Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

Effect of outdoor temperature, heat primes and anchoring on belief in global warming

It is generally acknowledged that global warming is occurring, yet estimates of future climate change vary widely. Given this uncertainty, when asked about climate change, it is likely that people’s judgments may be affected by heuristics and accessible schemas. Three studies evaluated this proposition. Study 1 revealed a significant positive correlation between the outdoor temperature and beliefs in global warming. Study 2 showed that people were more likely to believe in global warming when they had first been primed with heat-related cognitions. Study 3 demonstrated that people were more likely to believe in global warming and more willing to pay to reduce global warming when they had first been exposed to a high vs. a low anchor for future increases in temperature. Together, results reveal that beliefs about global warming (and willingness to take actions to reduce global warming) are influenced by heuristics and accessible schemas. Several practical implications are discussed.     

木屑处置漏油事故的室内模拟

用锯木屑作为吸附材料,0#柴油为吸附对象进行室内模拟实验,研究了木屑对纯油、水中浮油的吸附以及吸油后的木屑在水中的漂浮性能;并以木屑粒径、木屑投加量、振荡频率、油膜厚度为研究指标,设计了5因素4水平的正交实验,考察了各因素对0#柴油的吸附量、去除率以及木屑漂浮率的影响并对优化条件进行了讨论。结果表明,在实验研究范围内,木屑对水中柴油的吸附速度极快,1min即可达到饱和,饱和吸附量为8．08g／g;木屑在水中漂浮性能良好,静态时经72h漂浮,漂浮率维持在92％左右;振荡频率为150r／min时,72h内漂浮率维持在68％以上;最佳吸油条件组合为吸附剂粒径10～20目,振荡频率120r／min,木屑投加量0．7g,油膜厚度1．65mm。     

Environmental assessment of garden waste management in the Municipality of Aarhus, Denmark

An environmental assessment of six scenarios for handling of garden waste in the Municipality of Aarhus (Denmark) was performed from a life cycle perspective by means of the LCA-model EASEWASTE. In the first (baseline) scenario, the current garden waste management system based on windrow composting was assessed, while in the other five scenarios alternative solutions including incineration and home composting of fractions of the garden waste were evaluated. The environmental profile (normalised to Person Equivalent, PE) of the current garden waste management in Aarhus is in the order of −6 to 8 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the non-toxic categories and up to 100 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the toxic categories. The potential impacts on non-toxic categories are much smaller than what is found for other fractions of municipal solid waste. Incineration (up to 35% of the garden waste) and home composting (up to 18% of the garden waste) seem from an environmental point of view suitable for diverting waste away from the composting facility in order to increase its capacity. In particular the incineration of woody parts of the garden waste improved the environmental profile of the garden waste management significantly.     

循环荷载对饱和黄土动剪模量的影响研究

利用装有压电陶瓷弯曲元的双向振动三轴仪对饱和黄土进行了循环荷载试验,并根据静力固结条件下黄土的动剪模量发展规律建立了基于哈定方程的拟合曲线;将循环荷载作用下的动剪模量与静力固结下的动剪模量进行了对比研究,并根据轴向应变的发展规律,确定了以上2种条件下动剪模量产生差异的原因:试样结构性破坏,土颗粒重排列,土体具有很高的敏感性。对于振动过程中的暂停对试验的影响进行了研究,认为由于暂停时间很短,可以忽略这种影响。在振动结束后,对试样在原压力下重新进行固结,结果表明,固结完成后,试样的动剪模量增大,且增大幅度随着密度的增加而变小。     

南京低碳经济定量研究

城市化和工业化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素,经济增长和碳排放之间的关系是当今研究的热点问题.本文研究南京市低碳经济发展的现状、阶段及演化特点,发现30年来,南京市低碳经济发展呈现波动反复的特点,扩张负脱钩3次,较高能源消费的经济增长形式-扩张连接4次,经济发展实现与能源消费较好脱钩的弱负脱钩1次,强脱钩4次,其余为弱脱钩.基于内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn,建立了南京经济增长预测模型,并探讨了不同发展模式下南京未来50年低碳经济水平及碳排放量演化规律,预测了不同低碳经济水平下南京碳排放量和峰值出现的时间.研究结果显示,按现行经济模式,南京2050-2060年碳总量增加速度逐步减缓,约在2058年左右实现碳总量的负增长.50年内南京市预计为扩张负脱钩和扩张连接,难以实现稳定的离水平低碳经济增长模式;设定最优能源强度参数的模式下,南京迅速实现稳定强脱钩的低碳经济,碳释放量EKC曲线呈现倒U型,2015年左右即达到峰值.综合各种因素,南京近几年将延续模式l的增长模式,在2020年左右实现向模式2转变,其碳释放量约于2028年前后出现峰值.     

近49年中国夏季制冷度日数的变化

利用全国531个气象站1960~2008年逐日平均气温资料,分析了近49 a来我国夏季制冷度日数的变化趋势,并以浙江省为例分析了制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷的关系。主要结论如下：我国日平均温度等于或高于26℃的日数（1971~2000年平均）大于10 d,夏季有制冷需求的站点主要分布在新疆、四川盆地和太行山 巫山 雪峰山一线以东地区,以及云南干热河谷地区。1960~2008年我国黄河以北地区夏季有制冷需求的站点6~9月平均气温从20世纪90年代中期开始呈现出较明显的上升趋势,使得制冷日数和度日数都相应增加;黄河以南、南岭以北地区近49 a来6~9月平均气温线性趋势不明显,制冷度日数变化不大;南岭以南地区6~9月气温持续上升,夏季制冷度日数的增加最为显著。以浙江省为例的分析显示,制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷有很好的线性相关关系,可以用来预测降温耗电量。
     

基于两级拓扑优化的振动台扩展台面设计与试验验证

根据拓扑优化基本原理,利用OptiStruct进行振动台扩展台面的结构最优化设计,通过两级拓扑优化完成结构的拓扑寻优。首先利用整体级拓扑优化,找到结构的整体最佳构造。然后利用局部级拓扑优化,对局部结构进行拓扑寻优,最终完成产品的结构设计。试验结果与仿真结果对比表明,误差在5%以内,表明方法的有效性和实用性。     

The case for free market environmentalism

Environmental Ethics is the ethics of how we humans are to relate to each other about the environment we live in. The best way to adjust inevitable differences among us in this respect is by private property. Each person takes the best care of what he owns, and ownership entails the free market, which enables people to make mutually advantageous trades with those who might use it even better. Public regulation, by contrast, becomes management in the interests of the regulators, or of special interests, such as lovers of rare species-not the people they're supposed to be serving.     

陕西关中地区水文气候状况对全球变暖的响应问题探讨

利用1953－1999年陕西关中地区年平均气温、年降永量和同期中国年平均气温距平资料，分析对比关中地区近50年气温变化与周期中国气温变化、气温与降水之间的关系，对关中地区日趋严重的水资源退化问题进行了探讨，揭示了全球变化的背景下关中地区气候变化的区域性特点及其气候干暖化趋势。关中地区未来气候将更趋干暖化，生态环境将更加脆弱。建议在西部大开发当中，把生态环境建设放在首要位置。