Model based grouping of species across environmental gradients

We present a novel approach to the statistical analysis and prediction of multispecies data. The approach allows the simultaneous grouping and quantification of multiple species’ responses to environmental gradients. The underlying statistical model is a finite mixture model, where mixing is performed over the individual species’ responses to environmental gradients. Species with similar responses are grouped with minimal information loss. We term these groups species archetypes. Each species archetype has an associated GLM that can be used to predict distributions with appropriate measures of uncertainty. Initially, we illustrate the concept and method using artificial data and then with application to real data comprising 200 species from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon on 13 oceanographic and geological gradients from 12°S to 24°S. The 200 species from the GBR are well represented by 15 species archetypes. The model is interpreted through maps of the probability of presence for a fine scale set of locations throughout the study area. Maps of uncertainty are also produced to provide statistical context. The presence of each species archetype was strongly influenced by oceanographic gradients, principally temperature, oxygen and salinity. The number of species in each group ranged from 4 to 34. The method has potential application to the analysis of multispecies distribution patterns and for multispecies management.     

Representing mediating effects and species reintroductions in Ecopath with Ecosim

Ecosystem models play an important role in supporting ecosystem approaches to management. To improve the representation of how ecosystems work, ecosystem models should be able to represent mediating effects (e.g., habitat provision) that species provide to each other as well as species (re)introductions, both common situations that can strongly influence ecosystem dynamics. We examine how such processes can be incorporated into Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), a widely used tool for represent aquatic ecosystems with the potential to support ecosystem-based management. We used the reintroduction of sea otters (Enhydralutris) to the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada as a case study. The model demonstrates how to account for benefits provided by kelp forests by contributing to primary production, increased feeding areas and food availability through prey retention. It also demonstrates how the reintroduction and range expansion of sea otters can be represented in Ecospace, and the implications of these options.     

Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

One of the least explored sources of algorithmic uncertainty in bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) is the selection of thresholds to transform modelled probabilities of occurrence (or indices of suitability) into binary predictions of species presence and absence. We investigate the impacts of such thresholds in the specific context of climate change. BEM for European tree species were fitted combining 9 climatic models and emissions scenarios, 7 modelling techniques, and 14 threshold-setting techniques. We quantified sources of uncertainty in projections of turnover, and found that the choice of the modelling technique explained most of the variability (39%), while threshold choice explained 25% of the variability in the results, and their interaction an additional 19%. Choice of future climates explained 9% of total variability among projections. Estimated species range shifts obtained by applying different thresholds and models were grouped by IUCN-based categories of threat. Thresholds had a large impact on the inferred risks of extinction, producing 1.7- to 9.9-fold differences in the proportions of species projected to become threatened by climate change. Results demonstrate that threshold selection has large - albeit often unappreciated - consequences for estimating species range shifts under climate change.     

Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species

Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.     

湖泊水体富营养化评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型

根据湖泊水环境系统的不确定性,建立了基于随机模拟和三角模糊数的湖泊水体富营养化评价耦合模型,采用三角模糊数表征各营养因子监测值,运用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,得到各变量的随机模拟序列,由综合营养状态指数法确定湖泊的营养等级概率水平。以宁夏沙湖为例,运用此耦合模型对水体的富营养化程度进行评价。结果表明:该方法将水体富营养评价中水环境状态的不确定性以确定性方法融入评价模型,直观表征了水体在各营养状态隶属度的复杂性,评价结果更加全面、合理。     

Temporal and spatial variations of air pollution across China from 2015 to 2018

This study investigated concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃, and air quality index（AQI） values across 368 cities in mainland China during 2015–2018. The study further examined relationships of air pollution status with local industrial capacities and vehicle possessions. Strong correlations were found between industrial capacities（coal, pig iron, crude steel and rolled steel） and air pollution levels. Although statistical and ...     

Functioning of a Multispecies Haul-out of True Seals (Phocidae) in the Oil Production Region on the Shelf of Sakhalin Island

The results of observation of a seal haul-out at the mouth of Piltun Bay on the northeastern Sakhalin coast conducted from 1997 to 2001 are reported. The species composition and spatial structure of the seal haul-out have been studied. The haul-out community is dominated by the largha seal, which is more numerous than the ringed seal and bearded seal throughout the ice-free period. The characteristics of annual, seasonal, and daily variation in the numbers have been estimated, and their mechanisms have been determined. To date, the development of oil deposits on the northeastern Sakhalin shelf has had no negative effect on seals.     

Biodiversity below ground: probing the subterranean ant fauna of Amazonia

Ants are abundant, diverse, and ecologically dominant in tropical forests. Subterranean ants in particular are thought to have a significant environmental impact, although difficulties associated with collecting ants underground and examining their ecology and behavior have limited research. In this paper, we present the results of a study of subterranean ant diversity in Amazonian Ecuador that employs a novel probe to facilitate the discovery of species inhabiting the soil horizon. Forty-seven species of ants in 19 genera, including new and apparently rare species, were collected in probes. Approximately 19% of the species collected at different depths in the soil were unique to probe samples. Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) results showed that the species composition of ants collected with the probe was significantly different from samples collected using other techniques. Additionally, ANOSIM computations indicated the species assemblage of ants collected 12.5 cm below the surface was significantly different from those found at 25, 37.5, and 50 cm. Ant diversity and species accumulation rates decreased with increasing depth. There were no species unique to the lowest depths, suggesting that subterranean ants may not be distributed deep in the soil in Amazonia due to the high water table. The technique we describe could be used to gain new insights into the distribution and biology of subterranean ant species and other members of the species-rich soil invertebrate macrofauna.     

Predicted no-effect concentrations for mercury species and ecological risk assessment for mercury pollution in aquatic environment

Mercury (Hg) exists in different chemical forms presenting varied toxic potentials. It is necessary to explore an ecological risk assessment method for different mercury species in aquatic environment. The predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for Hg(II) and methyl mercury (MeHg) in the aqueous phase, calculated using the species sensitivity distribution method and the assessment factor method, were 0.39 and 6.5 × 10^-3 μg/L, respectively. The partition theory of Hg between sediment and aqueous phases was considered, along with PNECs for the aqueous phase to conduct an ecological risk assessment for Hg in the sediment phase. Two case studies, one in China and one in the Western Black Sea, were conducted using these PNECs. The toxicity of mercury is heavily dependent on their forms, and their potential ecological risk should be respectively evaluated on the basis of mercury species.     

Predicted no-effect concentrations for mercury species and ecological risk assessment for mercury pollution in aquatic environment

Mercury (Hg) exists in different chemical forms presenting varied toxic potentials. It is necessary to explore an ecological risk assessment method for different mercury species in aquatic environment. The predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for Hg(II) and methyl mercury (MeHg) in the aqueous phase, calculated using the species sensitivity distribution method and the assessment factor method, were 0.39 and 6.5 × 10^− 3 μg/L, respectively. The partition theory of Hg between sediment and aqueous phases was considered, along with PNECs for the aqueous phase to conduct an ecological risk assessment for Hg in the sediment phase. Two case studies, one in China and one in the Western Black Sea, were conducted using these PNECs. The toxicity of mercury is heavily dependent on their forms, and their potential ecological risk should be respectively evaluated on the basis of mercury species.