基于正交试验、组合赋权-灰色关联度法研究隧道施工最优方案

为保证浅埋暗挖大断面隧道施工稳定性,提出正交试验、组合赋权-灰色关联度法研究隧道施工最优方案,确保隧道顺利竣工。依托北京地铁17号线天通苑站出入段线大断面浅埋暗挖渐变隧道工程,首先根据影响隧道施工稳定性的因素,构建L16（5×4）正交表进行正交试验,建立三维模型,然后采用组合赋权-灰色关联度法对试验数据进行处理,关联度越高说明隧道稳定性越好,通过各水平平均关联度选择最优方案,将最优方案运用于天通苑站浅埋暗挖隧道。研究结果表明:最优方案的各项数据均比原始方案小,而且施工现场地面未出现明显裂缝,隧道稳定性较好,说明组合赋权-灰色关联度法在实际工程中有较高的实用性,对于类似复杂隧道工程也有借鉴意义。     

阻塞条件下地铁隧道坡度对烟气逆流长度影响研究

在隧道纵向通风系统设计中,烟气逆流长度是至关重要的参数,传统的理论预测模型多适用于公路隧道,对阻塞条件下有坡度的地铁隧道烟气逆流长度的研究较少。通过理论分析、缩尺寸实验和FDS数值模拟,推导了适用于阻塞条件下有坡度的地铁隧道的无量纲烟气逆流长度模型,得到了烟气逆流长度随坡度的变化规律。研究结果表明,基于FDS模拟的水平地铁隧道烟气逆流长度与实验结果变化规律基本一致,该FDS模型可以研究不同坡度工况,且逆流长度随着坡度的增加呈增加趋势。     

Risk factors for being the at-fault driver: A case–control study

Objective: It is estimated that road traffic accidents are globally responsible for approximately 1.2 million deaths and 20 to 50 million injuries. About 70% of traffic incidences (TIs) occur in developing countries and among countries with high TI rates; Iran is the first. The aim of this study was to measure the association between being responsible for a traffic accident and some vehicle, human; and environmental related factors in Yasuj, a city with a high incidence of road traffic injuries and deaths in Iran.

Methods: This is a time-, date-, and place-matched case–control study conducted in 2015 using all traffic accidents registered and investigated by police during 2012. In total, 194 drivers were considered the at-fault driver in a traffic accident and the 194 drivers in the same collisions were included in the analysis.

Results: Based on the results from multivariate conditional logistic regression, significant associations between vehicle maneuver (OR_{Turn to right or left/Moving forward} = 11.10, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.77–69.58, P = .01) and age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11, 95% CI, 1.004–1.22, P = .04) and the chance of being an at-fault driver were found.

Conclusion: Driver behavior–related interventions including training and law enforcement seem to be more effective in reducing road traffic accidents in Iran.     

城市道路两侧土壤重金属分布特征及生态风险评价

通过采集吕梁市G209线公路两侧土壤,研究土壤中锌、铜、镍、铅4种重金属的分布特征,并采用单因子污染指数法和内梅罗综合指数法进行生态风险评价。结果表明:采样点距离公路直线距离越大,土壤中重金属含量越低,且主要富集在0~20m可耕层,表现出明显的垂直递减规律。土壤重金属污染程度为:Pb(中度污染)>Cu(轻微污染)>Ni(轻微污染)>Zn(未污染),生态风险评价等级为Ⅴ,属于重污染。汽车尾气的排放是主要污染来源,对于农业用地,农药、化肥的施用也是主要污染源。     

武汉市道路交通业CO_2排放与减排潜力分析

为了促进武汉市低碳经济发展,减少交通出行带来的碳排放压力,核算了武汉市道路交通出行的CO2排放量,并采用低度、中度和强化3种减排情景模式对武汉道路交通出行的碳减排潜力进行了测算,计算出了不同情景下武汉市道路交通出行的碳减排强度。结果表明,2005年以来道路交通业CO2排放总量呈显著增长趋势。私家轿车的CO2排放量增加速度最快,大货车的CO2排放量在各类交通工具排放量中占比最大,公交车和出租车的CO2排放量所占比例较小。对3种不同情景的模拟结果表明,在低度减排情景减排效果有限,强化低碳情景下才能达到减排效果。建议采取以下减排措施:改进基础设施,创建良好的出行环境;推进技术创新,降低机动车能耗污染;提升公民素质,加大碳减排的宣传力度;优化道路运输的能效和经营效率管理等。     

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the road deaths to road injuries ratio and economic growth

Introduction: Past empirical studies indicated that there is a Kuznets or reverse U-shaped relationship between road deaths and per capita income, such that the number of road death increases at a low level of per capita reverse U-shaped relationship was observed between road injuries and per capita income. While these studies explored the impact of per capita income on road deaths and road injuries, no studies have examined the relationship between per capita income and road death to road injury ratio (DPI). Method: Using a fixed effects panel regression analysis from 67 countries spanning over a period of five decades (1960–2013), the present study sought to explore the impact of per capita gross domestic product (per capita GDP) on the DPI ratio and the underlying factors responsible for the relationship. Results: Our result suggests that per capita GDP followed a reverse U-shaped relationship with DPI. Moreover, the relative improvements in higher mobility roads as compared to improvements in higher accessibility roads, motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio, percentage of population living in an urban area, infant mortality rate, and the percentage of population below 15 years of age and above 64 years of age contributed to this relationship. Practical Applications: This implies that, at lower level of economic growth where road deaths exceed road injuries, countries should implement low-cost measures to combat road deaths cases. Such measures include mandating wearing of quality helmets and daytime running headlights for motorcycles. On the other hand, at higher level of economic growth where road injuries surpass road deaths, countries are encouraged to devote more resources to improving medical technology and services to treat road injury victims, mandating seatbelt use, as well as enhancing and promoting public transportation service.     

“Like it’s wrong,but it’s not that wrong:” Exploring the normalization of risk-compensatory strategies among young drivers engaging in illegal smartphone use

Introduction: Young drivers are the most vulnerable road users and most likely to use a smartphone illegally while driving. Although when compared with drink-driving, attitudes to illegal smartphone risk are nearly identical, smartphone use among young drivers continues to increase. Method: Four in-depth focus groups were conducted with 13 young (18–25 years) drivers to gain insight into their perceptions of the risks associated with the behavior. Our aim was to determine how drivers navigate that risk and if their behavior shapes and informs perceptions of norms. Results: Three key themes emerged: (a) participants perceived illegal smartphone use as commonplace, easy, and benign; (b) self-regulatory behaviors that compensate for risk are pervasive among illegal smartphone users; and (c) risk-compensation strategies rationalize risks and perceived norms, reducing the seriousness of transgression when compared with drink-driving. Young drivers rationalized their own use by comparing their selfregulatory smartphone and driving skills with those of “bad drivers,” not law abiders. Practical Applications: These findings suggest that smartphone behaviors shape attitudes to risk, highlighting the importance for any countermeasure aimed at reducing illegal use to acknowledge how a young person’s continued engagement in illegal smartphone use is justified by the dynamic composition of use, risk assessment and the perceived norms.     

矿山井巷模型快速构建与突水避灾三维动态仿真

为准确规划人员最优避灾路径,以矿井现场实测数据为基础,联合Python与Blender快速生成矿山三维井巷模型,建立基于时空动态性的突水漫延仿真平台;综合考虑不同因素对巷道通行状况的影响,建立一种支持从源节点至多目标节点的前N条最优避灾路径搜索方法;调用Blender时间线功能,建立人员避灾逃生演示模型;以山东某矿为工程背景,开展矿井突水与人员最优路径避灾仿真模拟。结果表明:基于Python与Blender联合开发的矿井突水应急避灾仿真平台,可实现矿山井巷系统几何模型的快速构建;可真实模拟不同突水状态下水流漫延过程,为受灾人员规划出前N条最佳避灾路径,并可结合实时水情及时优化最佳避灾路径。     

障碍物对隧道火灾中竖井自然排烟效果的影响*

为研究障碍物对隧道火灾中竖井自然排烟效果的影响,利用数值模拟方法分析不同的纵向风速和隧道内障碍物所处的不同位置对隧道及竖井内温度场、流场结构的影响,并根据模拟结果计算竖井排出热量。结果表明:随着火源与障碍物纵向距离的改变,在近火源区域,竖井后方会发生吸穿现象;在中间区域,障碍物后方发生边界层分离,烟气层变厚;在近竖井区域,竖井和负压区的耦合作用使烟气层变薄;排出热量随着纵向风速的增大先增加后减少,临界风速为1.5 m/s。     

抽出式通风机数量对地铁区间隧道通风排烟能力影响的实验研究*

为量化抽出式通风机及其数量对排烟道与行车道内流量分配的影响,提出1个新的量化指标——通风排烟系统性能系数,即为抽出式与压入式通风机组合功耗与排烟体积流量的比值。为确立通风排烟系统性能系数,依托某过海区间隧道,搭建隧道通风排烟模型实验系统,测定排烟道与行车道所构成的风道内流动参数。结果表明:以吊顶排烟口为镜像面,行车道静压对称分布;对于行车道速度而言,双压二抽表现为对称分布,双压一抽为近对称,双压零抽为偏置分布;偏置分布的排烟道速度出现在双压一抽中,近对称属于双压零抽,对称显现于双压二抽。将数据进行分析计算后可知,性能系数最低的是双压零抽两通风机组合。