大连城市环境评价与城市发展定量研究

通过对大连城市环境系统的考察,设立了完整的评价指标体系,运用模糊优选理论建立模糊评价模型,对大连城市环境进行了定量研究,并结合经济和城市化情况进行了分析。研究结果表明:城市环境质量总体上是在逐年提高的,但从2002年以来发展较为平缓。经济和城市化情况有较大发展,但仍有不足之处。     

基于灰色关联分析的工业行业资源环境节约水平评价——以南京市为例

构建了工业行业资源环境节约水平评价指标体系,结合灰色关联分析方法建立了工业行业资源环境节约水平评价模型,并运用灰色关联分析原理依据灰色关联度的大小划分了工业行业资源环境节约水平的等级标准。在此基础上,以南京市为例,对工业行业的资源环境节约水平进行了评价,结果表明,南京市的13个工业行业的资源环境节约水平可以分为四个等级,并且文章结合行业产值贡献水平,提出了各工业行业发展的调控方向。     

Comparative analysis of data reduction techniques for questionnaire validation using self-reported driver behaviors

Introduction: Exploratory data reduction techniques, such as Factor Analysis (FA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), are widely used in questionnaire validation with ordinal data, such as Likert Scale data, even though both techniques are indicated to metric measures. In this context, this study presents an e-survey, conducted to obtain self-reported behaviors between Brazilian drivers (N = 1,354, 55.2% of males) and Portuguese drivers (N = 348, 46.6% of males) based on 20 items from the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) on a five-point Likert Scale. This paper aimed to examine DBQ validation using FA and PCA compared to Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CATPCA) which is more indicative to use with Likert Scale data. Results: The results from all techniques confirmed the most replicated factor structure of DBQ, distinguishing behaviors as errors, ordinary violations, and aggressive violation. However, after Varimax rotation, CATPCA explained 11% more variance compared to FA and 2% more than PCA. We identified cross-loadings among the component of the techniques. An item changed its dimension in the CATPCA results but did not change the structural interpretability. Individual scores from dimension 1 of CATPCA were significantly different from FA and PCA. Individual scores from factor 1 of CATPCA were significantly different from FA and PCA. Practical applications: The CATPCA seems to be more advantageous in order to represent the original data and considering data constrains. In addition to finding an interpretable factorial structure, the representation of the original data is regarded as relevant since the factor scores could be used for crash prediction in future analyses.     

水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

Double Green Process: a low environmental impact method for recycling of CdTe,a-Si and CIS/CIGS thin-film photovoltaic modules

On the basis of the method for managing the end of life of CdTe photovoltaic panels previously proposed by the authors, a new method for the recycling of all types of thin-film panels (CdTe, a-Si and CIS/CIGS) has been developed and optimised under a research project founded by Enel Foundation and CRUI Foundation. The DGP process has been developed through a feasibility study carried out from three points of view: technical, environmental and economic. The process is composed by two sub-processes matched to each other, one suitable for CdTe panels (named DGPa) and the other one for a-Si and CIS/CIGS panels (DGPb). The Double Green Panel process is based mainly on mechanical treatments with a minimum use of chemicals and it is characterised by a greater level of automation and a high flexibility in production capacity. The potential environmental impacts of various configurations of the DGP process have been extensively analysed with LCA tool in order to develop an environmentally friendly process. The economic feasibility has been assessed through the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) method. The revenues associated to the recovery of valuable and common materials and the recycling costs have been taken into account.     

桂西北河池地区耕地变化及其驱动力Logistic回归分析

桂西北河池地区土地退化严重,耕地少,区域农业发展受限。基于TM遥感图像、DEM等空间数据并结合社会经济统计数据,利用空间分析方法及Logistic回归分析模型,定量分析了1952～2006年桂西北河池地区11个县耕地的时空动态变化规律及其驱动机制。研究结果表明：1952～2006年河池地区耕地总量的变化经历了迅速增加-波动变化-迅速减少-缓慢减少的过程,空间上变化率不均衡,且近20多a间西部地区耕地减少迅速,其变化体现了国家政策的主导驱动作用;根据回归结果提取出7类影响耕地分布的主要解释变量,其中海拔和人口分布为耕地空间分布格局分异的关键影响因素,其次是坡度Ⅰ(0°～5°)、GDP、至主要公路距离、至主要河流距离和至主要城镇距离;不同县之间耕地变化驱动力的解释变量存在差异,且各县耕地分布概率对于海拔、坡度Ⅰ(0°～5°)、GDP这3类解释变量较敏感,而其他解释变量敏感程度较低;东部地区耕地分布的概率更大.     

G2京津塘高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数的关系

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年(2007年3月至2010年2月)逐日逐时万辆车流的交通事故灾害和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将万辆车流的交通事故灾害(交通事故灾害与交通流量之商)与同步气象综合指数进行日变化相关分析;结果表明:平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害的日变化最高峰出现在05时,年平均高峰值高达2.34起·辆-1·10-4;年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害与同步气象综合指数均呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关,即万辆车流的交通事故灾害随气象综合指数的加大而增多;统计学检验(R＞Rα=0.01和F＞Fa=0.01)效果很好.四个季节的万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数相关的系数高达0.7781～0.8537.为了更好地将自动气象监测信息服务于高速公路交通安全,在分析成果的基础上设计出了高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害的气象综合指数风险等级指标,以期为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据.     

Carbon nanotubes as sorbents in the analysis of pesticides

With increasing public concerns for agrochemicals and their potential movement in the ecosystem, very sensitive, selective and precise methods for the analysis of pesticides are needed. Because these substances are present usually at trace levels, the extraction and preconcentration steps are so far essential for their detection. Discoveries of novel nanomaterials with unique properties have significant impact on their use also in extraction techniques. This overview reports the recent application of carbon nanotubes in the analysis of pesticides. The largest numbers of reported applications of carbon nanotubes concern their role as a sorbent materials in solid-phase extraction and microextraction techniques.     

Teachers' conceptions of nature and environment in 16 countries

By using an original framework involving complementary statistical approaches, we investigated the environmental attitudes of 6379 pre-service and in-service teachers in 16 countries of Europe and its neighbourhood. To test hypotheses about the nature of environmental attitudes, we examined the variation across groups of individuals (between-class analysis), investigated the independent effects of several candidate explanatory factors (orthogonal analysis), and finally inspected potential relationships between conceptions on a variety of topics (co-inertia analysis).     

Economic assessment of managing processionary moth in pine forests: a case-study in Portugal

This paper assesses the private and social profitability of current strategies for managing processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in Portuguese pine forests, looking at economic and environmental costs and benefits. Costs include the expenses for forest treatment and the social costs of threats to human health (dermatitis amongst others); benefits are assessed in terms of both revenue and social benefits such as carbon fixation and recreation. The evaluation was done using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an analytical framework. While this tool is currently applied to forest and environmental assessment and specific applications to pest management strategies are to be found in agricultural economics, rather few attempts have been made in the field of forest pest management. In order to assess and compare with--without options, a case-study was analysed for the Setúbal Peninsula, south of Lisbon, an area where extensive stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) grow. The exercise has shown that CBA can be a valuable tool for assessing the economic and social profitability of pest management. The results demonstrate that the loss of revenues in the no-management option is not sufficient to make pest management profitable for private forest owners in the short-term. Conversely, a social profit is gained as pest management minimizes health risks for humans and avoids possible recreational losses.