Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Public perception of air pollution sources across Europe

Air pollution is one of the primary concerns of our society for its effect on human health and the environment. Among the policy measures that can be put in place to limit air pollutant emissions, end-of-pipe technologies and/or regulatory instruments may be implemented through legislative acts. Also, equally important are behavioural measures, requiring citizens’ active involvement. The success of any measure to limit pollutant emissions requires the acceptance by the citizens that, in turn, implies a correct perception of the main pollutant emission drivers. We present here the comparison between the public perception of air pollution sources and the real-world situation through a survey carried out in seven European countries and involving 16 101 respondents. Our study shows a dramatic underestimation of the contribution of the agri-food sector to air pollution. This result is common to all respondents in the seven countries examined and only to a small extent depends on gender, age and socio-economic status of the respondents.     

Spatial interactions in habitat conservation: Evidence from prairie pothole easements

We examine the role of spatial interactions in conservation easements placed on prairie pothole habitat in western Canada. One of the goals of the conservation easement program we study is to protect contiguous habitat. We identify endogenous spatial interactions among conservation easements and government protected land, independent of spatially correlated landscape features and local economic shocks that influence easement enrollment. We present evidence that easements increase the likelihood of subsequent easements on neighboring land. Government-protected land appears to have little effect on the location of conservation easements. These results imply that conservation agencies have leveraged past conservation investment to enroll more contiguous habitat in permanent easements through a combination of targeting and positive social interactions among neighboring landowners.     

Factors influencing perceptions of aquatic ecosystems

While factors influencing perceptions of drinking water have been well studied, those of aquatic ecosystems have been to lesser extent. We conducted a review to improve awareness of these factors. Environmental factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems were presence/absence of water plants and algae, presence/absence of floating debris, the odor, movement (for flowing waters) and clarity/turbidity of the water, and the type, condition, setting, naturalness, and overall aesthetic appeal of the ecosystem. Sociocultural factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems included age, education, gender, and place-based knowledge. We provide perspectives of how managers can better meet the diverse social demands placed on aquatic ecosystems. The importance and benefits of considering these perspectives may be especially beneficial where significant multi-generational and culturally relevant place-based knowledge exist.     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅲ.次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策

本文通过种群自我调节的规律以及Leslie模型进行数量动态分析,从而提出了次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策。     

Are naked and common mole-rats eusocial and if so, why?

Eusociality in mammals is defined in the present paper by the following criteria: reproductive altruism (which involves reproductive division of labor and cooperative alloparental brood care), overlap of adult generations, and permanent (lifelong) philopatry. We argue that additional criteria such as the existence of castes, colony size, reproductive skew, and social cohesion are not pertinent to the definition of eusociality in mammals. According to our definition of mammalian eusociality, several rodent species of the African family Bathyergidae can be considered eusocial, including the naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber), Damaraland mole-rat (Cryptomys damarensis), and several additional, if not all, species in the genus Cryptomys. Furthermore, some species of social voles (like Microtus ochrogaster) may also fulfill criteria of mammalian eusociality. Understanding the evolution of eusociality in mole-rats requires answers to two primary questions: (1) What are the preconditions for the development of their eusocial systems? (2) Why do offspring remain in the natal group rather than dispersing and reproducing? Eusociality in mammals is by definition a special case of monogamy (more specifically: monogyny one female breeding), involving prolonged pair bonding for more than one breeding period. We argue that eusociality in mole-rats evolved from a monogamous mating system where cooperative brood care was already established. A tendency for group living is considered to be an ancestral (plesiomorph) trait among African bathyergid mole-rats, linking them to other hystricognath rodents. A solitary lifestyle seen in some genera, such as Bathyergus, Georychus, and Heliophobius, is assumed to be a derived trait that arose independently in different lineages of bathyergids, possibly as a consequence of selective constraints associated with the subterranean environment. In proximate terms, in eusocial mole-rats either puberty is assumed to be developmentally delayed so that under natural conditions most animals die before dispersal is triggered (e.g., in the case of Heterocephalus) or dispersal is induced only by an incidental encounter with an unfamiliar, yet adequate sexual partner (e.g., in the case of Cryptomys). Ultimately, a combination of strategies involving either dispersal and/or philopatry can be beneficial, especially in a highly unpredictable environment. If genetic relatedness among siblings is high (e.g., a coefficient of relatedness of 0.5 or more), then philopatry would not invoke an appreciable loss of fitness, especially if the cost of dispersing is higher than staying within the natal group. High genetic relatedness is more likely in a monogamous mating system or a highly inbred population. In this paper, we argue that the preconditions for eusociality in bathyergid mole-rats were a monogamous mating system and high genetic relatedness among individuals. We argue against the aridity food-distribution hypothesis (AFDH) that suggests a causal relationship between cooperative foraging for patchily distributed resources and the origin of eusociality. The AFDH may explain group size dynamics of social mole-rats as a function of the distribution and availability of resources but it is inadequate to explain the formation of eusocial societies of mole-rats, especially with respect to providing preconditions conducive for the emergence of eusociality.     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996     

Is boldness affected by group composition in young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis)?

In young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis), individuals within groups differed in the degree of boldness, estimated by habitat utilisation and feeding activity in visual contact with a potential predator. We looked at changes in individual behaviour in connection with change of group composition. During the first period, perch were randomly assigned to groups, and time spent in open habitat versus in vegetation and number of prey attacks were registered. The perch were then categorised into personality types (shy, bold, intermediate) according to their behaviour. During the second period, fish were observed when sorted into new groups, each containing only one personality type. Shy individuals showed the largest changes in behaviour, and increased both the time spent in the open and the number of prey attacks when placed into the new groups. Feeding activity in shy fish during the second period was affected by group composition during the first period. After regrouping, bold individuals decreased their time in the open, whereas intermediate individuals did not change behaviour. Time in the open habitat was, to some extent, influenced by the behaviour of the other members of the group, but number of prey attacks was not. The behaviour of fish of the different personality types we have defined in this study seemed to be based on innate traits, but also modified by the influence of other group members and by habituation to the environment.Communicated by J.Krause     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅱ.次生林的演替规律

本文研究了湖南省中亚热带次生林的种群动态,建立了静态生命表、存活曲线、结构模型以及材积或生物量动态模型,提出了中亚热带次生林的演替基本模式。