under different parameter conditions.     

基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球重要的人口集聚区。以人粮关系为主线,从全域到国别研究了1995—2017年沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局。结果表明：研究期内,（1）沿线国家耕地总量与人均耕地量分别降至6.96×10⁸hm²和2.23亩/人,分别约为全球水平的50%和80%,约80%的国家人均耕地在下降;（2）承载力增至45.95亿人,近90%的国家在提高,但西亚及中东多数国家在下降;（3）地均承载力增至90人/km²水平,约为全球水平的1.5倍,孟加拉国、匈牙利、越南超300人/km²;（4）人粮关系从超载转向临界超载,粮食盈余国家增多,主要为耕地面积广的产粮大国。半数国家土地仍超载,多为气候干旱区与岛屿国家。研究有助于深化与沿线国家的粮食安全合作和提高项目建设布局的科学性。     

“一带一路”沿线省区科技创新与旅游经济协调发展及影响因素研究

以我国“一带一路”沿线18个省区为考察区域,运用熵值法、耦合协调分析和面板数据模型,构建科技创新与旅游经济协调发展评价体系,对两大子系统发展、综合协调发展及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:①我国“一带一路”沿线省区科技创新与旅游经济子系统呈相对稳定或显著上升发展特征,长三角和珠三角等沿海地区发展等级较高,而西北内陆省区较低。②2006—2018年,多数省区科技创新与旅游经济综合评价水平呈稳定上升态势,且优势型省区均集中在东南沿海地区。③科技创新与旅游经济系统间联系不断增强并向良性协调方向发展,提升科技创新能力是多数省区实现两系统协调发展的重点。④旅游人力资本、创新支撑环境和科技创新产出是两大系统协调发展的重要影响因素。