Acciphilia on the road: An analysis of severe collisions

Introduction

Although prior studies of road traffic accidents have found between-group differences in risk, little attention has been given to the encounter between drivers involved in severe collisions.

Method

The present study empirically evaluates two different possible causes of "social accidents," which are defined as collisions between two or more drivers where some faulty social interaction might be assumed, and which are the most prevalent cause of road injuries. The analyses use merged Israeli collision records from 1983 to 2004 with data from two national censuses, thus providing an unprecedented empirical basis to study the social foundations of car accidents. The data are used to adjudicate between two alternative hypotheses: the heterogeneity hypothesis (socially different drivers tend to collide) versus the homogeneity hypothesis (socially similar drivers tend to collide).

Results

Multivariate analyses provide preliminary support for the latter hypothesis. Given an accident, there are more collisions among drivers from the same broad educational group, and the factors that influence this correlation are independent of geography. The paper thus leads to the idea that severe collisions reflect a sociological or ecological process that is akin to acciphilia.

Impact on Industry

The preliminary findings suggest that variation between drivers may be preferable to similarity, since apparently there is a greater tendency toward collisions between similar drivers.     

"The little squealer" or "the virtual guardian angel"? Young drivers' and their parents' perspective on using a driver monitoring technology and its implications for parent-young driver communication

Introduction

In-vehicle driving monitoring technologies have the potential to enable young drivers to learn from self-assessment. However, their use is largely dependent on parental involvement.

Method

A total of 79 interviews were conducted with young drivers and parents regarding this technology and its use. Most had the experience of having an in-vehicle data recorder installed in the vehicle driven by the young drivers. Parents and the young drivers expressed both appreciation as well as reservations about its potential as a means to enhance the driving safety of young drivers.

Results

A surprising finding was that some parents did not check the feedback and said they relied on the young driver to do so. Main concerns related to privacy, parent-young driver relationship, self-esteem and confidence, constructive use of the feedback data, and the limitations of the documentation that can be done by the technology.

Conclusions

Providing parents and young drivers with a support system and tools to discuss and utilize the feedback are underscored. Challenges include addressing the invasion of young drivers’ privacy and gender differences, and using the monitoring-capacity of the technology to enhance safe driving practices. Implications for programs to enhance communication and a dialogical approach between parents and young drivers are discussed.     

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India

Introduction

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation.

Method

The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.

Results

The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations.

Conclusions

The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study.     

北京城市典型下垫面降雨径流污染初始冲刷效应分析

城市硬化地表的迅速增加使得降雨径流量增加,屋面和路面等下垫面上污染物的大量累积并随径流进入城市排水系统,对城市水环境造成威胁.为了解径流污染过程和给径流污染控制提供科学依据,于2004～2006年选取典型屋面和路面对径流污染过程进行了监测和分析,计算了两种径流的次降雨平均浓度(EMC)水平,发现两类径流的COD和TN污染较为严重;屋面径流的化学需氧量(COD)、总氮(TN)分别超标(地表水环境质量标准GB 3838-2002 V类)3.64和4.80倍;路面径流的COD、TN分别超标3.73和1.07倍.利用M(V)曲线,判断径流量同径流污染负荷的关系,发现屋面径流污染物总悬浮颗粒物(TSS)、COD、TN和总磷(TP)发生了不同程度的初始冲刷现象;路面初始冲刷现象主要表现为TSS和TP,总体上初始冲刷效应不明显.汇水面性质、降雨强度、污染物累积状况等都是影响屋面和路面径流污染物排放特征的重要影响因素.     

Safety climate factors, group differences and safety behaviour in road construction

This study determines the factor structure of safety climate within a road construction organization using a modified version of the safety climate questionnaire (SCQ). It also investigates the relationship between safety climate and safety performance. The SCQ was administered to 192 employees from two districts and in two job categories — construction and maintenance. A behavioural observation measure of safety performance was also developed. Factor analysis derived six factors, which were similar to those obtained in an earlier study using the SCQ. Differences in the safety climate of job sub-groups were found on two of the factors. No differences between the two districts were found. No relationship was found between safety climate and the safety performance measure. While identical safety climate factors cannot apply to all organizations, some general safety climate factors may emerge. Discussion focuses upon the measurement of safety climate.     

A safety analysis of roundabouts and turbo roundabouts based on Petri nets

Objective: In this work, a roundabout and a turbo roundabout model are compared and previous modeling with continuous Petri nets and safety are analyzed through indicators of complexity. Petri nets are a graphic and mathematical representation that allow a faithful modeling of urban systems.

Method: The methodology has been designed for the transformation of a real system to small subgraphs that represent the maneuvers in roundabouts, approximated as roads and lanes of incorporation. Places within the roundabout have been located and defined as continuous places from their influence and visibility toward adjacent conditions. The transitions have been modeled by time and inhibitory arcs, which represent priorities and areas where drivers must pay attention. The created networks represent a faithful model of vehicle flow trajectories in the roundabouts.

Results: The methodology is applied to the same real road intersection. The case study is a recent transformation from roundabout to turbo roundabout. The roundabout network complexity is corroborated by a greater number of entries and exits that lead to each roundabout place (reflected in the maneuvers that can be performed) and a greater number of inhibiting arcs. In most of the turbo roundabout places, the driver’s only option is reduced to occupying next place. The possibility of choosing between several places supposes a greater trajectory intersection and an increased time for decision making. The only situation where the complexity is the same between both systems is when a vehicle accesses the inner lane of the roundabout from the left lane on a single-lane road. The main maneuvers causing accidents have been modeled and their solution in a turbo roundabout is presented.

Conclusions: The reduced complexity of the turbo roundabout is due to the strict limitations in lane changes, turning turbo roundabouts into a safer model: A lower number of possible movements that can be performed by drivers and a smaller number of trajectories with collision risk. Petri nets have proven to be perfectly applicable to the representation of traffic circular systems (such as roundabouts and turbo roundabouts) and to measure the complexity and security of the system.     

机动车排放检测运行体系的相关研究

机动车污染物排放标准与其检测方法是相辅相成的，不同的机动车检测方法对应不同的机动车排放污染物限值。该文主要对机动车排放检测运行体系中的怠速和简易工况检测方法进行了对比性研究，并对机动车实施常规检测的年检和监督手段的路检进行了对比分析，从而得出：工况法检测对于尾气排放情况的模拟要优于怠速法检测，并可对NOx进行有效控制，所以建议在有条件的地区，应该尽量实施工况法检测：年检和路检的数据有较大的差异，反映出对在用车的监督不力，今后应加强；高排放车辆的贡献率所占的比例与发达国家相比太小，说明机动车总体控制水平较低。     

西安城市交通干道汽车污染物排放因子

在西安城市交通隧道内设３ 个空气监测点，对通过隧道的汽车排气形成的污染物浓度、隧道内风速、过往隧道的交通量进行采样、观测和统计。根据实测数据用大气扩散方程求得西安城市道路汽车平均单车 Ｃ Ｏ、 Ｈ Ｃ 和 Ｎ Ｏｘ 排放因子分别为３３２７９ ±１２１５８ 、３５７７ ±１８１６ 和４６０５ ±１９８１ ｍｇ／ｍ·ｖｅｈ 。与国外的成果相比，中国城市道路汽车 Ｃ Ｏ 和 Ｈ Ｃ 排放因子分别是国外发达国家汽车排放因子的２ ～９ 倍和３ ～９ 倍，而中国城市汽车 Ｎ Ｏｘ 排放因子约为发达国家汽车排放因子的二分之一。     

美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。