资源性供给紧约束条件下的消费理论研究述评

通过对国内外关于资源性供给紧约束条件下的消费理论研究的文献回顾,认为在资源环境问题日益严峻的现代社会,深入分析和探寻人与自然和谐共处的居民消费行为,客观上要求我国必须从伦理学、社会学、生态学和法学等多学科领域进行探讨和研究,而不能仅局限于经济学学科研究领域。加快构建生态文明型消费模式,不仅是目前消费理论创新研究的重要方向,而且也是我国贯彻落实科学发展观,实现人口消费与社会、经济、资源和环境全面协调可持续发展的必然选择。     

环境污染源监测中的警示性分析

利用概率论有关知识,对污染源监测数据进行处理、分析、建立数字模型。依该模型可即时捕捉发生环境污染的警示性信号。     

突变理论在环境预测中的应用

以某市七年来环境治理投资状况为序列建立多项式预测模型 ,尽管其拟合精度较高 ,但其预测结果偏离现实情况较大 ,通过突变理论分析知其原因在于有突变因素存在之故     

基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价

针对隧道围岩稳定性评价的模糊性和主观影响问题，建立基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价模型。该模型采用岩石单轴抗压强度、岩体质量指标、完整性系数、体积节理数、声波纵波波速值、地下水渗水量作为隧道围岩稳定性评价指标，运用关联函数法、熵权法和改进层次分析法单独计算各个指标的权系数，利用博弈论组合赋权确定所得3个权系数的最优组合权系数，以此计算出待评隧道围岩关于各稳定性等级的加权关联度，根据计算结果判定待评隧道围岩稳定性等级。实例计算表明:运用博弈-可拓理论评价隧道围岩稳定性等级，综合了主客观因素，使评价结果更为合理可靠，为隧道风险控制与安全管理提供了新的依据。     

质性视角下港珠澳大桥HSE管理实施模型的构建与阐释*

为构建出港珠澳大桥HSE管理实施框架模型，以港珠澳大桥为例，运用扎根理论质性研究方法，针对已收集的数据资料进行归纳、编码及提取，从领导、人文、制度、责任、组织、行为、过程及措施等方面，凝练出港珠澳大桥HSE管理的12个基本概念范畴，系统描绘港珠澳大桥HSE管理的行为现象、作用关系及路径。结果表明:智慧引领、意念灌注、组织管理、过程控制及举措保障这5个主范畴对港珠澳大桥HSE管理实施具有显著影响，分别凝练成牵引、驱动、组织、执行及保障5大作用力，汇聚演绎出港珠澳大桥HSE管理的7条实践路径，从情境维、范式维、组织维、过程维及措施维5个维度，全面确保HSE管理的顺畅实施。     

Framing the search for a theory of land use

ABSTRACT

Land system science and affiliated research linked to sustainability require improved understanding and theorization of land and its change as a social-ecological system (SES). The absence of a general land-use theory, anchored in the social subsystem but with explicit links to the environmental subsystem, hampers this effort. Drawing on land-use explanations, meta-analyses, and associated frameworks, we advance a broad framework structure of eight elements – aggregations of explanatory variables – with links to the biophysical subsystem, for systematic comparisons of extant explanations. Tests and models can be employed to identify which set of variables and their configurations provide robust explanations of across land uses, identifying the potential for theory development. The framework and its application are applicable to both top-down and bottom-up explanatory approaches employed in the social sciences. Links to the environmental subsystem invite future exploration of SES explanations that reach across the different dimensions of global change and sustainability science.     

An urban pipeline accident model based on system engineering and game theory

Urban pipeline accidents are caused by complex social-technical factors, in which urban communities and pipeline systems are involved. Such accidents can thus be investigated from the viewpoint of system engineering. System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) is a systemic method for safety assessment, which has been adopted in many domains. This approach can provide deep insights of accident causes by considering direct and indirect factors. Meanwhile, competition and cooperation between stakeholders in accidents are observed. Therefore, these parties can also be analyzed with the game theory. That is, stakeholders in STAMP can be regarded as players in game. The aim of this paper is to provide a new insight to analyze urban pipeline accidents by considering both STAMP and game theory. In this paper, we proposed an accident model for urban pipelines, with a case study of China-Qingdao pipeline accident occurred in 2013. We concluded that accident reasons can be investigated in-depth and lessons can be learned from analyzing causal factors by using STAMP. Based on results generated from STAMP, we applied the game theory to analyze roles that government and companies act in the China-Qingdao urban pipeline accident. The results show that current punishment and incentive systems are incomplete, lacking of the driving force and constraining force for the stakeholders involved in the accident.     

基于扎根理论的瓦斯爆炸风险累积效应研究*

为研究瓦斯爆炸风险在事故发展中的累积过程，揭示瓦斯爆炸事故的风险累积机理，引入累积效应的研究思想。首先界定风险累积概念，分析风险累积过程；然后运用案例研究、专家调查等方法分析瓦斯爆炸风险累积的累积源、途径，并应用扎根理论方法提取风险类型并研究风险累积过程；在此基础上，运用系统动力学软件绘制瓦斯爆炸风险累积路径图，将风险的累积过程可视化。研究表明:瓦斯爆炸风险存在累积过程，主要通过加和累积和放大累积方式累积，累积时间越长，越易引发新风险，其中管理风险累积影响人、物、环的状态，而人、物、环风险累积过程直接影响瓦斯爆炸事故发生进程。研究结果为瓦斯爆炸事故原因分析提供1种新方法，对煤矿企业的事故预防和风险管控具有一定指导和参考意义。     

委托代理理论视角下特种设备安全监管改进研究

针对特种设备数量和种类不断增多与安全监管力量不足问题,首先阐述特种设备安全监管内涵,分析其涉及的委托代理关系;然后基于委托代理理论构建特种设备安全监管委托代理数学模型,并利用激励相容约束条件讨论监管力度、安全投入、公众信任度等因素对特种设备安全监管效果的影响及内在机制;最后提出进一步提高特种设备安全水平的改进策略.结果...