基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。     

基于梯形模糊数的OHSMS绩效评价研究

为了提高职业健康安全管理体系绩效和职业健康安全绩效,有必要对职业健康安全管理体系绩效进行评价。在构建科学合理的评价指标体系基础上,运用层次分析法和熵值法确定主客观权重,再运用乘法集成法确定组合权重,作为评价指标的最终权重。运用梯形模糊数的运算法则和集结算子,计算OHSMS绩效评价指标的评价值,取得最终的评价结果。研究表明,基于梯形模糊数的OHSMS绩效评价方法能够较好地评价职业健康安全管理体系绩效,确定不符合项和改进措施,进而持续改进职业健康安全绩效。     

Species Listing under Canada's Species at Risk Act

Abstract: In a preliminary analysis of listing decisions under Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA), Mooers et al. (2007) demonstrated an apparent bias against marine and northern species. As a follow‐up, we expanded the set of potential explanatory variables, including information on jurisdictional and administrative elements of the listing process, and considered an additional 16 species recommended for listing by SARA's scientific advisory committee as of 15 August 2006. Logistic model selection based on Akaike differences suggested that species were less likely to be listed if they were harvested or had commercial or subsistence harvesting as an explicitly identified threat; had Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) as a responsible authority (RA); were located in Canada's north generally, and especially in Nunavut; or were found mostly or entirely within Canada. Subsequent model validation with an independent set of 50 species for which a listing decision was handed down in December 2007 showed an overall misclassification rate of <0.10, indicating reasonable predictive power. In light of these results, we recommend that RAs under SARA adopt a two‐track listing approach to address problems of delays arising from extended consultations and the inconsistent use by the RAs of socioeconomic analysis; consider revising SARA so that socioeconomic analysis occurs during decisions about protecting species and their habitats rather than at the listing stage; and maintain an integrated database with information on species’ biology, threats, and agency actions to enable future evaluation of SARA's impact.     

Protecting the piping plover under section 7 of the endangered species act

Section 7(a)(2) of the Endangered Species Act directs federal agencies to ensure that their actions do not jeopardize the continued existence of endangered and threatened species. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) issues jeopardy or nonjeopardy biological opinions on proposed federal actions that affect endangered and threatened species. We summarize several biological opinions issued by the USFWS to protect the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus). These opinions address federal actions involving hundreds of piping plovers on the Missouri River system and a few piping plover pairs on short stretches of Atlantic coast beach. Some of these opinions are decisive, but most allow the proposed action to proceed conditional upon a lengthy set of reasonable and prudent alternatives to protect the piping plover. These conditions may prove difficult to track and will add to the workload of the USFWS.     

Ecological Characteristics of Small Rodents Living in Collective Gardens

The small-rodent populations of five collective gardens have been studied. The example of one of the populations has been used to monitor the annual cycle of population size. The species composition and animal number depends on the biotope, climatic conditions, and the anthropogenic load. The ratios between species in the gardens and neighboring biotopes differ from each other, with different species being dominant. It is assumed that small mammals use garden plots as refugia.     

Landscape Equivalency Analysis: Methodology for Estimating Spatially Explicit Biodiversity Credits

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.     

Fish Assemblage Responses to Water Withdrawals and Water Supply Reservoirs in Piedmont Streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.     

Spatial Distribution of Sables in the Middle Ob Region

Results of stationary studies on the spatial location of sables (Martes zibellinaL.) belonging to different age and sex groups are summarized. Mapping the sites where 388 animals were taken, it was found that young animals tended to live near floodplains; adult animals, on watersheds. Analysis of sables taken by commercial hunters (n= 1833) made it possible to estimate the age composition and the degree and spatial distribution of the hunting pressure on sable populations in three areas of the Ob region. The spatial separation of young and reproductive animals is interpreted as a group adaptive response to the specific distribution pattern of different habitats typical of this species and to the pattern of animal elimination. It is proposed to use the specific pattern of animal distribution for maintaining the size of the population that is subject to hunting. Specifically, reserve (reproductive) territories should be organized in watershed areas.     

Ecology of sandy beaches in Oman

The benthic macrofauna and physical features of 10 sandy beaches along the coast of Oman were surveyed quantitatively. This is a mesotidal regime mostly subject to low to moderate wave energy but more exposed in the south. Five northern beaches are tide-dominated, with low wave energy, and their profiles consist of a berm, a steep, swash-dominated upper shore and a broad tide-dominated terrace from mid-shore downwards. They are composed of moderately sorted fine to medium sands. Southern beaches experience greater wave energy, particularly during the summer southwest monsoon, and exhibit smoother, concave profiles with fine, fairly well sorted carbonate sand. 58 species and species groups were recorded, with crustanceans, polychaetes and molluscs dominant. In general species richness was high, at least 19–25 species per beach, but dry biomass moderate to low at 26–90g/m shoreline, with one high value of 450g/m. Total abundance was moderate at 3–73×10³ organisms/m of beach. Some zonation was evident with ocypodid crabs andTylos in the supralittoral, cirolanid isopods on the upper shore and a variety of species on the lower shore. The coast of Oman appears to constitute a single zoogeographic region, but with some regional differentiation between north and south due to varying physical conditions. Thus, OmanÕs beaches are characterized by tide-dominated morphodynamics and exceptionally high species richness.