梯级开发对河流径流过程和水温过程均化作用的研究

长江中上游干流及主要支流正在大规模地进行水电开发,随着这些梯级水库群的建设,自然河流中具有重要生态意义的流量过程和水热过程发生变化,导致流量和水温均化,引起了一些河流生态环境问题。根据现有资料统计,结合金沙江下游正在建设的溪洛渡和向家坝水电站,对比分析了梯级水电工程径流调节后与天然过程的差异程度,探讨了河流径流过程和水温过程均化现象对生境的影响。将均化系数λ引入,定量计算了水库调节对天然径流的均化作用;采用宽度平均的立面二维k-ε水温模型,初步分析了梯级水电工程对水温过程均化作用。最后提出减小梯级水库对长江生态环境影响的对策和建议.     

江西柘林水库集水区近50年气候干湿状况研究

柘林水库的面积和库容较大,但集水区面积相对较小,水资源亏缺是其主要制约因子,研究近50 a来水库集水区的气候干湿状况和变化趋势,对于水库的运行调度、效益发挥以及制定科学的投资计划具有很好的参考价值。基于江西柘林水库集水区内3个常规气象站1958～2007年的逐日降水、气温等要素观测资料,计算不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI指数）,以衡量集水区干湿情况;用FAO Penman Monteith 方法计算参考蒸散量;以年降水量与年参考蒸散量的差值近似代表最大径流深度。采用线性趋势拟合、滑动平均等分析方法,对水库集水区的旱涝、参考蒸散量、最大径流深度等的时间分布状况、季节变化、变化趋势等进行了分析。研究结果表明：（1）柘林水库集水区1998年以来年降水量呈明显下降趋势,而年参考蒸散量呈上升趋势,导致年最大径流深度下降明显,水库水资源不足;（2）近50 a柘林水库集水区的降水集中度呈增加趋势,强降水对总降水量的贡献增大,旱涝发生风险均增加;（3）近50 a柘林水库集水区旱涝互现、旱重于涝     

CE-QUAL-W2在紫坪铺水库的应用及其参数敏感性分析

采用宽度平均立面二维水动力模型CE QUAL W2,对紫坪铺水库水温结构进行了数值模拟,运用库区实测资料进行了模型的参数率定及验证。库区及下泄水温的计算值与实测值吻合良好,显示模型能较好地模拟库区垂向水温分层的形成发展过程,以及升温期电站下泄水温变化,证实该模型对紫坪铺水库的水温模拟是适用的,也可为同类型水库提供参考。经参数灵敏度分析,发现水温模拟对模型中的风遮蔽系数与动态光遮蔽系数最为敏感,其余参数影响不明显,可取模型默认值。其中风遮蔽系数增大,风速加大,水库表层温度降低,水库垂向混合作用增强,温跃层下移,水温分层明显减弱,库底水温明显提升;动态光遮蔽系数增大,入射的太阳辐射增强,水库上层40 m水体温度升高,中下层水体温度无明显变化     

清江流域水布垭水库二氧化碳大气廓线空间分布及其水环境效应

为了研究水库水体二氧化碳源汇变化时空分布格局及其影响因素,选择清江流域水布垭水库为典型示范案例,在2010年5月8日到9日开展了二氧化碳观测实验,获取了水库上空大气二氧化碳浓度垂直变化以及沿水库中心线二氧化碳浓度的变化特征。然后基于地理信息系统空间分析技术对观测点二氧化碳浓度数据进行空间插值计算,得到整个水库水体的空间分布特征,并与水环境因子空间分布情况进行比较分析。研究结果表明：水布垭水库上空大气二氧化碳浓度在05 m高度以下最高,然后向上依次降低,其空间分布从水库上游到坝前呈现增加的趋势。同时水库水体二氧化碳浓度变化受到表层水温、叶绿素浓度等水环境重要因素的影响,与水温和气温呈负相关关系,而与叶绿素呈正相关关系     

门楼水库总氮环境容量计算及其总量控制方案研究

文中分析了门楼水库的总氮污染状况,提出了门楼水库总氮环境容量的计算原则、设计水文条件和水质保护目标,为改善市区居民的饮用水质量,保障市民的身体健康,制定合理的污染控制方案,提供了科学的参考依据。     

长江三峡水库诱发地震问题的分析研究

三峡水库是长江干流上一个巨型水利工程,拟定坝高１８５ｍ,正常蓄水位１７５ｍ,防洪库容２２１．５０亿ｍ＾３。三峡工程涉及的地质问题很多,水库诱发地震是其中主要要研究的几个问题之一。本文按三峡库萄 地质条件,将三峡库区分为三个库段进行讨论并采用灰色系统理论聚类分析的方法,对其诱发地震的强度进行了预测,认为三峡水库诱发地震的最危险库段的庙河－奉节段,其强度可达５．０￣６．０级。     

PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

RIVERWARE: A GENERALIZED TOOL FOR COMPLEX RESERVOIR SYSTEM MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Water management agencies seek the next generation of modeling tools for planning and operating river basins. Previous site‐specific models such as U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System and Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Daily Scheduling Model have become obsolete; however, new models are difficult and expensive to develop and maintain. Previous generalized river basin modeling tools are limited in their ability to represent diverse physical system and operating policy details for a wide range of applications. RiverWare(tm), a new generalized river basin modeling tool, provides a construction kit for developing and running detailed, site‐specific models without the need to develop or maintain the supporting software within the water management agency. It includes an extensible library of modeling algorithms, several solvers, and a rich “language” for the expression of operating policy. Its point‐and‐click graphical interface facilitates model construction and execution, and communication of policies, assumptions and results to others. Applications developed and used by the TVA and the USBR demonstrate that a wide range of operational and planning problems on widely varying basins can be solved using this tool.     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF RESERVOIR RELEASES TO MINIMIZE SEDIMENTATION IN RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: An optimal control methodology and computational model are developed to evaluate multi‐reservoir release schedules that minimize sediment scour and deposition in rivers and reservoirs. The sedimentation problem is formulated within a discrete‐time optimal control framework in which reservoir releases represent control variables and reservoir bed elevations, storage levels, and river bed elevations represent state variables. Constraints imposed on reservoir storage levels and releases are accommodated using a penalty function method. The optimal control model consists of two interfaced components: a one‐dimensional finite‐difference simulation module used to evaluate flow hydraulics and sediment transport dynamics, and a successive approximation linear quadratic regulator (SALQR) optimization algorithm used to update reservoir release policies and solve the augmented control problem. Hypothetical two‐reservoir and five‐reservoir networks are used to demonstrate the methodology and its capabilities, which is a vital phase towards the development of a more robust optimal control model and application to an existing multiple‐reservoir river network.