THE INFLUENCE OF (x,y) UNCERTAINTY ON PREDICTION ERROR AND CONTOUR LINES FROM A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SURFACE1

ABSTRACT: In geohydrology, three-dimensional surfaces are typically represented as a series of contours. Water levels, saturated thickness, precipitation, and geological formation boundaries are a few examples of this practice. These surfaces start as point measurements that are then analyzed to interpolate between the known point measurements. This first step typically creates a raster or a set of grid points. In modeling, subsequent processing uses these to represent the shape of a surface. For display, they are usually converted to contour lines. Unfortunately, in many field applications, the (x, y) location on the earth's surface is much less confidently known than the data in the z dimension. To test the influence of (x, y) locational accuracy on z dimension point predictions and their resulting contours, a Monte Carlo study was performed on water level data from northwestern Kansas. Four levels of (x, y) uncertainty were tested ranging in accuracy from one arc degree-minute (± 2384 feet in the x dimension and ± 3036 feet in the y dimension) to Global Positioning Systems (GPS) accuracy (± 20 feet for relatively low cost systems). These span the range of common levels of locational uncertainty in data available to hydrologists in the United States. This work examines the influence that locational uncertainty can have on both point predictions and contour lines. Results indicate that overall mean error exhibits a small sensitivity to locational uncertainty. However, measures of spread and maximum errors in the z domain are greatly affected. In practical application, this implies that estimates over large regions should be asymptotically consistent. However, local errors in z can be quite large and increase with (x, y) uncertainty.     

Impact of Busy Roads on Breeding Success in Pied Flycatchers <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ficedula hypoleuca</Emphasis>

The impact of dense traffic on the breeding success in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) was studied using roadside nest-boxes. Nest site selection and breeding success of flycatchers were observed in relation to the distance from the road. The number of occupied territories was no higher closer to the road than it was deeper inside the forest. The distance to the road had no effect on the laying date, clutch size, or brood size. However, nests closer to the road were more likely to fail at the chick stage. The number of broods that were closer to roads and were lost completely was significantly higher than those further away. As a consequence, the number of fledglings per breeding attempt decreased closer to roads. The nestlings typically died as older chicks when the parent birds were providing them with maximum quantities of food. A possible reason for the declining reproductive success was the traffic-related mortality of parent birds, as weather conditions were not especially adverse for raising healthy offspring.     

Persistence and developmental transition of wide seismic lines in the western Boreal Plains of Canada

This study examined the fate of seismic lines utilized in oil and gas exploration in Canada's western Boreal Plains. It retrospectively followed the persistence, recovery and developmental transition of seismic lines established between the 1960s and the mid-1970s through to 2003. We examined lines that passed through three forest types; aspen, white spruce, and lowland black spruce. In general, the recovery rates of seismic lines to woody vegetation were low. After 35 years, 8.2% of seismic lines across all forest types had recovered to greater than 50% cover of woody vegetation. Only the upland forest types recovered; aspen and white spruce. Most seismic lines ( approximately 65% at 35 years) remained in a cleared state with a cover of low forbs. The most common transition for seismic lines was to tracked access ( approximately 20% at 35 years). Transition to other anthropogenic developments such as roads, pipelines, buildings, and timber harvest blocks was 5% after 35 years. The pulse of industrial activity initiated in the mid-1990s greatly increased the transition rate of seismic to tracked access for a short period of time. The discussion focused on natural and anthropogenic factors that hinder recovery and on the management directions that would facilitate greater recovery rates.     

Reinforcing the rules or integrating behavioural responses into road planning

Road planning is based on technical rules, know-how acquired from experience and professional expertise. A more ergonomics approach to road planning and safety analyses the psychological procedures used by the drivers. Every intervention on road network has an influence on safety. Increasing the coherency of all the interventions in the same area is the only possible way of producing areas with a better level of security. This paper deals with safety procedures, diagnostics and tools which can be used at different levels of intervention.     

Research on the prediction model of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents

In recent years, hazardous chemicals road transport accidents have occurred frequently, causing huge casualties and property losses, and accident risk assessment has become the focus of researchers' research. To predict the risk probability value of hazardous chemical road transport accidents, first, we compiled data on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China in the past five years. And the nine nodes in the Bayesian network (BN) structure were defined in combination with relevant classification standards. The optimal Bayesian network structure for hazardous chemical road transport accidents was determined based on the K2 algorithm and the causalities between the nodes. Second, the node conditional probabilities were derived by parameter learning of the model using Netica, and the validity of the model was verified using the 5-fold cross-validation method. Last, the Bayesian network model of hazardous chemical road transport accidents is used to analyze accident examples, and the accident chain of “rear-end-leakage” is predicted, and the accident is most likely to be disposed of within 3–9 h. The study shows that the derived accident prediction model for hazardous chemical road transportation can reason reasonably about the evolution of accident scenarios and determine the probability values of accident risks under different parameter conditions.     

Wider roads, more cars

The transport policy currently followed in many European cities seems to be a combination of investments in public transport in order to increase, or at least maintain, its market share, and road building in order to keep up with expected traffic growth. Apparently, there is a prevalent belief among policy makers that increased road capacity in urban areas does not in itself cause any growth in car traffic worth mentioning. Such a belief neglects the simple economic theory of supply and demand, as well as more specific theories about the dynamics of traffic under congested conditions. An empirical study of commuting patterns in two transport corridors in Oslo, Norway, shows that a considerable proportion of commuters are sensitive to changes in the speed of the respective modes of transportation. The mode chosen depends to a large extent on the ratio of door-to-door travel times by car and transit. Freer flowing traffic in the road network will induce a higher proportion of commuters to travel by car. Conversely, faster public transport will reduce the proportion of car commuters, but the effects of such improvements will be offset if road capacity is simultaneously increased. In addition to the relative speeds of car and transit, the parking conditions at the workplace are of great importance to the choice of transport mode.     

Experimental investigation into different selectively coated receivers and silver-coated selective surface compound parabolic reflector using regression modelling for industrial heating

The paper explores the experimental results of the prototype compound parabolic trough made of mild steel and silver-coated selective surface. This prototype has been tested with top cover. The performance of the collector has been evaluated with two kinds of receivers coated with three types of black coatings. First receiver is of copper coated with black copper, second receiver is of mild steel coated with black copper and third receiver is of copper coated with black zinc. From actual field experiments, it has been observed that the efficiency of the system achieved with copper receiver coated with black copper is comparatively higher than the other two types of receivers. A simple regression analysis is used to correlate the thermal performance parameters of the system.     

川主寺至九寨沟旅游公路建设与环境保护

川主寺至九寨沟公路(简称“川九”路)是交通部、四川省重点建设工程。项目所在地海拔高、生态环境脆弱,又是旅游胜地,做到公路建设与环境保护的协调统一是本工程的核心内容。通过分析公路建设环境影响,主要针对施工期提出行之有效的环境保护措施并贯彻于设计和施工中,达到了交通部“安全、舒适、环保、示范”的要求,建设了我国第一条高原区生态公路。     

Land-traffic crash leading to passenger vehicle submersion,drowning and other fatal injuries: A 44-year study based on records from the Finnish Crash Data Institute

Background: Land motor traffic crash (LMTC) -related drownings are an overlooked and preventable cause of injury death. The aim of this study was to analyze the profile of water-related LMTCs involving passenger cars and leading to drowning and fatal injuries in Finland, 1972 through 2015. Materials and methods: The database of the Finnish Crash Data Institute (FCDI) that gathers detailed information on fatal traffic accidents provided records on all LMTCs leading to drowning during the study period and, from 2002 to 2015, on all water-related LMTCs, regardless of the cause of death. For each crash, we considered variables on circumstances, vehicle, and fatality profiles. Results: During the study period, the FCDI investigated 225 water-related LMTCs resulting in 285 fatalities. The majority of crashes involved passenger cars (124), and the cause of death was mostly drowning (167). Only 61 (36.5%) fatalities suffered some–generally mild–injuries. The crashes frequently occurred during fall or summer (63.7%), in a river or ditch (60.5%), and resulted in complete vehicle’s submersion (53.7 %). Half of the crashes occurred in adverse weather conditions and in over 40% of the cases, the driver had exceeded the speed limit. Among drivers, 77 (68.8%) tested positive for alcohol (mean BAC 1.8%). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary investigations of LMTCs have a much higher potential than do exclusive police and medico-legal investigations. The risk factors of water-related LMTCs are similar to those of other traffic crashes. However, generally the fatal event in water-related LMTC is not the crash itself, but drowning. The paucity of severe physical injuries suggests that victims’ functional capacity is usually preserved during vehicle submersion. Practical Applications: In water-related LMTCs, expansion of safety measures is warranted from general traffic-injury prevention to prevention of drowning, including development of safety features for submerged vehicles and simple self-rescue protocols to escape from a sinking vehicle.     

Traffic mortality and the role of minor roads

Roads have large impacts on wildlife, as they form one of the principal causes of mortality, and disturbance and fragmentation of habitat. These impacts are mainly studied and mitigated on major roads. It is, however, a widespread misconception that most animals are killed on major roads. In this paper, we argue that minor roads have a larger impact on wildlife with respect to habitat destruction, noise load and traffic mortality. We use data on traffic related deaths in badgers (Meles meles) in The Netherlands to illustrate that traffic mortality is higher on minor roads. We ask for a more extensive investigation of the environmental impacts of minor roads. Moreover, we argue that the success of mitigation on roads drastically increases when both major and minor roads are integrated in the planning of traffic flows. Therefore, we propose a strategy based on the concept of a "traffic-calmed area". Traffic-calmed areas create opportunities for wildlife by decreasing limitations for animal movement. We ask for further studies to estimate what size traffic-calmed areas should be to maintain minimum viable animal populations.