Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

Reproductive status influences group size and persistence of bonds in male plains zebra (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Equus burchelli</Emphasis>)

Animal groups arise from individuals’ choices about the number, characteristics, and identity of associates. Individuals make these choices to gain benefits from their associations. As the needs of an individual change with its phenotype, so too we expect the nature of its associations to vary. In this paper, we investigate how the social priorities of male plains zebra (Equus burchelli) depend on reproductive state. An adult male is either a bachelor, and lacking mating access, or a stallion defending a harem. Multiple harems and bachelor males aggregate in larger herds. Herds frequently split and merge, affording males opportunities to change associates. Over a 4-year period, we sampled the herd associations in a population of 500–700 zebras. To isolate the effects of reproductive state on male social behavior, we account for potential confounding factors: changes in population size, grouping tendencies, and sampling intensity. We develop a generally applicable permutation procedure, which allows us to test the null hypothesis that social behavior is independent of male status. Averaging over all individuals in the population, we find that a typical bachelor is found in herds containing significantly more adults, bachelors, and stallions than the herds of a typical stallion. Further, bachelors’ bonds with each other are more persistent over time than those among stallions. These results suggest that bachelors form cohesive cliques, in which we may expect cooperative behaviors to develop. Stallion–stallion associations are more diffuse, and less conducive to long-term cooperation. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).     

Monitoring and adaptive management: resolving social and organisational issues to improve information sharing in natural resource management

Adaptive, or 'learning by doing', approaches are often advocated as a means of providing increased understanding within natural resource management. However, a number of organisational and social issues need to be resolved if these approaches are to be used successfully. A case study in the South Island high country of New Zealand is used to review what is needed to support an ongoing community-based monitoring and adaptive management programme. First, the case study is described, paying attention to the social context of the resource management problem. The results of a workshop that explored this problem are then outlined, along with a proposed information flow suggested by participants. Requirements for future steps to resolve these problems (such as information protocols and a multi-stakeholder information system) are discussed. Finally, some broad lessons are drawn from this exercise that could help others developing similar approaches.     

Perceived Effects of Setting Attributes on Visitor Experiences in Wilderness: Variation with Situational Context and Visitor Characteristics

Understanding how setting attributes influence the nature of the visitor experience is crucial to effective recreation management. Highly influential attributes are useful indicators to monitor within a planning framework, such as Limits of Acceptable Change. This study sought to identify the setting attributes perceived to have the most profound effect on the ability to have “a real wilderness experience” and to assess the degree to which attribute importance varied with situational context and visitor characteristics. To this end, exiting hikers were surveyed at moderate and very high use trailheads in Alpine Lakes Wilderness, WA (USA), and Three Sisters Wilderness, OR (USA). They were asked about the degree to which encountering varying levels of different setting attributes would add to or detract from their experience. Attributes with the largest range of effect on experience, based on evaluations of different levels, were considered most important. The most influential attributes were litter and several types of campsite interaction—people walking through camp and number of other groups camping close by. The perceived importance of setting attributes did not vary much between wilderness locations with substantially different use levels, suggesting that conclusions are robust and generalizable across wilderness areas. There also was little difference in the perceptions of day and overnight visitors. In contrast, we found substantial variation in the perceived importance of setting attributes with variation in wilderness experience, knowledge, attachment, and motivation. Our results validate the emphasis of many wilderness management plans on indicators of social interaction, such as number of encounters.     

Choosing a Food Future: Differentiating Among Alternative Food Options

This article examines the diversity of food networks that fit within the alternative food system of the United States. While farmers’ markets, community supported agriculture schemes, and corporate organic food markets all fit within the alternative food system, they differ greatly in the conventions and beliefs that they represent. The alternative food system has divided into two movements: corporate, weak alternative food networks; and local, strong alternative food networks. The weak corporate version focuses on protecting the environment; however, it neglects issues concerning labor standards, animal welfare, rural communities, small-scale farmers, and human health. Local, strong alternative food networks not only assure environmental protection, but they also address the issues that weak alternatives neglect. Using three case studies from the Washington, D.C. metro area, the author explains that strong alternative food networks are better suited to create social and political change because they challenge the foundations of the conventional food system: standardized and generic products, price-based competition, consolidated power, and global scale. To affect true social and political change in the United States, the author recommends supporting strong alternative food networks by creating the requisite cultural and political space for them to succeed.     

Seven thousand years in the service of humanity—the history of copper, the red metal

Measured by weight, copper is the third most important metal used by man. The annual value of its 2007 output was on a par with the GDP of e.g. Ukraine. Copper is also one of the oldest metals, its employment going back 7000 years. For millennia, it was predominantly employed for decorative purposes, coinage and in warfare. Technical breakthroughs in antiquity, like smelting and alloying, expanded its production and enhanced its utility. Copper's true heyday occurred after 1850, with the usage of electricity. In the period since then, volumes increased 300-fold, while costs and prices declined. With impressive progress in the technology of its production and consumption, the red metal has been able to hold its own, despite the emergence over history of formidable substitutes like iron, aluminum, plastics and optic fiber.     

Effectiveness of a publicly-funded demonstration program to promote management of dryland salinity

Community and catchment-based approaches to salinity management continue to attract interest in Australia. In one such approach, Catchment Demonstration Initiative (CDI) projects were established by the Western Australian (WA) Government in 2000 for targeted investment in large-scale catchment-based demonstrations of integrated salinity management practices. The aim was to promote a process for technically-informed salinity management by landholders. This paper offers an evaluation of the effectiveness of one CDI project in the central wheatbelt of WA, covering issues including: its role in fostering adoption of salinity management options, the role of research and the technical requirements for design and implementation of on-ground works, the role of monitoring and evaluation, the identification and measurement of public and private benefits, comparison and identification of the place and value of plant-based and engineering-based options, reliance on social processes and impacts of constraints on capacity, management of governance and administration requirements and an appreciation of the value of group-based approaches.A number of factors may reduce the effectiveness of CDI-type approaches in facilitating landholder action to address salinity, many of these are socially-based. Such approaches can create considerable demands on landholders, can be expensive (because of the planning and accountability required) on the basis of dollars per hectare impacted, and can be difficult to garner ownership from all involved. An additional problem could be that few community groups would have the capacity to run such programs and disseminate the new knowledge so that the CDI-type projects can impact outside the focus catchment. In common with many publicly-funded approaches to salinity, we found that direct benefits on public assets are smaller than planned and that results from science-based requirements of monitoring and evaluation have long lead times, causing farmers to either wait for the information or act sooner and take risks based on initial results. We also found that often it is a clear outline of the process that is of most importance in decision making as opposed to the actual results. We identified limitations in regulatory processes and the capacity for local government to engage in the CDI.The opportunities that CDI-type approaches provide centre around the value of its group-based approach. We conclude that they can overcome knowledge constraints in managing salinity by fostering group-based learning, offer a structured process of trialling options so that the costs and benefits can be clearly and transparently quantified, and avoid the costly mistakes and “learning failures” of the past.     

Ambivalence and conservation behaviour: An exploratory study on the recycling of metal cans

As resource conservation is an imperative for sustainable development, it is crucial to achieve a deeper understanding of the factors involved in people's decisions to recycle. This is even more so because the level of environmental concern is usually higher than the level of ecological behaviours. In this paper we take this fact as indicating that decision-making regarding conservation behaviours happens in the context of an internal debate where contradictory ideas are weighed up and the possibility of ambivalence arises. The main aim of this paper is therefore to explore how contradiction and ambivalence impact upon the attitudes, intentions and pro-ecological behaviours of the private sphere. The paper focuses specifically on the separation and deposition of metal cans, and compares the predictive capacity of beliefs, attitudes and intentions for two groups of respondents – one with a high and another with a low level of ambivalence, as assessed with a direct measure. The role of personal identity and the influence of structural constraints are also explored. Results demonstrate a clear moderating effect of experienced ambivalence, and show how beliefs, particularly negative ones, present a higher predictive capacity of the attitude in the high-ambivalence group, and personal identity plays a relevant role in predicting behaviour in both groups. We discuss the importance of pursuing the study of ambivalence when analysing decision-making in the conservation area.     

汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析

利用Mann Kendall检验方法和空间插值方法，分析了1951~2003年汉江流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季降水和气温变化趋势的时空分布，并重点分析了丹江口水库上游年降水、年平均气温和北半球气温的变化趋势及相互间的联系。分析发现，在显著性水平α=0.1上，近50年来汉江流域大部分地区降水没有明显的变化趋势，气温呈上升趋势。丹江口水库上游降水在1991年发生突变，从20世纪80年代多雨期进入90年代少雨期，80年代平均降水比1951~2003年多年平均降水多9.7%，90年代平均降水比多年平均降水少11.6%；上游平均气温90年代比多年平均气温高0.2℃，而同期北半球的平均气温也比多年平均高了0.3℃，上游气温同北半球气温同步上升，而上游降水变化受北半球气温升高的影响不断减少，两者之间存在反相关系。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对汉江流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据。     

Changing Drivers of Deforestation and New Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract: Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta‐analysis of case studies of land‐cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small‐scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well‐capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.