不完备信息条件下流域环境系统规划方法研究

开发了一套新的流域环境系统规划方法，该方法将不确定性模型多目标规划模型与系统动力学模型有机地集成在一起，构成一个完整的体系，ＩＦＭＯＰ充分考虑到了流域环境规划所面临的信息不完备问题，将不确定性信息直接引入优化过程。从而得到以区间数表示的不确定性优化解。     

Basic principles and ecological consequences of changing water regimes on nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems

Understanding the environmental consequences of changing water regimes is a daunting challenge for both resource managers and ecologists. Balancing human demands for fresh water with the needs of the environment for water in appropriate amounts and at the appropriate times are shaping the ways by which this natural resource will be used in the future. Based on past decisions that have rendered many freshwater resources unsuitable for use, we argue that river systems have a fundamental need for appropriate amounts and timing of water to maintain their biophysical integrity. Biophysical integrity is fundamental for the formulation of future sustainable management strategies. This article addresses three basic ecological principles driving the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen in river systems. These are (1) how the mode of nitrogen delivery affects river ecosystem functioning, (2) how increasing contact between water and soil or sediment increases nitrogen retention and processing, and (3) the role of floods and droughts as important natural events that strongly influence pathways of nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems. New challenges related to the cumulative impact of water regime change, the scale of appraisal of these impacts, and the determination of the impacts due to natural and human changes are discussed. It is suggested that cost of long-term and long-distance cumulative impacts of hydrological changes should be evaluated against short-term economic benefits to determine the real environmental costs.     

Index models to evaluate the risk of phosphorus and nitrogen loss at catchment scales

This paper investigates index models as a tool to estimate the risk of N and P source strengths and loss at the catchment scale. The index models assist managers in improving the focus of remediation actions that reduce nutrient delivery to waterbodies. N and P source risk factors (e.g. soil nutrient concentrations) and transport risk factors (e.g. distance-to-streams) are used to determine the overall risk of nutrient loss for a case study in the Tuross River catchment of coastal southeast Australia. In the development of the N index model for Tuross, particulate N was considered important based on the observed event water quality data. In contrast to previous N index models, erosion and contributing distance were therefore included in the Tuross River catchment N index. Event-based water quality monitoring, and soil information, or in data-poor catchments conceptual understanding, are essential to represent catchment-scale processes. The techniques have high applicability in other catchments, and are complementary to other modelling techniques such as process-based semi-distributed modelling. Index models generally provide much more detailed spatial resolution than fully- or semi-distributed conceptual modelling approaches. Semi-distributed models can be used to quantify nutrient loads and provide overall direction to set the broad focus of management. Index models can then be used to refine on-the-ground investigations and investment priorities. In this way semi-distributed models can be combined with index models to provide a set of powerful tools to influence management decisions and outcomes.     

Water Quality in Drinking Water Reservoirs of a Megacity, Istanbul

Providing clean water at relevant quality and quantity is a challenge that regulatory authorities have to face in metropolitan cities that seem to develop at their limits of sustainability. Istanbul strives to face such a challenge for its population of over 10 million, through six surface water resources. Two approaches of classification for the reservoirs are presented, one based on current regulations and an alternative based on a more detailed classification. The results have shown that nutrient control is the primary issue, and one of the reservoirs has already exceeded the limits of being eutrophic, one is at mesotrophic conditions, and the remaining four are at the limit of being eutrophic, indicating the significance of making the correct decision and taking pertinent measures for management and control. It has been observed that the only mesotrophic resource, which also has the best general quality class, has no industry and a very low population density, whereas the one that is already eutrophic is also the one with the lowest quality class, has the highest population density, and has the greatest percentage of urban land use within its watershed.     

密云水库上游地区农田土壤有机碳储量及变化模拟

农田土壤有机碳(SOC)库对粮食安全和全球气候变化具有重要影响,因此,开展农田土壤有机碳储量及其动态变化研究在政治经济和生态环境层面具有重要意义.采用农业生物地球化学模型--DNDC对密云水库上游地区农田土壤有机碳储量及其变化进行模拟研究,首先应用当地实测结果进行模型验证,然后根据当地气候条件、土壤性质和现行农业耕作管理特点等建立GIS区域数据库,并在数据库的支持下进行区域模拟和分析.结果表明:2006年密云水库上游地区214 920 hm~2农田土壤(0～25 cm)的总有机碳储量为7 646×10~6 kg,其中位于河北省境内的该地区63.1%的农田储存了全区68.1%的SOC;平均每公顷农田SOC储量为35 576.1 kg,低于全国平均水平;由于化肥和有机肥投入的增加,经过1 a耕种后,2006年该地区农田SOC储量增加142.5×10~6 kg,整个地区及各区县农田土壤碳收支均为正,是大气CO_2的一个汇.情景分析表明,气温升高对该地区农田SOC积累具有显著的负效应;而提高秸秆还田比例、适量施用化肥、增施有机肥、增加灌溉和采取免耕方式等措施均能有效增加土壤有机碳的积累.     

上海市青浦区农业非点源污染的流域分配研究

根据遥感技术得到的土地利用类型、河网、道路、圩区等信息,结合地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析功能,建立了在多种空间因素影响下确定农业非点源污染负荷的流域分配方法。在此基础上,以上海市青浦区为例,得到了该区各河段中的污染负荷量．从而为寻求流域内合理的土地利用模式和农业非点源污染排放总量的控制方法提供决策依据。     

基于种植结构改进的SWAT模型模拟乌梁素海流域面源污染负荷

乌梁素海是黄河流域最大的湖泊湿地,其地处河套灌区,是灌区排水的承泄湖。多年来面临着严重的水生态系统功能退化、水环境污染等问题,而改善和治理湖泊水环境的基础是要厘清乌梁素海流域灌区退水导致的农业面源污染负荷问题。基于无人机获取的高分辨照片与遥感影像和地面实测数据相结合所获取的精准种植结构数据可作为SWAT模型输入的土地利用数据,以确保对农业面源污染迁移转化过程的模拟更接近真实情况。结果表明,基于作物种植结构数据对流域径流模拟精确度较高,率定期R²为0.74,NES为0.81,验证期R²为0.78,NES为0.67。TN和TP在2010—2020年间整体呈逐渐下降的趋势。季节分析发现,TN和TP均表现为春季负荷量较高。空间分布表明,乌梁素海流域总氮年均负荷量在南部的河套灌区较高,北部草原区较低,在流域东部番茄、瓜果、甜菜等经济作物集中分布的区域,TN负荷量为30~45 t·a⁻¹;总磷污染物负荷量的空间分布与总氮基本一致,主要分布在以玉米和葵花为主的子流域,TP年均总输出量均超过10 t·a⁻¹。本研究结果可为乌梁素海流域面源污染治理及种植结构调整提供参考。     

Census Peek: Collaboration in the New York City Catskill/Delaware Watershed: Case Study 1990–2000

Because watershed collaborations connect economic and environmental concerns, they are of interest to students of sustainable economic development. The economic outcomes of such collaborations are difficult to study because socio-economic data collection areas do not generally correspond to collaboration boundaries and also because of the simultaneity of economic stimuli and restrictions in collaborative arrangements. This case study of New York City’s Watershed Collaboration in its Catskill Delaware Watershed used a mapping program to create a database of Watershed residents from the 1990 and 2000 census. It provides a heretofore unavailable socioeconomic portrait of the Watershed and trends in indicators relevant to Collaboration effectiveness such as age, demographic pressures, and economic welfare. Through the use of national, state, regional and rural controls, the study also explores the impact of the agreement on the Watershed. Results do not provide evidence of a net negative impact and are consistent with a net positive impact. Several trends which work against agreement effectiveness are identified.     

不同土地利用/覆盖情景下东北沟流域植被生态需水量及其对产流影响

针对京津水源区上游生态环境建设需水与向下游多输水的矛盾现实,基于气象、土壤、土地利用/覆盖(1990年和2009年)数据,应用Penman-Monteith公式估算潜在蒸散量,再用土壤和植被信息对其进行修正,计算了水源区东北沟流域1990年、2009年及其他5种不同土地利用/覆盖情景下的最小生态需水量和适宜生态需水量。结果表明:2005-2009年4-10月潜在蒸散量是715.04 mm;2009年流域植被适宜生态需水量是399.42 mm,最小生态需水量是339.68 mm,比1990年的适宜和最小量分别多122.5 mm、144.5 mm;平水年的降雨均可满足各种情景生态需水要求,其中需水量较大的是情景Ⅲ(草地转化为林地),其适宜需水量达784.69×10⁴ m³,情景Ⅱ(林地转化为草地)的需水量最小,适宜需水量是687.27×10⁴ m³,该情景较适合向下游输水为目的的生态建设,但该情景实施的前提是建立下游向上游的生态补偿机制。     

Using Risk-Based Analysis and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Flooding Problems in an Urban Watershed in Rhode Island

This article provides an overview of the use of risk-based analysis (RBA) in flood damage assessment, and it illustrates the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood-prone areas, which can aid in flood-mitigation planning assistance. We use RBA to calculate expected annual flood damages in an urban watershed in the state of Rhode Island, USA. The method accounts for the uncertainty in the three primary relationships used in computing flood damage: (1) the probability that a given flood will produce a given amount of floodwater, (2) the probability that a given amount of floodwater will reach a certain stage or height, and (3) the probability that a certain stage of floodwater will produce a given amount of damage. A greater than 50% increase in expected annual flood damage is estimated for the future if previous development patterns continue and flood-mitigation measures are not taken. GIS is then used to create a map that shows where and how often floods might occur in the future, which can help (1) identify priority areas for flood-mitigation planning assistance and (2) disseminate information to public officials and other decision-makers.