应用数值模拟技术评价矿山地压灾害

在国内外矿山安全评价领域内,主要以矿山概率风险评价为基础的评价技术,把矿井生产系统中隐患导致事故的概率与隐患造成的损害乘积作为系统状态危险度。隐患发生的概率和造成的损害是通过数据统计获得。该评价方法对隐患发生的概率和损害统计不够规范,缺乏实用性,且只讨论了采用数据的模糊性问题[1]。近年来兴起的数值模拟技术是基于可视化计算软件的一种岩石破裂过程分析方法。笔者提出了用计算机模拟技术进行矿山开采过程中的安全评价新方法,该方法应用材料相似性原理,通过计算机数值模拟,解决针对矿山开采过程中采场结构参数优化、矿柱受力破坏形式、部位、范围及合理性评价等有关地压危害方面的难题。     

A Single-Use Site Selection Technique, Using GIS, for Aquaculture Planning: Choosing Locations for Mangrove Oyster Raft Culture in Margarita Island, Venezuela

Oyster culture has a potential to generate income for coastal communities and to lessen pressure on natural overexploited populations. A project to transfer mangrove oyster Crassostrea rhizophorae raft culture technology to selected coastal communities in Margarita Island, Venezuela is being developed, and an optimum location selection technique was devised. To pick the variables or factors that determine site suitability, a bibliographic database was made, aspects of interest chosen, and the most comprehensive ones singled out, eliminating redundant ones. Twenty variables were grouped in criteria based on the way they influence the project. Variables were classified as intrinsic environmental, environmental extrinsic, logistic, and socioeconomic criteria. Thirty-five experts were asked to evaluate the factors and to score each according to their suitability weight. Logistic criterion received the highest values, followed by environmental extrinsic issues. A Geographic Information System using a base map compiled from 1:25,000 scale maps was developed. A thematic map for each factor was completed, dividing graphically the 3896-km² study area into polygons of equal weight for each factor. The Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was used to combine the variables. Resultant vectors in thematic maps were added to obtain smaller polygons with the same value sum. Finally, MCE was used to generate a final output: the optimum sites for oyster aquaculture resulting from the added values of over 3000 polygons in the maps, for the 20 criteria. Higher scores were reached in 13 areas covering 4.1 km², those places having the optimum conditions for oyster raft aquaculture in the region. Additional locations meeting 75% to 70% of the demanded criteria for a final suitable selection cover 137 sites encompassing 37.5 km².     

USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ASSIST PARAMETER ZONATION IN GROUND WATER FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: For numerical modeling of ground water movement in a real aquifer system, the aquifer is usually divided into hydrogeologically defined zones, each with its own parameter values. The responses of the system, such as head or drawdown, are often available only in some of the zones. The estimated parameters of all the zones are based on the measured response in these limited zones. However, the estimates for some of the zones may be very uncertain, and these zones are therefore not justified by the data. In this paper, an approach is presented to understand which zone may produce uncertain parameter values and should be lumped with its neighbor. This approach is demonstrated using a regional numerical model for pumping test analysis in the Nottinghamshire aquifer, UK. A step-by-step process is used in identifying the aquifer zones and estimating their parameters based on the principle of using the smallest possible numbers of zones and parameters for adequate representation of the drawdown response. After the parameters of each zone are estimated, the sensitivity features of these parameters are examined. The results show that the parameters in one zone can be estimated properly by the drawdown in another zone only when there is significant sensitivity. For transmissivity, sensitivity between zones occurs when there is significant flow between them. For storativity, sufficient sensitivity can occur without large flows between the zones, provided that one zone causes significant drawdown in the other. This idea can be extended to the flow model for a large aquifer system. If the aquifer is divided in such a way that aquifer responses are not sensitive to the parameters in some of the zones, the parameters in those zones cannot be estimated properly and should be lumped into their neighboring zones. In this way, a simple but more reasonable model can be built.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING BY INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

Abstract: This paper describes an interactive data and model generator that is intended to bridge the gap between the water resource enginner and planner and the mathematical progrmming systems approach to regional water supply planning. The optimization objective is to minimize total annual cost with respect to capital investment and operation and maintenance costs. The matrix generator formulates the necessary hydrologic, demographic and programming problem for system optimization. The interactive program guides the user through the input and optimization segments, totally eliminates the chore of manually structuring the model matrix aides in eliminating errors, and allows use by planners without skill in mathematical programming.     

WATER RESOURCES MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION BASED ON CONSERVATION AND FLOODING POOLS1

ABSTRACT: A new and practical concept in water resources modeling and optimization is introduced. Instead of unrealistically assuming a multipurpose reservoir to be composed of a single lumped pool of water, it is treated as two different pools namely conservation and flood pools. Based on this treatment, the optimization problem is stated using the concepts of Lagrange multipliers and parameter optimization. The optimization problem consists of the material balance equation, the constraints on control and state variables and the objective function.     

Landscape design,planning, and management: An approach to the analysis of vegetation

The process of analyzing vegetation in terms of its suitability for various non-consumptive uses is primitive in comparison with systems for evaluating other resources such as soil and topography. This paper proposes a framework for developing a standardized, quantitative vegetation analysis system based on plant ecology methods. A tentative scheme under study in Wisconsin is presented for discussion purposes.     

A Model for Managing Irrigated Agriculture1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation in arid and semiarid regions has led to accumulation of salts, destruction of soil texture, decline in fertility and yield, and eventual abandoning of the land. The problems of irrigated agriculture may be attributed to the fact that managers seldom consider irrigated land as a system consisting of a number of components and that the individual health of each component is vital to the overall health of the entire system. A management model is described here which considers all the important components of an irrigated system and may help maintain a permanent irrigated agriculture. The model optimizes net farm income, maintains favorable hydrologic and salt balance in the irrigated system, meets the concentration requirements of the drainage water for the individual crops, and simulates the impact of the irrigation on the unsaturated and the saturated zone.     

A novel radiant floor system: Detailed characterization and comparison with traditional radiant systems

ABSTRACT

Radiant floor systems have the potential to reduce energy consumption and the carbon footprint of buildings. This study analyzed a novel radiant panel configuration comprising a metal plate with small spikes that can be pressed into cement board or wood. The behavior of this configuration was simulated for different materials for the metal plate, spike dimensions, and varying spacing between spikes. An annual energy simulation model compared the radiant panel configuration with the traditional concrete-based system. Simulations were run under heating dominant, cooling dominant, and neutral conditions; significant cost savings and greenhouse gas emission reduction were seen across all scenarios.     

Multi-criteria PSO-based optimal design of grid-connected hybrid renewable energy systems

ABSTRACT

Human-induced climate change through the over liberation of greenhouse gases, resulting in devastating consequences to the environment, is a concern of considerable global significance which has fuelled the diversification to alternative renewable energy sources. The unpredictable nature of renewable resources is an impediment to developing renewable projects. More reliable, effective, and economically feasible renewable energy systems can be established by consolidating various renewable energy sources such as wind and solar into a hybrid system using batteries or back-up units like conventional energy generators or grids. The precise design of these systems is a critical step toward their effective deployment. An optimal sizing strategy was developed based on a heuristic particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique to determine the optimum number and configuration of PV panels, wind turbines, and battery units by minimizing the total system life-cycle cost while maximizing the reliability of the hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) in matching the electricity supply and demand. In addition, by constraining the amount of conventional electricity purchased from the grid, environmental concerns were also considered in the presented method. Various systems with different reliabilities and potential of reducing consumer’s CO₂ emissions were designed and the behavior of the proposed method was comprehensively investigated. An HRES may reduce the annualized cost of energy and carbon footprint significantly.