新形势下环境质量综合分析思路探讨

随着中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会的顺利召开,环保"大部制"改革、环境监测垂直管理制度改革以及国家"大气十条""水十条""土十条"的全面实施均对生态环境保护、环境监测乃至环境质量综合分析工作提出了新要求。新形势下,环境质量综合分析应与时俱进、开拓创新,进一步优化工作机制,加强系统分析,增强综合分析报告的科学性、规范性、时效性、精准性、客观性等,强化技术与能力支撑,更好发挥环境监测对环境管理和决策的引领作用。     

Machine learning for radioxenon event classification for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

A method of weapon detection for the Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT) consists of monitoring the amount of radioxenon in the atmosphere by measuring and sampling the activity concentration of ^131mXe, ¹³³Xe, ^133mXe, and ¹³⁵Xe by radionuclide monitoring. Several explosion samples were simulated based on real data since the measured data of this type is quite rare. These data sets consisted of different circumstances of a nuclear explosion, and are used as training data sets to establish an effective classification model employing state-of-the-art technologies in machine learning. A study was conducted involving classic induction algorithms in machine learning including Naïve Bayes, Neural Networks, Decision Trees, k-Nearest Neighbors, and Support Vector Machines, that revealed that they can successfully be used in this practical application. In particular, our studies show that many induction algorithms in machine learning outperform a simple linear discriminator when a signal is found in a high radioxenon background environment.     

Perfluorochemicals in wastewater treatment plants and sediments in Hong Kong

The study reported in this paper examined the concentrations of nineteen perfluorochemicals (PFCs), including perfluoroalkyl sulfonates, carboxylates, and sulfonamides in samples collected from Hong Kong wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and sediments. The study was the first to use an external isolator column to assist in the quantification of PFCs in environmental samples without having to make internal modifications to a liquid chromatography system. Perfluorooctanesulfonate was found to be the dominant PFC pollutant in Hong Kong, and the WWTP sludge was the major sink of PFCs discharged from the urban areas. Compared to discharge influenced by industrial activities, much less perfluorooctanoate was found in waste streams. The significantly lower level of perfluorodecanesulfonate in WWTP sludge reflects the important influence of consumer products on PFC distribution. The dominance of even-chain length perfluoroalkyl carboxylates in all of the WWTP sludge samples investigated further suggests the strong aerobic degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols in WWTPs.     

基于模糊评判法的陕西农村公共物品供给模式选择分析

陕西一直实行"以农补工、优先发展城市、优先发展工业"的倾斜性战略政策,使得城乡在资源分配和社会事业发展等方面存在较大的差距,农村发展处于劣势地位,尤其是农村公共物品未能得到有效供给,其供给主要是采取以政府为主导的模式。研究利用陕西农村1990-2008年的时间序列统计数据,通过构建陕西农村经济发展的9个评判指标并对其分别赋予不同的隶属度,运用模糊评判法,对陕西农村公共物品供给的经济发展阶段进行了定量评判。实证研究表明,自20世纪90年代以来,陕西农村地区整体上处于经济发展的第二个阶段,即经济发展的成长阶段。因此,陕西应主要采取以政府为主导型的农村公共物品供给模式,而私人(市场)供给只能作为农村公共物品供给的少许补充。农村公共物品供给模式应根据经济发展阶段作出选择,以期实现各个时期农村公共物品供给的最优化:考虑不同地区农民的需求意愿,改革"一刀切"的供给模式;扭转农民负担部分公共物品供给成本的局面。     

Impacts of Surface Gold Mining on Land Use Systems in Western Ghana

Land use conflicts are becoming increasingly apparent from local to global scales. Surface gold mining is an extreme source of such a conflict, but mining impacts on local livelihoods often remain unclear. Our goal here was to assess land cover change due to gold surface mining in Western Ghana, one of the world’s leading gold mining regions, and to study how these changes affected land use systems. We used Landsat satellite images from 1986–2002 to map land cover change and field interviews with farmers to understand the livelihood implications of mining-related land cover change. Our results showed that surface mining resulted in deforestation (58%), a substantial loss of farmland (45%) within mining concessions, and widespread spill-over effects as relocated farmers expand farmland into forests. This points to rapidly eroding livelihood foundations, suggesting that the environmental and social costs of Ghana’s gold boom may be much higher than previously thought.     

Assessment of fates of estrogens in wastewater and sludge from various types of wastewater treatment plants

We measured five estrogens in the wastewater samples from the municipal wastewater treatment plants (M-WWTPs), livestock wastewater treatment plants (L-WWTPs), hospital WWTPs (H-WWTPs) and pharmaceutical manufacture WWTPs (P-WWTPs) in Korea. The L-WWTPs showed the highest total concentration (0.195-10.4 μg L⁻¹) of estrogens in the influents, followed by the M-WWTPs (0.028-1.15 μg L⁻¹), H-WWTPs (0.068-0.130 μg L⁻¹) and P-WWTPs (0.015-0.070 μg L⁻¹). Like the influents, the L-WWTPs (0.003-0.729 μg L⁻¹) and the M-WWTPs (0.001-0.299 μg L⁻¹) also showed higher total concentration of estrogens in the effluents than the H-WWTPs (0.002-0.021 μg L⁻¹) and P-WWTPs (0.011 μg L⁻¹ in one sample). The L-WWTPs (37.5-543 μg kg⁻¹, dry weight) showed higher total concentrations in sludge than the M-WWTPs (3.16-444 μg kg⁻¹, dry weight) like the wastewater. The distribution of estrogens in the WWTPs may be affected by their metabolism in the human body, their transition through biological treatment processes, and their usage for livestock growth. Unlike the concentration results, the daily loads of estrogens from the M-WWTPs were the highest, which is related to the high capacities of WWTPs.     

Corruption in natural resource management: Implications for policy makers

Corruption is the main reason why resource-rich countries perform badly in economic terms. Corruption in resource-rich countries takes two main forms, rent-seeking and patronage. Resource rents induce rent-seeking as individuals compete for a share of the rents rather than use their time and skills more productively. And resource revenues induce patronage as governments pay off supporters to stay in power, resulting in reduced accountability and an inferior allocation of public funds. This paper systematically reviews the literature on natural resources and corruption, and outlines the main policy implications for donors and domestic policy makers. A main conclusion is that priority should be given to policies that address rent-seeking and patronage. In other words, policy in resource-rich countries should be less about macro-economic management and more about institutions to prevent rent-seeking and patronage, and about giving the right incentives to players in the resource sector. Moreover, all policies need to take into account their impact on rent-seeking and patronage, and some current policies may actually be harmful in this respect.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Sustainability of silicon feedstock for a low-carbon society

We need to ensure the sustainable management of advanced materials, such as purified silicon, that contribute to a low-carbon society. Because a drastic increase in the demand for photovoltaic (PV) systems is tightening the supply of silicon for PV cells, the sustainability of silicon feedstock needs to be explored. For this purpose, a material flow analysis of silicon in Japan from 1996 to 2006 is presented in this paper. Our analysis finds that rapid growth in demand for polycrystalline silicon (pc-silicon) and single crystalline silicon (sc-silicon) has changed the structure of the purified silicon supply. The strong demand for purified silicon for solar cells is responsible for this change. While off-grade silicon obtained as a by-product of electronic-grade silicon (EG-Si) covered the demand for solar sells before 2000, pc-silicon is currently produced independently for solar cells via an energy-intensive process. Analysis of the resource effective-use index (REI), which indicates how effectively purified silicon is used, shows progress in the effective use of pc- and sc-silicon. REI analysis indicates that the effective use of pc-silicon is reaching a maximum, while the effective use of sc-silicon is advancing, with a corresponding increase in price. To ensure a sustainable supply of silicon feedstock, this paper proposes four solutions: (1) production of solar-grade pc-silicon by a less costly and less energy-consuming method; (2) reduction in the amount of crystalline silicon per watt in solar cells; (3) acceleration of the development and deployment of other solar cell types; and (4) reuse and recycling of solar cells in the future.     

Kinetics of carbon dioxide absorption into mixed aqueous solutions of MDEA and MEA using a laminar jet apparatus and a numerically solved 2D absorption rate/kinetics model

New comprehensive numerically solved 1D and 2D absorption rate/kinetics models have been developed, for the first time, to interpret the experimental kinetic data obtained with a laminar jet apparatus for the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in CO₂ loaded mixed solutions of mixed amine system of methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) and monoethanolamine (MEA). Three MDEA/MEA weight ratios ranging from 27/03 to 23/07, over a concentration range of 2.316–1.996 kmol/m³ for MDEA and of 0.490–1.147 kmol/m³ for MEA were studied. The models take into account the coupling between chemical equilibrium, mass transfer, and the chemical kinetics of all possible chemical reactions involved in the CO₂ reaction with MDEA/MEA solvent. The partial differential equations of the 1D model were solved by two numerical techniques; the finite difference method (FDM) based on in-house coded Barakat–Clark scheme and the finite element method (FEM) based on COMSOL software. The FEM comprehensive model was then used to solve the set of partial differential equations in the 2D cylindrical coordinate system setting. Both FDM and FEM produced very accurate results for both the 1D and 2D models, which were much better than our previously published simplified model. The reaction rate constant obtained for MEA blended into MDEA at 298–333 K was k_MEA = 5.127 × 10⁸ exp(−3373.8/T). In addition, the 2D model, for the first time, has provided the concentration profiles of all the species in both the radial and axial directions of the laminar jet, thereby enabling an understanding of the correct sequence in which the reaction steps involved in the reactive absorption of CO₂ in aqueous mixed amines occur.