惠州市城区NO2污染水平的分析与模拟

分析了2004年惠州市城区各监测站点的NO2数据,结果表明,NO2对城区空气质量影响不大。采用了城市空气质量管理软件模拟了NO2空间分布及日变化情况,且与实测值的比较分析表明,模拟结果在城区内有可比性。但地处城市边缘地带的污染模拟受光化学和区域性污染的影响,有待于进一步研究。所得结论可为惠州市城区优化布点的研究提供一定的参考。     

Out of the wilderness? Achieving sustainable development within Scottish national parks

The introduction of national parks to Scotland represents a significant shift in the evolution of protected area management within the UK. Although the National Parks (Scotland) Act 2000 adopts the established national park aims of conservation and recreation, provisions are also made for advancing notions of sustainable development. This paper provides an assessment of the degree to which the Scottish national park model is likely to enable the realisation of multiple national park objectives. Five key areas are considered for analysis. These relate to management aims, institutional arrangements, implementation, democratic accountability and funding. The evaluation reveals that whilst management provisions have been established in accordance with international sustainable development guidelines, a number of concerns relating to operational processes remain.     

Optimal spatial resolution for collection of ground data and multi-sensor image mapping of a soil erosion cover factor

Military training activities disturb ground and vegetation cover of landscapes and increases potential soil erosion. To monitor the dynamics of soil erosion, there is an important need for an optimal sampling design in which determining the optimal spatial resolutions in terms of size of sample plots used for the collection of ground data and the size of pixels for mapping. Given a sample size, an optimal spatial resolution should be cost-efficient in both sampling costs and map accuracy. This study presents a spatial variability-based method for that purpose and compared it with the traditional methods in a study area in which a soil erosion cover factor was sampled and mapped with multiple plot sizes and multi-sensor images. The results showed that the optimal spatial resolutions obtained using the spatial variability-based method were 12 and 20m for years 1999 and 2000, respectively, and were consistent with those using the traditional methods. Moreover, the most appropriate spatial resolutions using the high-resolution images were also consistent with those using ground sample data, which provides a potential to use the high-resolution images instead of ground data to determine the optimal spatial resolutions before sampling. The most appropriate spatial resolutions above were then verified in terms of cost-efficiency which was defined as the product of sampling cost and map error using ordinary kriging without images and sequential Gaussian co-simulation with images to generate maps.     

Application of spatial multi-criteria analysis to site selection for a local park: a case study in the Bergamo Province, Italy

This contribution discusses a site selection process for establishing a local park. It was supported by a value-focused approach and spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques. A first set of spatial criteria was used to design a number of potential sites. Next, a new set of spatial and non-spatial criteria was employed, including the social functions and the financial costs, together with the degree of suitability for the park to evaluate the potential sites and to recommend the most acceptable one. The whole process was facilitated by a new software tool that supports spatial multiple criteria evaluation, or SMCE. The application of this tool, combined with a continual feedback by the public administration, has provided an effective methodology to solve complex decisional problem in land-use and urban planning.     

Spatial Analysis of Soil Salinity and Soil Structural Stability in a Semiarid Region of New South Wales,Australia

Salt-affected soils are a major threat to agriculture especially in the semiarid regions of the world. The effective management of these soils requires adequate understanding of not only how water and, hence, solutes are transported within the soil, but also how soil salinity and sodicity spatially interact to determine soil structural breakdown. For sustainable agricultural production, information on quantitative soil quality, such as salinity, is required for effective land management and environmental planning. In this study, quantitative methods for mapping indicators of soil structural stability, namely salinity and sodicity, were developed to assess the effect of these primary indicators on soil structural breakdown. The current levels of soil salinity, as measured by electrical conductivity (EC) of the soil/water suspension, soil sodicity, represented by exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), and aggregate stability, were assessed. Remote sensing, geographical information system (GIS), and geostatistical techniques-primarily regression-kriging and indicator-kriging-were used to spatially predict the soil sodicity and salinity. The patterns of salinity (EC) and sodicity (ESP > 5%) were identified. The effect of land use on these soil quality indicators was found to be minimal. Co-spatial patterns were elucidated between sodic soils (defined by ESP > 5%) and highly probable mechanically dispersive soils predicted from indicator-kriging of ASWAT scores. It was established that the incorporation of EC with ESP into an objective index, called electrolyte stability index (ESI = ESP/EC), gave a good indication of soil dispersion, although the threshold ESI value below which effective structural breakdown might occur is 0.025, which is twice as small as the expected 0.05. The discrepancies between ESI and ASWAT scores suggest that other soil factors than salinity and sodicity are affecting soil structural breakdown. This calls for further investigation. The study provides valuable information in the form of risk zones of soil structural breakdown for land management. These zones, with a probability of mechanical soil dispersion of >0.70, require immediate management attention with greater monitoring and amelioration techniques, particularly gypsum or lime application and/or altered cultivation techniques.     

Evolution of road risk disparities at small-scale level: example of Belgium

PROBLEM: Road accident outcomes are traditionally analyzed at state or road network level due to a lack of aggregated data and suitable analytical methods. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate usefulness of a simple spatiotemporal modeling of road accident outcomes at small-scale geographical level. METHOD: Small-area spatiotemporal Bayesian models commonly used in epidemiological studies reveal the existence of spatial correlation in accident data and provide a mechanism to quantify its effect. The models were run for Belgium data for the period 2000-2005. Two different scale levels and two different exposure variables were considered under Bayesian hierarchical models of annual accident and fatal injury counts. The use of the conditional autoregressive (CAR) formulation of area specific relative risk and trend terms leads to more distinctive patterns of risk and its evolution. The Pearson correlation tests for relative risk rates and temporal trends allows researchers to determine the development of risk disparities in time. RESULTS: Analysis of spatial effects allowed the identification of clusters with similar risk outcomes pointing toward spatial structure in road accident outcomes and their background mechanisms. From the analysis of temporal trends, different developments in road accident and fatality rates in the three federated regions of Belgium came into light. Increasing spatial disparities in terms of fatal injury risk and decreasing spatial disparities in terms of accident risk with time were further identified. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The application of a space-time model to accident and fatal injury counts at a small-scale level in Belgium allowed identification of several areas with outstandingly high accident (injury) records. This could allow more efficient redistribution of resources and more efficient road safety management in Belgium.     

Influence of input uncertainty on prediction of within-field pesticide leaching risks

Previous research has suggested that pesticide losses at the field scale can be dominated by a small proportion of the field area. The objective of this study was to investigate whether site-specific applications (i.e. avoiding high-risk areas) at the field scale can contribute to a reduction of pesticide leaching despite uncertainty in the underlying model-based leaching risk map. Using a meta-model of the dual-permeability model MACRO, the annual average pesticide leaching concentrations were estimated for 162 sample sites on a 47 ha field. The procedure was repeated for different scenarios describing different patterns of spatial variation of degradation half-lives and the partition coefficient to soil organic carbon. To account for interpolation uncertainty, maps of predicted pesticide leaching risk were produced by the method of sequential Gaussian simulation. The results of the case study show that larger reductions of predicted leaching were achieved by site-specific application than by that of a comparable uniform dose reduction. Hence, site-specific-applications may be a feasible method to reduce pesticide leaching at the field-scale providing that the model approach gives reasonable estimates of the spatial pattern of pesticide leaching.     

Geographical and pedological drivers of distribution and risks to soil fauna of seven metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) in British soils

Concentrations of seven metals were measured in over 1000 samples as part of an integrated survey. Sixteen metal pairs were significantly positively correlated. Cluster analysis identified two clusters. Metals from the largest (Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn), but not the smallest (Cd, Pb) cluster were significantly negatively correlated with spatial location and soil pH and organic matter content. Cd and Pb were not correlated with these parameters, due possibly to the masking effect of recent extensive release. Analysis of trends with soil properties in different habitats indicated that general trends may not necessarily be applicable to all areas. A risk assessment indicated that Zn poses the most widespread direct risk to soil fauna and Cd the least. Any risks associated with high metal concentrations are, however, likely to be greatest in habitats such as arable and horticultural, improved grassland and built up areas where soil metal concentrations are more frequently elevated.     

Female distribution affects mate searching and sexual selection in male northern water snakes (Nerodia sipedon)

Mating systems and sexual selection are assumed to be affected by the distribution of critical resources. We use observations of 312 mating aggregations to compare mate-searching success of male northern water snakes (Nerodia sipedon) in two marshes in which differences in mating substrate availability resulted in more than fourfold differences in female dispersion. Reproductive males had significantly larger home ranges where females were dispersed than where females were clumped. The number of females encountered by males increased significantly with male home range size where females were dispersed, and decreased significantly where females were clumped. Where females were clumped, males were more likely to encounter other males when they located females. We found no evidence in either population that mate searching was energetically expensive or that males with relatively more energy had larger home ranges. However, males with greater fat reserves at the start of the season participated in more mating aggregations when females were dispersed, suggesting that fat reserves could affect a male’s willingness to attempt mating or to persist in aggregations. When females were dispersed there was weak stabilizing selection acting to maintain male body size (β=–0.14), but strong directional selection favoring larger (β=0.50) and fatter (β=0.37) males. Over 7 years, the intensity of selection favoring larger males varied substantially (β=0.14–1.15), but that variation was not related to variation in the operational sex ratio. We found no evidence of directional selection on either body size (β=0.05) or fat reserves (β=0.10) of males when females were spatially clumped. Overall, the distribution of females had a pronounced effect on male behavior, on the factors that affected male success in locating females, and probably on the extent of sperm competition once females had been located. Received: 23 November 1998 / Received in revised form: 9 August 1999 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

大气污染扩散空间信息系统

将GIS(地理信息系统)引入大气多源扩散研究领域,成功地解决了GIS与大气污染扩散数据的连接问题,实现了大气污染扩散数据的计算机图形可视化与计算机一次成图的功能。在此基础上开发了一套带GIS图形处理和分析功能的大气污染扩散空间信息系统软件包,该软件包对传统的G－H面源模式进行了改进工作,提高了其计算速度及计算精度。对线源模式进行了研究,提高了其计算速度及计算精度,解决了在普通微机上实现线源污染扩散的计算问题。