幕景分析法在累积影响评价中的实例应用研究

探讨了幕景分析方法在累积影响评谷中的应用途径，并将基于水质模型的幕景分析方法应用于水库投饵网箱养鱼项目，评价了累积影响的重大性，提出了相应的累积影响消减措施，其影响分析和评价结论对今后投饵网箱养鱼的环境管理具有重要价值，对建设项目EIA中增加累积影响 评价的内容提出建议。     

Catchment–coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment–coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios

The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

苏州河水系水动力模型建立及应用

应用MIKE11模型系统建立了以苏州河以及其支流为重点的全市感潮河网水动力数学模型。模型在天然河网的基础上，以骨干河道为基础，进行合理的河道和湖泊概化，并将上海市河网水系划分为14个水利片，分片考虑区域降雨径流对河网水量的影响。模型可应用于水系水量调度分析及非点源污染分析，并对对苏州河沿岸泵站雨天溢流进行模拟计算。结果表明，建立的苏州河水系水动力模型可为苏州河整治工程提供科学决策工具。