武都碾压混凝土重力坝抗震分析与安全评价

武都水库是四川省江油市境内的涪江干流上的大(1)型水利工程。汶川8级地震中,武都水库工程紧邻震中区附近,并正处于施工高峰期,大地震对武都水库工程已建和在建的40多个项目均有不同程度的损坏。分别采用水工建筑物抗震设计规范给定的地震动参数值和地震后复核确定的地震动参数值,对武都大坝进行抗震分析与安全性评价。计算表明,当设计设防加速度256cm/s2时,按规范规定的悬臂梁法进行抗震计算时,均满足现行抗震规范的要求。按平面有限元计算时局部拉应力超出规范的允许值,建议挡水坝段下游坝面折坡附近以及溢流坝段在导墙与边墩交接处附近提高混凝土的强度等级。鉴于坝踵、坝址部位局部范围内仍有较大水平的拉应力,建议自建基面的一定高度内应确保混凝土的浇筑质量,以确保大坝的抗震强度安全。     

基于指标规范值的地表水水质的模糊综合评价

传统的模糊综合评价法用于地表水水质评价,当指标数较多时需要设计很多隶属函数,设计和计算工作量皆很大,实际使用不便。在设定指标参照值和规范变换式基础上,将指标按各级标准规范值相近程度进行适当分类,只需分类设计隶属函数即可,大幅减少了计算工作量,使模糊综合评价法应用于地表水水质评价变得简化。     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry

Near misses are well-known for providing a major source of useful information for safety management. They are more frequent events than accidents and their causes may potentially result in an accident under slightly different circumstances. Despite the importance of this type of feedback, there is little knowledge on the characteristics of near misses, and on the use of this information in safety management. This article proposes guidelines for identifying, analyzing and disseminating information on near misses in construction sites. In particular, it is proposed that near misses be analyzed based on four categories: (a) whether or not it was possible to track down the event; (b) the nature of each event, in terms of its physical features (e.g. falling objects); (c) whether they provided positive or negative feedback for the safety management system; and (d) risk, based on the probability and severity associated with each event. The guidelines were devised and tested while a safety management system was being developed in a healthcare building project. The monitoring of near misses was part of a safety performance measurement system. Among the main results, a dramatic increase in both the number and quality of reports stands out after the workforce was systematically encouraged to report. While in the first 4 months of the study – when the workforce was not encouraged to report – there were just 12 reports, during the subsequent 4 months – when the workforce was so encouraged – there were 110 reports, all of them being analyzed based on the four analytical categories proposed.     

网络环境下重要信息系统安全体系结构的研究

在阐述信息系统安全、信息系统安全体系结构的基本概念后,主要介绍信息系统安全研究内容,并对目前主流的几类安全体系结构进行对比分析;着重分析重要信息系统的特点和基于可信计算的终端安全体系结构优缺点,并在此基础上提出可信计算与安全机制相结合的方案,同时给出信息安全评估系统的安全体系结构的设计思路,为网络环境下重要信息系统的安全架构提供了一些新的思路。     

安全绩效研究综述

为探明安全绩效的研究方向,加强对安全绩效基础研究,从而为加强企业安全管理工作提供理论保障。从安全绩效的定义和范畴、安全绩效的评估、安全绩效影响因素的实证研究、安全绩效的提升等方面对国内外安全绩效相关研究进行论述和分析。提出以企业组织安全行为与员工安全行为作为研究的切入点;采用定性与定量相结合的方法;研究的重点应为更加注重过程的控制,注重安全行为的引导和安全文化的建设。     

埋地油罐事故伤害范围模拟评价

分析埋地油罐可能发生的火灾爆炸事故,建立事故模拟模型,模拟爆炸物质完全燃烧的质量依据化学计量浓度确定,事故伤害范围的计算用G.M莱克霍夫在砂质土壤中爆炸的冲击波计算方法。对50 m3埋地油罐模拟,油蒸气形成爆炸性混合气体爆炸伤害范围较大,安全范围与《汽车加油加气站设计与施工规范》中相关规定相符合。模拟方法用于埋地储罐的定量安全评价,为罐区选址、建设、安全距离确定及安全预案制定提供参考。     

紧急救援系统可靠性评价指标及评价方法研究

基于人机工效学的原理,分析高速公路紧急救援系统的结构组成和特点,从事件检测、救援方案及设备管理3个方面建立紧急救援系统可靠性的评价指标体系,通过理论分析和专家咨询,确定各影响因素的重要度,运用层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的方法,对紧急救援系统的可靠性进行评价。采用该方法对陕西省某高速公路紧急救援系统的可靠性进行评价,得到综合评价值为77.96,与实际状况相符,表明该方法可行。     

基于心态指标的煤矿瓦斯爆炸区间数模糊评价

为了评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的安全性,根据瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立了评价体系。然后采用一种新的区间数模糊评价方法,建立数学模型。传统的区间数模糊评价方法是根据最大隶属度原则判断该对象的优劣,不能进行多个对象之间的评价。该方法综合考虑了最大隶属度和评语集,提出区间数的内积公式,进而得到每个对象的综合分数,通过比较其大小进行多个对象之间的评价。考虑到决策者不同心态时对决策方案的影响,引入心态指标,通过调节心态指标来比较综合分数,从而得出煤矿之间的安全性大小。最后,将该方法应用到3所煤矿,运用基于中点值的区间数排序方法对综合评判向量进行分析,所得结果与该方法的结果基本一致,从而验证该方法的正确性。     

基于模糊综合评价的城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性研究

针对第三方破坏事故具有多样性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,建立城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性评价模型。辨识出包括社会环境与公共关系、管道敷设状况、破坏与防控、管理与误操作以及自然环境等5类一级因素和19个二级因素,通过改进的层次分析法确定各级影响因素的权重,并运用多层次模糊综合评价法得出管道第三方破坏失效可能性的大小。以成都市某燃气管道为例进行验证分析,按照最大隶属度原则对评价结果进行处理。