Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate

This research examines whether a long-run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between economic activity and the consumption of crude steel within the UK. Using the theory of fractionally integrated and cointegrated processes, and allowing for the possibility that the equilibrium path changes abruptly at occasional points in time, it is possible to determine if steel consumption and economic activity follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two series randomly drift apart over time. Evidence is found to support such a long term relationship. This result is at odds with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers in the area. The reason for this difference may be due to these researchers concentrating only on I(0) and I(1) specifications, without consideration of fractional possibilities and also to a failure to account for structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. Such conclusions are made within the framework of the ARFIMA methodology that yields reliable inferences on the degree of fractional integration and cointegration. Critical values for fractional contegration with an ARFIMA model in the presence of structural breaks are also derived in this paper.     

An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection

Cut-off grade strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economical, and environmental issues in relation to the exploitation of a mineral resource. Despite the simple definition of cut-off grade, the COGS problem is one of the complex and complicated problems in the mine planning process. From the optimization point of view, the COGS with an objective of maximizing the present value of future cash flows is a non-linear and a non-convex problem that even in its deterministic form can be solved using approximate optimization methods. This optimization problem will also be more complex and complicated under uncertainty conditions. This paper proposes an uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system to investigate the problem of COGS selection considering metal price and geological uncertainties. The proposed system aims at selection of the best COGS among technically feasible alternative COGSs under uncertainty circumstances. Our developed system is based on integrating metal price and geological uncertainties as well as operating flexibility to close the mine early. We incorporate this operating flexibility into the proposed system using a Monte Carlo based real options (RO) valuation model. For this purpose, in addition to the expected value, other risk criteria are considered to rank the alternatives. These risk criteria include abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses, and achieving the predefined goals of the production. In this study, the technically possible COGSs are generated using the Lane comprehensive algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we utilize data of an Iranian gold mine. Results show that the proposed system outperforms conventional methods in the sense that it shows significantly lower average mis-ranking than the other methods and also selects a strategy with a higher value. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed system relative to the gold price shows that the system is highly dependent on the parameters of the stochastic process used to model the evolution of the metal price. Therefore, special consideration should be given in estimating stochastic process parameters.     

Studies of the effects of temperatures and solar radiation on volatilization,mineralization and binding of 14c‐DDT in soil under laboratory conditions

Abstract

The effects of temperatures and solar radiation on the dissipation of ¹⁴C‐p,p'‐DDT from a loam soil was studied by quantifying volatilization, mineralization and binding. The major DDT loss occurred by volatilization, which was 1.8 times more at 45^oC than at ambient temperature (30°C). Mineralization of DDT slowly increased with time but it decreased slightly with increase in temperature. Binding of DDT to soil was found to be less at higher temperatures (35 and 45°C) as compared to ambient temperature. Degradation of DDT to DDE was faster at higher temperatures.

Exposure of non‐sterilized and sterilized soils treated with ¹⁴C‐DDT to sunlight in quartz and dark tubes for 6 weeks resulted in significant losses. Volatilization and mineralization in quartz tubes were more as compared to dark tubes. The volatilized organics from the quartz tubes contained larger amounts of p,p'‐DDE than the dark tubes. Further, higher rates of volatilization were found in non‐sterilized soils than in sterilized soils. The results suggest that faster dissipation of DDT from soil under local conditions relates predominantly to increased volatilization as influenced by high temperature and intense solar radiation.     

公路桥面伸缩装置及其对桥梁静动力性能影响综述∗

桥梁伸缩装置(以下简称伸缩缝)使用环境恶劣、受荷形式复杂,易出现多种病害。伸缩缝病害会造成桥梁耐久性降低,车致桥梁动力响应加重等不利现象。因此,伸缩缝病害机理及其处置方法和考虑伸缩缝参数影响的车-桥耦合动力响应规律研究受到了广泛关注。本文综述了桥梁伸缩缝力学性能,常见病害及其影响,病害机理及其处置方法等的发展现状;重点讨论了考虑伸缩缝参数及其变化影响的桥梁动力响应的研究进展及存在的问题;展望了未来桥梁伸缩缝研究中有待解决的关键问题。     

差压式流量计误差产生机理分析及改进

通过对管内流体流动机理的分析 ,指出目前普遍使用的差压式流量计误差产生的原因 ,并对流量计的改进进行构思及对改进途径作了探讨。     

粒状活性炭处理水样并采用紫外分光光度法快速测定水中的硝酸盐氮

介绍一种通过用粒状活性炭处理水样并采用紫外分光光度法快速测定水中硝酸盐氮的方法,用粒状活性炭处理水样以消除干扰,使水中硝酸盐氮得到了快速而又准确的测定。     

清代北京地区瘟疫流行的社会影响及政府应对

清代北京地区瘟疫反复流行,不仅导致人口大量死亡,还对政治制度、经济发展、城市建设、民众信仰产生重大影响.瘟疫流行期间,清政府拨付专款,设局施药施棺进行直接救治.同时,还注意安置解决来京流民饥民问题,对控制疫情的蔓延起了重要的作用.此外,基于传统天象示警的观念,统治者还通过重清理刑狱和征求直言的方式挽回天意,达到消除瘟疫...     

Comparative studies of the fate of atrazine‐14C and pentachlorophenol‐14C in various laboratory and outdoor soil‐plant systems

Abstract

Mass balance and fate of atrazine‐ ¹⁴C and pentachlorophenol‐ ¹⁴C (PCP‐ ¹⁴C) were studied in short‐term tests in a closed aerated laboratory soil‐plant system, using two concentrations in soil and two plant species, as well as under outdoor conditions for one vegetation period. In the laboratory, for both pesticides bioaccu‐mulation factors of radiocarbon taken up by the roots into plants were low. They were higher for lower (1 ppm) than for higher soil concentrations (6 ppm for atra‐zine, 4 ppm for pentachlorophenol) and varied with the plant species. Mineralization to ¹⁴CO₂ in soil was negatively related to soil concentration only for PCP‐ ¹⁴C. Conversion rates in soil including the formation of soil‐bound residues were higher for the lower concentrations of both pesticides than for the higher ones; conversion rates in plants were species‐dependent. In 14 terms of CO₂ formation and of conversion rates, PCP was less persistent in soil than was atrazine. For both pesticides, laboratory data on conversion and mineralization gave a rough prediction of their persistence in soil under long‐term outdoor conditions, whereas bio‐accumulation factors in plants under long‐term outdoor conditions could not be predicted by short‐term laboratory experiments.     

Degradation of fenamiphos in soils collected from different geographical regions: The influence of soil properties and climatic conditions

The persistence of fenamiphos (nematicide) in five soils collected from different geographical regions such as Australia, Ecuador and India under three temperature regimes (18, 25 and 37°C) simulating typical environmental conditions was studied. The effect of soil properties (soil pH, temperature and microbial biomass) on the degradation of fenamiphos was determined. The rate of degradation increased with increase in temperature. Fenamiphos degradation was higher at 37°C than at 25 and 18°C (except under alkaline pH). The degradation pathway differed in different soils. Fenamiphos sulfoxide (FSO) was identified as the major degradation product in all the soils. Fenamiphos sulfone (FSO₂), and the corresponding phenols: fenamiphos phenol (FP), fenamiphos sulfoxide phenol (FSOP) and fenamiphos sulfone phenol (FSO₂P) were also detected. The degradation of fenamiphos was faster in the alkaline soils, followed by neutral and acidic soils. Under sterile conditions, the dissipation of the pesticide was slower than in the non-sterile soils suggesting microbial role in the pesticide degradation. The generation of new knowledge on fenamiphos degradation patterns under different environmental conditions is important to achieve better pesticide risk management.