Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival

While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.     

基于非本地物种毒性数据推导出的水质基准可为本地物种提供适当保护吗？

基于非本地物种的毒性数据推导出的水质基准一直存在争议,质疑者提出应有针对不同生物区系的水质基准。而这个问题在中国尤为突出。本文作者搜集了38种污染物对本地物种和非本地物种的毒性数据,比较了这些生物的HC₅和物种敏感度分布,结果显示,基于非本地物种推导的水质基准有74%的确定性可以有效保护中国的水生态系统。如果采用评价因子(AF=5)来校正基准,那么可以获得90%的确定性。
精选自Xiaowei Jin, Zijian Wang, Yeyao Wang, Yibing Lv, Kaifeng Rao, Wei Jin, John P. Giesy and Kenneth M. Y. Leung. Do water quality criteria based on nonnative species provide appropriate protection for native species? Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2985
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2985/full     

基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。     

基于梯形模糊数的OHSMS绩效评价研究

为了提高职业健康安全管理体系绩效和职业健康安全绩效,有必要对职业健康安全管理体系绩效进行评价。在构建科学合理的评价指标体系基础上,运用层次分析法和熵值法确定主客观权重,再运用乘法集成法确定组合权重,作为评价指标的最终权重。运用梯形模糊数的运算法则和集结算子,计算OHSMS绩效评价指标的评价值,取得最终的评价结果。研究表明,基于梯形模糊数的OHSMS绩效评价方法能够较好地评价职业健康安全管理体系绩效,确定不符合项和改进措施,进而持续改进职业健康安全绩效。     

The Evolution of the Environmental Quality Concept: From the US EPA Red Book to the European Water Framework Directive

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.003 Background Water Quality Criteria were firstly defined in the 1970s by the EPA in the USA and the EIFAC in Europe, recognizing the need for protecting water quality in order to allow the use of water resources by man. In the 1990s, the European Commission emphasized the importance of safeguarding structure and function of biologic communities. These approaches were chemically-based. The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) substantially changes the concept of Water Quality, by assuming that a water body needs to be protected as an environmental good and not as a resource to be exploited. In this frame, the biological-ecological quality assumes a prevailing role. Main Features The Water Quality concept introduced by the WFD is a challenge for environmental sciences. Reference conditions should be defined for different typologies of water bodies and for different European ecoregions. Suitable indicators should be developed in order to quantify ecological status and to define what a 'good' ecological status is. Procedures should be developed for correlating the deviation from a good ecological to the effects of multiple stressors on function and structure of the ecosystem. The protection of biodiversity becomes a key objective. In this frame, the traditional procedures for ecotoxicological risk assessment, mainly based on laboratory testing, should be overcome by more site-specific approaches, taking into account the characteristics and the homeostatic capabilities of natural communities. In the paper an overview of the present knowledge and of the new trends in ecotoxicology to get these objectives will be given. A procedure is suggested based on the concept of Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). Recommendations and Perspective . The need for more site-specific and ecologically-oriented approaches in ecotoxicology is strongly recommended. The development of new tools for implementing the concept of 'Stress Ecology' has been recently proposed by van Straalen (2003). In the same time, more 'cological realism'is needed in practically applicable procedures for regulatory purposes.     

Updating coarse-scale species distribution models using small fine-scale samples

Large, fine-grained samples are ideal for predictive species distribution models used for management purposes, but such datasets are not available for most species and conducting such surveys is costly. We attempted to overcome this obstacle by updating previously available coarse-grained logistic regression models with small fine-grained samples using a recalibration approach. Recalibration involves re-estimation of the intercept or slope of the linear predictor and may improve calibration (level of agreement between predicted and actual probabilities). If reliable estimates of occurrence likelihood are required (e.g., for species selection in ecological restoration) calibration should be preferred to other model performance measures. This updating approach is not expected to improve discrimination (the ability of the model to rank sites according to species suitability), because the rank order of predictions is not altered. We tested different updating methods and sample sizes with tree distribution data from Spain. Updated models were compared to models fitted using only fine-grained data (refitted models). Updated models performed reasonably well at fine scales and outperformed refitted models with small samples (10-100 occurrences). If a coarse-grained model is available (or could be easily developed) and fine-grained predictions are to be generated from a limited sample size, updating previous models may be a more accurate option than fitting a new model. Our results encourage further studies on model updating in other situations where species distribution models are used under different conditions from their training (e.g., different time periods, different regions).     

Achieving a real-time online monitoring system for conservation culturomics

Environmental monitoring is increasingly shifting toward a set of systems that describe changes in real time. In ecology specifically, a series of challenges have prevented the rollout of real-time monitoring for features such as biodiversity change or ecosystem service provision. Conservation culturomics, a field concerned with interactions between people and nature, is well placed to demonstrate how monitoring might move toward a network of real-time platforms, given its existence exclusively in the digital realm. We examined a set of considerations associated with the development of real-time monitoring platforms for conservation culturomics and introduce a near real-time platform for the Species Awareness Index, a global index of changing biodiversity awareness derived from the rate of change in page views for species on Wikipedia. This platform will update automatically each month, operating in near real time ( https://joemillard.shinyapps.io/Real_time_SAI/ ). There are plans to make the underlying data queryable via an application programing interface independent of the platform. The real-time Species Awareness Index will represent the first real-time and entirely automated conservation culturomic platform and one of the first real-time platforms in the discipline of ecology. Real-time monitoring for culturomics can provide insight into human–nature interactions as they play out in the physical realm and provide a framework for the development of real-time monitoring in ecology. Real-time monitoring metrics can be processed on private virtual machines and hosted on publicly available cloud services. Conservation now needs an online, real-time observatory that can evolve with the structure of the web.     

Mercury cycling and species mass balances in four North American lakes

A mass balance model for mercury based on the fugacity concept is applied to Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Onondaga Lake and Little Rock Lake to evaluate model performance, analyze cycling of three mercury species groups (elemental, divalent and methyl mercury), and identify important processes that determine the source-to-concentration relationship of the three mercury species groups in these lakes. This model application to four disparate ecosystems is an extension of previous applications of fugacity-based models describing mercury cycling. The model performs satisfactorily following site-specific parameterization, and provides an estimate of minimum rates of species interconversion that compare well with literature. Volatilization and sediment burial are the main processes removing mercury from the lakes, and uncertainty analyses indicate that air-water exchange of elemental mercury and water-sediment exchange of divalent mercury attached to particles are influential in governing mercury concentrations in water. Any new model application or field campaign to quantify mercury cycling in a lake should consider these processes as important.     

Forest Dynamics in the Eastern Ghats of Tamil Nadu,India

The primary deciduous forests in the Eastern Ghats (EG) of Tamil Nadu (TN) India have undergone many changes owing to various need-based forest managements, such as timber extraction for industry, railway sleepers, charcoal, and forest clearance for hydroelectric projects and agriculture, during preindependence and postindependence periods (i.e., from 1800 to 1980). The enactment of a forest conservation act during the 1980s changed the perception of forest managers from utilization to conservation. This study was taken up to assess the forests dynamics in the EG of TN spatially between 1990 and 2003 and nonspatially between 1900 and the 1980s. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS) 1D Linear Imaging and Self Scanning (LISS III) data were used to assess forests during 1990 and 2003, respectively. Field floristic survey and secondary data (such as published literature, floras, books, and forest working plans) were used to assess the forest dynamics in terms of forest type and species composition among the preindependence period, the postindependence period, and the present (i.e., before and after 1980). The satellite data analysis revealed a considerable amount of changes in all forest types during the 13 years. The comparison of species composition and forest types between the past and present revealed that need-based forest management along with anthropogenic activity have altered the primary deciduous forest in to secondary and postextraction secondary forests such as southern thorn and southern thorn scrub forests in the middle [400–900 m above mean sea level (MSL)] and lower slopes (<400 m MSL). However, the evergreen forests present at the upper slope (>900 m MSL) and plateau seemed not to be much affected by the forest management. The changes estimated by the satellite data processing in the major forest types such as evergreen, deciduous, southern thorn, and southern thorn scrub are really alarming because these changes have occurred after the implementation of a forest conservation act. The dependence of local people on forests for various purposes in this region is also considerably high, which might be a key factor for the changes in the forests. The results of this study not only provide an outlook on the present status of the forests and the change trends but also provide the basis for further studies on forests in the EG of TN.