安徽省土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

利用GIS技术，基于20世纪，80、90年代中期和2000年三期土地利用数据，分析了安徽省的土地利用变化，土地利用变化在空间上表现为：变化范围广，几乎遍及全省各个角落；西部和南部山区其土地利用变化的幅度相对较小，中部，东部和北部地区变化幅度较大；在合理－巢湖－芜湖－马鞍山一片其变化幅度最大，土地利用变化在数量及时间上表现为：耕地（含水田和旱地）大幅减少，其次为草地和林地，代之以城镇用地，农村建设用地和水域的迅速增加，1987－1995年变化的幅度明显小于1995－2000年的变化幅度，随后运用典型相关分析方法对安徽省90年代中期和2000年之间的土地利用变化的驱动因子进行了统计分析，定量诊断出各驱动因子对安徽省土地利用变化的贡献作用大小，对1987－1995年安徽省土地变更数据进行统计分析，揭示了期间土地利用变化的驱动力。     

第二代人的可靠性分析方法的进展

在探讨第一代人的可靠性分析 (HRA)方法的局限性之后 ,笔者进而探讨第二代HRA方法的模型 ,建立在多种学科 (认知心理学、行为科学、可靠性工程等 )相互结合的基础上 ,又着重研究产生人的行为 /绩效的情景环境以及它们是如何影响人的行为 /动作的 ,并与工业系统的运行经验和现场或模拟机获得的信息紧密结合。重点介绍了以“失误分析技术”(ATHEANA)和“认知可靠性和失误分析方法”(CREAM)为代表的第二代HRA方法。它们是当前HRA领域中的具有应用和发展前景的新框架思想。     

重金属铊在典型排放源周边大气颗粒物中的形态及来源分析

采用分级提取法,考察了某典型排放源周边大气颗粒物(PM_(10)、PM_(2.5))的形态分布特征,同时采用富集因子法和因子分析法探讨了大气颗粒物中铊的可能来源。结果表明,无论是在PM_(10)还是PM_(2.5)中铊均是以分布在可氧化态为主,在环境中具有较强的迁移性;大气颗粒物中的铊主要来自人为污染源,其中PM_(10)中的铊主要来自焙烧渣扬尘和污染源排放的废气,而PM_(2.5)中铊则主要是来自污染源排放的废气。     

“十三五”时期我国环境保护国际合作的形势与挑战

对我国"十三五"时期环境保护国际合作形势进行了研判,分析了将面临的机遇和挑战,并提出了环境保护国际合作的对策和建议,以期为做好新时期的环境保护国际合作工作提供参考。     

新常态下广西“十三五”环境保护形势研究

基于广西在新常态下的社会经济发展现状和"十二五"环境质量现状,对广西未来5年环境保护形势进行分析,研究表明:"十三五"期间,广西工业化、城镇化发展将进入高峰期和机遇期,环境保护地位得到提升,但经济稳增长难度大,产业结构调整短期难以根本改变,工业化城镇化发展带来巨大压力,基本保持且持续改善环境质量的压力加大,环境风险防范任务依然艰巨,公众对环境的述求高涨。     

内蒙古自治区环境绩效指数研究

构建了以目标渐近法、均权重法和环境绩效指数法等为一体的综合评价方法,对"十一五"期间内蒙古自治区环境绩效总体情况及其变化进行了研究。结果表明:内蒙古自治区的环境绩效指数呈逐年提升趋势,由60.14上升到73.43,年均增长率为5.1%;内蒙古自治区的二级环境绩效指数得分依次为:生态保护绩效环境治理绩效环境健康绩效资源可持续性利用绩效;内蒙古地区城镇绿化、农业与土地管理、环境治理绩效表现较好;环境绩效短板主要集中在水质、环境卫生、生物多样性、气候变化、能源利用、资源利用、污染控制等指标,表明内蒙古需要进一步加大环保投入、加快节能减排、改进资源利用效率,尽快实现绿色发展转型。     

危险废物无害化管理大数据分析应用研究初探

环境质量改善是我国"十三五"期间环保工作的核心,危险废物管理是影响环境质量的重要因素。近年来,我国危险废物污染防治工作在制度建设和能力建设等方面取得积极进展,但仍存在底数不清、减量不足、利用不畅等问题,频发的危险废物非法倾倒和掩埋已成为突发环境事件的重要诱因,严重威胁环境安全和人体健康。严峻的环境形势迫使我国改进传统的危险废物管理方式。文章从危险废物无害化管理现状分析入手,提出构建危险废物无害化管理大数据应用研究平台的建议,实现依靠数据管理、数据决策和预测性分析的构想。     

Employing pedestrian observations in engineering analysis

Simulation tools are often used to establish pedestrian and evacuee performance. The accuracy and reliability of such tools are dependent upon their ability to qualitatively and quantitatively capture the outcome of this performance; i.e. whether the simulated agents perform the expected acts and take the expected amount of time to complete them. This article investigates the relationship between simulating individual agent actions and generating reliable emergent conditions (e.g. congestion). Once this relationship is established for a particular tool, it can then be used to investigate the conditions that may emerge in certain scenarios and mitigate against them. This article presents a simple framework for categorising real-world observations and then translating these observations into the simulated environment - extracting key information from the data collected to configure the simulation tool as required. The article addresses the qualitative benefits of representing individual-level actions, and, to a lesser degree, the quantitative benefits, although this effort is limited given the nature of the data. It tests this relationship using observations made at the Hajj, specifically the Sa’ee where large numbers of pilgrims perform religious rites in concert. Several scenarios are simulated using the buildingEXODUS model, enabling the importance of individual-level behaviours upon emergent conditions to be investigated, even when simulating relatively large crowds of up to 15,000 people.     

中国区域创新效率及其影响因素

效率问题是中国科技创新过程中需重点关注的一个问题.本文以1998-2005年中国30个省份的研发面板数据为基础,以专利为创新的产出指标,R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入为创新的投入指标,应用随机前沿模型对各地区创新过程中的效率情况进行了实证测评,并就影响创新效率的环境因素进行了进一步探讨.主要的研究发现有:R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入对创新产出均有显著的正向影响,且R&D人员投入比R&D经费支出具有更高的产出弹性;劳动者素质对区域创新效率的提高有显著的正影响,而产业结构有显著的负影响,这可能与专利并不能全面反映高技术产业创新绩效有关;各地区的创新效率呈明显上升的趋势,且与地方经济发展结合越来越紧密;区域创新效率有收敛的趋势,后进地区的追赶效应明显.本文结论为国家及地方创新工程建设提供政策参考.     

How safe must a potential crewed launcher be demonstrated to be before it is crewed?

The US is entering into a new era in space. The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) (Bush, 2004) announced by the US President has been fleshed out during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) (ESAS Team Final Report, 2005) and work has been underway since then to develop a generation of launch vehicles to implement the preferred 1.5 launch architecture identified in the study. The 0.5 part of the launch set indicates the smaller Crew Launch Vehicle in the new set designated Ares I by NASA. The Ares I was selected by the team because analysis had shown that its complement of a solid first stage, with a liquid H₂/O₂ cryogenic second stage offered the best potential balance among cost, risk and performance. In particular the risk that this conceptual design would impose on the crew once matured was forecasted to be an order of magnitude better than the current matured crewed launcher set, the Soyuz and the Space Shuttle (Isakowitz, 2004). This forecast relied heavily on the experience of the heritage systems upon which the concept was based, specifically the heritage of the Shuttle solid rocket boosters and the experience with cryogenic upper stage engines from the Apollo and Shuttle era. Even with this strong heritage in play, it was recognized by the ESAS Risk Analysts that it would be necessary to mature the design with a set of test flights prior to placing the crew at risk. However the question was and is: “How many test flights are necessary before a crewed flight should be attempted?”This is the question that this paper addresses. That is, it is clear that the number of test flights is related to the desired safety level and that this, in turn, is related to what safety goal should be assigned to enable the crewed flight. Further, demonstration of goal achievement is again in turn related to how much of the heritage base can be captured in the new design. In the extreme, for a completely “new” design, the demonstration would be bounded by the requirements of the identical, repeatable experiments of classical probability theory (Mises, 1957). Even if the tens, or even hundreds of launches that this would require would be financially possible, tests of developmental systems are seldom, if ever, identical and repeatable because the design is modified to address the failure events observed. On the other hand, if the design was completely identical to the heritage then the heritage demonstrated reliability could be subsumed compared to the goal without further testing. This paper addresses the role of heritage in a developmental environment in the establishment of a minimum goal for the initiation of crewed missions and the testing required for its demonstration.