An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

Many different models can be built to explain the distributions of species. Often there is no single model that is clearly better than the alternatives, and this leads to uncertainty over which environmental factors are limiting species’ distributions. We investigated the support for different environmental factors by determining the drop in model performance when selected predictors were excluded from the model building process. We used a paired t-test over 37 plant species so that an environmental factor was only deemed significant if it consistently improved the results for multiple species. Geology and winter minimum temperatures were found to be the environmental factors with the most support, with a significant drop in model performance when either of these factors was excluded. However, there was less support for summer maximum temperature, as other environmental factors could combine to produce similar model performance. Our method of evaluating environmental factors using multiple species will not be capable of detecting predictors that are only important for one or two species, but it is difficult to distinguish these from spurious correlations. The strength of the method is that it increases inference for factors that consistently affect the distributions of many species. We discourage the assessment of models against predefined benchmarks, such as an area under the curve (AUC) of more than 0.7, as many alternative models for the same species produce similar results. Therefore, the benchmarks do not provide any indication of how the performance of the selected model compares to alternative models, and they provide weak inference to accept any selected model.     

Changes in fuelwood use and selection following electrification in the Bushbuckridge lowveld, South Africa

Fuelwood is the primary energy source for domestic purposes throughout the developing world, in both urban and rural environments. Due to the detrimental impacts of biomass use on human and environmental health, many governments have sought to reduce its use through provision of potentially cleaner energies, of which electricity is the dominant form. Yet there are surprisingly few studies of changes in fuelwood use following the introduction of electricity, especially in rural areas of Africa. This paper reports on a longitudinal study of fuelwood use, using identical approaches, in five rural villages in the Bushbuckridge region of South Africa, spanning the period over which electricity became widely available. Almost a decade after the introduction of electricity, over 90% of households still used fuelwood for thermal purposes, especially cooking, and the mean household consumption rates over the 11-year period had not changed, even with a policy of 6 kWh per month of free electricity. The proportion of households purchasing fuelwood had increased, probably in response to a number of factors, including (i) increased fuelwood scarcity in the local environment as reflected by increased fuelwood collection times, changes in fuelwood species preferences, and ranking of scarcity by local collectors, and (ii) increases in the price of fuelwood well below that of other fuels and the prevailing inflation rate. Overall, there was an increase in the number of species harvested over the 11-year period. The implications of these findings for rural energy provision are discussed.