国家生态文明建设试点示范区指标合理性探讨

环保部于2013年5月23日颁布的《国家生态文明建设试点示范区指标（试行）》（以下简称《指标（试行）》）已实施有9个月。到目前为止,全国已有6批生态文明建设试点地区参照《指标》要求确定生态文明建设目标,编制生态文明规划。然而,实际工作中发现指标体系中部分指标的合理性有待商榷。本文通过对问题指标进行分类探讨,将指标存在的问题分为四大类：指标定义亟待完善、指标标准设定偏高、指标数据获取性差和参考标准有待更新。根据不同类型指标问题的特点,分别对指标进行分析并提出合理的改进和解决方案,为环保部对《指标（试行）》的进一步完善和改进提供了理论依据和思路,对我国生态文明建设工作持续健康发展起到了促进作用。     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

太湖饮用水源地蓝藻水华预警监测体系的构建

从预警机制的建立与分工、预警监测时间的确定、预警监测的启动、预警信息的发布、预警监测的终止、预警监测的工作流程等方面,建立了太湖引用水源地蓝藻水华预警监测体系。指出了政府必须在资金、物资、人才、技术等方面给予预警监测体系充足的保障,确保预警监测体系长期有效地运行。     

海底铁锰氧化还原过程的模拟研究

本文用室内海水-沉积物平衡箱研究了沉积物间隙水中铁、锰的垂直变化分布和随时间变化的分布,Fe~(2+)随深度、时间的变化幅度大,在六个月的实验期内均是如此,而Mn~(2+)在放置三个月后即趋于稳定;Fe~(2+),Mn~(2+)产生的宏观经验动力学表明:Fe~(2+)受pH影响远比Mn~(2+)大,且随着深度的增加更为明显,Fe~(2+)在较下层产生速率大,而Mn~(2+)反之;Fe~(2+)的扩散转移是上覆海水向沉积物中转移,扩散量为-60.7ug/m~2d,Nn~(2+)转移方向相反,扩散量为1746.2ug/m~2.d。     

The relevance of James Lovelock’s research and philosophy to environmental science and academia

James E. Lovelock, famed for his Gaia hypothesis, which views the Earth as a living integrated and interconnected self-regulating system whose equilibrium comes about from complex energy-based interactions and feedback loops, ultimately sustaining life, passed away at the end of July, 2022 at the age of 103. Not only are the adaptive mechanisms of Gaia central to the conversation of environmental homeostasis, they lie at the heart of climate change and global warming. Lovelock is also remembered as the co-inventor of the electron capture detector that eventually allowed for the sensitive detection of chlorofluorocarbons and pesticides. Finally, Lovelock’s free-spirited nature and research independence allow academia to rethink current research’s modus operandi.     

气候变暖背景下森林土壤碳循环研究进展

由人类活动引起的温室效应以及由此造成的气候变暖对森林牛态系统的影响已引起人们的普遍关注.森林土壤碳循环作为全球碳循环的重要组成部分,是决定未来陆地牛物嘲表现为碳源/碳汇的关键环节,揭示这一作用对于准确理解全球变化背景下陆地生态系统碳循环过程具有重要的指导意义.本文主要通过论述影响土壤碳循环过程的5个方面(土壤呼吸、土壤微生物、土壤酶活性、凋落物输入与分解、土壤碳库),综述了近10 a来全球气候变暖对土壤碳循环过程的影响.近年来,尽管已开展了大量有关土壤碳循环对气候变暖的响应及反馈机制的研究,并取得了一定的成果,但研究结果仍然存在很大的不确定性.整合各种密切关联的全球变化现象,完善研究方法和实验手段,加强根际微生态系统碳循环过程与机理研究将是下一步研究的方向和重点.参70     

试点城市O3浓度特征分析

利用2009年O3试点城市的03监测数据,分析了北京、天津、上海、青岛、沈阳和广东的03浓度变化特征,统计了年超标情况,并结合气象要素数据分析了其对03浓度的影响.结果表明,不同城市各点位间03浓度变化趋势基本一致,但因点位类型不同,浓度存在差异;O3浓度呈单峰型日变化,在13:00-15:00出现最大值,6:00-7:00出现最小值;O3超标主要集中在4-8月份,广州和北京超标现象较多;O3浓度受温度、降水、风速和风向等气象要素影响较大.     

Nonstationary, long memory and anti-persistence in several climatological time series data

In this article we examine the stochastic behaviour of several daily datasets describing sun (total irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and sunspot numbers) and various climatological anomaly series by looking at their orders of integration. We use a testing procedure that permits us to consider fractional degrees of integration. The tests are valid under general forms of serial correlation and deterministic trends and do not require estimation of the fractional differencing parameter. Results show that the series are all nonstationary, with increments that might be stationary for those variables affecting sun, and anti-persistent for those affecting air temperatures.     

拉萨市近49年气温变化特征研究

2019年6月24日拉萨市出现了30.8℃的高温,创历史新高.为了更好的了解拉萨市气候变暖的机理以及评估该区域未来气候的变化状况,本文基于拉萨市自动气象站近49年的观测数据,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变检验、小波分析、R/S分析等方法深入研究了多时间尺度上气温的时空演变特征.结果 显示:(a...