Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

黄河流域水资源价值的计算与分析

利用经济杠杆的调节作用促使水资源的高效利用，是缓和水资源供需矛盾的有效措施之一。本文以水资源价值理论为基础，从黄河全流域水资源优化配置角度出发，以利用水资源获得最大经济效益为目标，测算了黄河水资源的理论价值，为制定黄河水资源费的征收标准提供科学的理论依据。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

基于三阶段DEA与Malmquist指数分解的长江经济带水资源利用效率研究

长江经济带水资源的合理有效使用为经济的可持续发展提供了重要保障。以长江经济带11省市为研究对象,运用三阶段DEA模型和Malmquist对2010~2014年11省市水资源的利用效率进行了静态和动态分析。研究结果表明:在剔除了外部环境因素和随机误差因素以后,纯技术效率均值和综合技术效率均值被低估,规模效率均值被高估,投入规模不足是扼制我国水资源利用效率提升的瓶颈。同时,东中西部省份的水资源利用效率差异显著,呈现"东部中部西部"的格局。通过对Malmquist指数分解可知,全要素生产率指数与技术变化值的演变趋势基本一致,反映了全要素生产率指数对技术变化的严重依赖。因此,扩大生产规模,加大科技投入和知识创新,优化和升级产业结构是提高水资源利用效率的重要途径。     

基于电絮凝法处理矿区高浓度含氟地下水动力学分析

采用铝电极电絮凝体系对矿区高含氟地下水进行处理,研究了高氟浓度下电絮凝除氟过程,分别考察了电流密度、极板间距、进水氟质量浓度及pH对除氟效果和动力学常数的影响,并建立了电絮凝除氟动力学方程模型。结果表明：最佳除氟参数为电流密度为450 A·m⁻³,极间距为5 mm,pH为6.0~7.0;当进水氟质量浓度为12.1 mg·L⁻¹时,经60 min电絮凝除氟后可使进水氟质量浓度由12.1 mg·L⁻¹降为0.6 mg·L⁻¹以下,整个除氟过程遵循一级反应动力学模型且除氟动力学常数取决于电流密度、极板间距和进水氟质量浓度。絮体结构与成分分析表明,在pH=6.0~7.0条件下,电絮凝体系中主要形成的无定型羟基铝化合物使除氟效果达到最好,较高的进水氟质量浓度有助于提高铝离子利用效率。     

Semi-analytical solution of two-dimensional sharp interface LNAPL transport models

In this paper, we present semi-analytical solutions for two-dimensional equations governing transport of Light Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (LNAPL) in unconfined aquifers. The proposed model is based on sharp interface displacement and steady groundwater flow assumptions, where both the water–LNAPL interface and the LNAPL–air interface are represented as sharp interfaces. In the case of steady groundwater flow, these equations can be reduced to a two-dimensional nonlinear solute transport equation, with the LNAPL thickness in the free product lens being the primary unknown variable. The linearized form of this solute transport equation falls into the category of two-dimensional transport equation with time-dependent dispersion coefficients. This equation can be solved analytically for an infinite domain region. In this paper, the general form of the analytical solution for the transport equation, as well as the solutions for some specific cases are presented. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed solution, numerical results obtained for two example problems are discussed and presented comparatively with a finite-element solution and other more restrictive solutions available in the literature. Although the solutions discussed in this paper have some simplifying assumptions, such as sharp-interfaces between fluid phases, steady groundwater flow and homogeneous aquifer properties, the semi-analytical solutions presented in this study may be used effectively as bench mark solutions in evaluating LNAPL migration in the subsurface. These solutions are simple and cost effective to implement and may be used in the calibration of other more complex numerical solutions that can be found in the literature.     

水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究进展

水文因素为农田氮磷元素的迁移提供了动力和载体,对稻田氮磷元素的流失具有重要影响。利用新型的稻田水分管理模式以代替传统的水分管理模式,对于有效控制面源污染具有重要意义。在综合调研国内外已有研究成果和最新进展的基础上,阐述了稻田氮磷流失特征、传统水分管理模式的弊端,并从新型稻田水分管理模式的种类、削减氮磷流失的效果与机理、与水平衡模型、营养负荷模型等结合应用等几个方面综述了国内外水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究现状。进行稻田土壤吸附氮磷容量及人工调节机制的研究,在部分地区开展流域化水分管理系统研究,以及适用于我国稻田的水平衡模型和营养负荷模型的建立和深入研究应为今后我国关于水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失方面研究的一些方向。     

Understanding the role of nano-TiO2 on the toxicity of Pb on C. dubia through modeling–Is it additive or synergistic?

• A two-compartment model is able to quantify the effect of nano-TiO₂ on Pb toxicity. • Nano-TiO₂ reduces Pb tolerance level and increased the killing rate for C. dubia. • Thus, nano-TiO₂ synergistically enhances Pb toxicity. • Algae reduce Pb transfer rate to the body tissue and the killing rate. Nano-TiO₂ can remarkably increase lead (Pb) toxicity in aquatic organisms. However, the mechanism of this toxicity, additive or synergistic, is not well understood. To explore this mechanism, we inspected the role of nano-TiO₂ in the toxicity of Pb on Ceriodaphnia dubia (C. dubia), a model water flea species typically used for ecotoxicity studies. The effect of algae, a diet for aquatic organisms, on the effect of this binary mixture was also investigated. A two-compartment toxicokinetic (TK)-toxicodynamic (TD) modeling approach was used to quantify the Pb toxicity under these complex conditions and to develop critical parameters for understanding the mechanism of toxicity. This two-compartment modeling approach adequately described the Pb accumulation in the gut and in the rest of the body tissue under different nano-TiO₂ concentrations, with and without algae, and predicted the toxicity response of C. dubia. It indicated that increasing the nano-TiO₂ concentration reduced the Pb tolerance level and concurrently increased the killing rate constant of C. dubia. Therefore, nano-TiO₂ synergistically enhanced Pb toxicity. Algae remarkably reduced the toxicity of this binary mixture through reducing the Pb transfer rate to the body tissue and the killing rate, although it did not affect the Pb tolerance level. This two-compartment modeling approach is useful in understanding the role of nanoparticles when assessing the overall toxicity of nanoparticles and other toxic elements in the environment.     

岳阳市城市绿化树种的选择及配置模式研究

选择观赏价值高、抗逆性强、保健功能强、经济效益高同时具有丰富历史文化底蕴和地方特色的植物材料用于城市林业建设中,可显著提高城市园林绿化的科技含量和综合效益;在园林植物配置上,根据园林美学原则和功能性要求,进行混植、群植、丛植、对植和孤植等,在充分发挥树木的群体美和个体美的同时可显著提高配置模式的整体功能性．     

我国旱涝空间型的马尔科夫概型分析

旱涝灾害在我国是影响最大、也最为频繁的气候灾害。本文利用马尔科夫概型分析的原理和方法，在验证了我国旱涝空间型序列具有马尔科夫性质的基础上，计算出各状态的转移概率，进而分析了旱涝空间型序列的静态和动态结构，并揭示出旱涝空间型各状态演化的优势倾向。