Analysis of Survival of the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) at the Phases of Population Growth and Decline

Changes in the survival parameters of the red fox were analyzed at different phases of the population cycle. It was found that the survival rate in all age classes, including newborns, drastically increased at the phase of population growth. The relationship between the general mortality rate and population size was determined. A hypothesis concerning the mechanism of these changes in the general mortality rate is suggested.     

Ecophysiological indicators of the state of animal populations exposed to damaging factors

Indices of abundance and reproduction rate are considered in some groups of aquatic and terrestrial vertebrates from the zones of technogenic disasters. Upon a critical population decline caused by external destructive factors, such as emissions of acute ecotoxicants, the ecophysiological and behavioral compensatory mechanisms are activated, which provide for restoration of the total population size to the optimum within a short period of time. Environmental pollution with substances disturbing the reproductive function has the gravest consequences for animals. In this case, population size may remain fairly high, and, therefore, the effect of enhanced reproduction as a response to population decline does not take place, which eventually leads to a gradual but irreversible destruction of the population. Pathologies of reproduction should be used as a criterion for assessing the state of animals in the zones of technogenic disasters.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 32–38.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shilova, Shatunovskii.     

A decision tree approach modelling functional group abundance in a pasture ecosystem

Decision tree, one of the data mining approaches, was used to model the relative abundance of five functional groups of plant species, namely high fertility response grasses (HFRG), low fertility tolerance grasses (LFTG), legume, moss and flatweeds in a New Zealand hill-pasture ecosystem using aboveground biomass. The model outputs were integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to map and validate the predictions on a pasture. The decision tree models clearly revealed the interactions between the functional groups and environmental and management factors, and also indicated the relative importance of these factors in influencing the functional group abundance. Soil Olsen P was the most significant factor influencing the abundance of LFTG and moss, while soil bulk density, slope and annual P fertiliser input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of legume, HFRG and flatweeds, respectively. Generally, slope and soil Olsen P were the two key factors underlying the patterns of abundance for these five functional groups. For the five functional groups studied, there was an overall predictive accuracy of 75%. Modelling functional group abundance simplified the investigation of the complex interrelationship between species and environment in a pasture ecosystem. The integration of the decision tree with GIS in this study provides a platform to investigate community structure and functional composition for a pasture over space, and thus can be applied as a tool in pasture management.     

Biodiversity laws: State experiences

The Western Governors' Association (WGA) includes both the public lands states with their issues and the plains states, which are 98% privately owned. WGA deals with most legislation affecting biodiversity, whether the effect is direct or tangential. It will probably not be possible, or desirable, for one entity to be in charge of biodiversity conservation. The Endangered Species Act, public lands laws, agricultural laws, water law, environmental laws, and funding legislation all affect biodiversity conservation and the responsibility for it. None of them on their own are enough, and most can cause harmful unintended consequences for biodiversity. The experience of western states in developing consensus principles for reauthorization of the Endangered Species Act provides an example of common-sense ways to improve management of biodiversity, notwithstanding the complexity and large stakes involved. The WGA's proposed changes call for increasing the role of states, streamlining the act, and increasing certainty for landowners and water users. To achieve sustainable conservation for biodiversity, the better question is not “Who is/should be in charge?”, it is “How do we get this done?” To answer this, we need goals, guidance, and bottom lines from federal laws, and management and oversight at the state level, but they all need to support local on-the-ground partnerships. Sustainable conservation requires the active participation of those who live there. WGA's experience in coordinating the Great Plains Partnership as well as its work with watershed efforts shed light on what to expect. Multilevel partnerships are not easy and require a different way of doing business. The ad hoc, sitespecific processes that result do not lend themselves to being legislated, fit into organizational boxes, or scored on a budget sheet. They do require common sense and a longterm perspective.     

UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATING BANKFULL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Bankfull depth and discharge are basic input parameters to stream planform, stream restoration, and highway crossing designs, as well as to the development of hydraulic geometry relationships and the classification of streams. Unfortunately, there are a wide variety of definitions for bankfull that provide a range of values, and the actual selection of bankfull is subjective. In this paper, the relative uncertainty in determining the bankfull depth and discharge is quantified, first by examining the variability in the estimates of bankfull and second by using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth. Fuzzy numbers are used to incorporate uncertainty due to vagueness in the definition of bankfull and subjectivity in the selection of bankfull. Examples are provided that demonstrate the use of a fuzzy bankfull depth in sediment trans. port and in stream classification. Using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth rather than a deterministic value allows the engineer to base designs and decisions on a range of possible values and associated degrees of belief that the bankfull depths take on each value in that range.     

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy‐neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists’ interpretations of the phrase “significant portion of its range” in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Alteration of dominant cyanobacteria in different bloom periods caused by abiotic factors and species interactions

Freshwater cyanobacterial blooms have drawn public attention because they threaten the safety of water resources and human health worldwide. Heavy cyanobacterial blooms outbreak in Lake Taihu in summer annually and vanish in other months. To find out the factors impacting the cyanobacterial blooms, the present study measured the physicochemical parameters of water and investigated the composition of microbial community using the 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer amplicon sequencing in the months with or without bloom. The most interesting finding is that two major cyanobacteria, Planktothrix and Microcystis, dramatically alternated during a cyanobacterial bloom in 2016, which is less mentioned in previous studies. When the temperature of the water began increasing in July, Planktothrix appeared first and showed as a superior competitor for M. aeruginosa in NO₃^?-rich conditions. Microcystis became the dominant genus when the water temperature increased further in August. Laboratory experiments confirmed the influence of temperature and the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) form on the growth of Planktothrix and Microcystis in a co-culture system. Besides, species interactions between cyanobacteria and non-cyanobacterial microorganisms, especially the prokaryotes, also played a key role in the alteration of Planktothrix and Microcystis. The present study exhibited the alteration of two dominant cyanobacteria in the different bloom periods caused by the temperature, TDN forms as well as the species interactions. These results helped the better understanding of cyanobacterial blooms and the factors which contribute to them.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using regret theory and PROMETHEE under linguistic neutrosophic context

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis.     

Changes in soil characteristics and plant species composition along a moisture gradient in a Mediterranean pasture

Soil physicochemical characteristics, total aboveground biomass, number of species and relative abundance of groups and individual species were measured along a moisture gradient in a pasture, flooded in part during winter through early summer, adjacent to Pamvotis lake in Ioannina, Greece. Soil and vegetation measurements were conducted in 39 quadrats arranged in four zones perpendicular to the moisture gradient. The zone closest to the lake, recently separated from the lake, became part of the pasture and its soil texture was quite different from that of the other zones with a substrate containing 91% sand. Except for pH, this zone had the lowest values in the other five soil physicochemical characteristics measured (organic matter, total and extracted inorganic nitrogen, Olsen extracted phosphorus and extractable potassium); in the other zones organic matter, total nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium tended to increase from the driest to the wettest zone. Total aboveground biomass, ranging from 280 to 840 gm-2, is high for herbaceous pastures in the conditions of Mediterranean climate and it was not related to distance from the lake's shoreline, although the highest values were measured at intermediate distances, or to any of the various soil characteristics measured. Also, the number of species/0.25 m2 was not related to any of the various soil characteristics, but it was highest at the intermediate distances from the lake's shoreline. Species composition varied along the moisture gradient. Forbs as well as annual grasses and legumes declined in abundance from the driest to the wettest places; the reverse was the case for sedges and perennial grasses and legumes. These results indicate that the soil moisture gradient was the principal factor affecting soil characteristics and plant species composition. Since most species were recorded in all the four zones of the pasture, indicating that these can tolerate all variations in abiotic conditions of pasture, the vegetation zonation seems to be influenced by competition. Each functional group of species tends to dominate in a particular range of the soil moisture gradient where it is better suited and tends to exclude competitively other species. Management practices (mowing and grazing) affect the kinds of processes which maintain the observed community structure either by preventing the establishment of later successional species, like reeds and woody species, or by moderating the shoot competition, especially in the wetter zones, and thus permitting the creeping species to grow successfully.