基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

燃煤电厂海水烟气脱硫工艺原理初探

海水烟气脱硫工艺是利用天然的纯海水（燃煤电厂可直接利用电厂的冷却循环水）作为烟气中ＳＯ２的吸收剂，无需其它任何添加剂，也不产生任何废弃物，具有技术成熟、工艺简单、系统运行可靠、脱硫效率高（理论脱硫效率可达９８％）和投资运行费用低等特点，目前在一些国家和地区已得到日益广泛的应用。本文是在部分模拟试验的基础上，对海水烟气脱硫工艺进行了简单的阐述。     

三峡库区水土流失特点及其环境危害防治措施探讨

水土流失是三峡库区主要环境问题之一,也是库区产生大量泥沙的根本因素,更是造成库区人民生活贫困的根源。本文就三峡库区水土流失的特点及其环境危害作了分析,提出了相应的防治措施,为水土流失防治工程提供科学依据。     

湖北省2008年初低温雨雪冰冻过程气候特征分析

2008年初，湖北省出现了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害，直接经济损失高达110亿元以上，有必要对灾害期间的气候特征进行系统、科学的分析和总结。对湖北省76个气象站2008年1月12日～2月3日气温、降水（雪）、日照以及低温持续日数等要素进行时空间差异分析及历史与同期比较，并选取10个代表站历史上所有低温雨雪天气过程，对其过程持续低温日数、最长连续雨雪日数、过程极端低温进行比较分析。结果表明：（1）此次过程的平均气温异常偏低，该省大部为-1～-2℃，比常年同期偏低4～6℃，为各站历史同期最低，其中主要是最高气温异常偏低所致，但极端低温并不低；（2）降雪过程频繁，雨雪量异常偏多；（3）低温冰冻持续时间长，该省大部在16～22 d，位于历史第一；（4）日照异常偏少。持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势是湖北省大范围低温雨雪天气的直接原因。     

Ecological and Economic Services Provided by Birds on Jamaican Blue Mountain Coffee Farms

Abstract: Coffee farms can support significant biodiversity, yet intensification of farming practices is degrading agricultural habitats and compromising ecosystem services such as biological pest control. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) is the world's primary coffee pest. Researchers have demonstrated that birds reduce insect abundance on coffee farms but have not documented avian control of the berry borer or quantified avian benefits to crop yield or farm income. We conducted a bird‐exclosure experiment on coffee farms in the Blue Mountains, Jamaica, to measure avian pest control of berry borers, identify potential predator species, associate predator abundance and borer reductions with vegetation complexity, and quantify resulting increases in coffee yield. Coffee plants excluded from foraging birds had significantly higher borer infestation, more borer broods, and greater berry damage than control plants. We identified 17 potential predator species (73% were wintering Neotropical migrants), and 3 primary species composed 67% of migrant detections. Average relative bird abundance and diversity and relative resident predator abundance increased with greater shade‐tree cover. Although migrant predators overall did not respond to vegetation complexity variables, the 3 primary species increased with proximity to noncoffee habitat patches. Lower infestation on control plants was correlated with higher total bird abundance, but not with predator abundance or vegetation complexity. Infestation of fruit was 1–14% lower on control plants, resulting in a greater quantity of saleable fruits that had a market value of US$44–$105/ha in 2005/2006. Landscape heterogeneity in this region may allow mobile predators to provide pest control broadly, despite localized farming intensities. These results provide the first evidence that birds control coffee berry borers and thus increase coffee yield and farm income, a potentially important conservation incentive for producers.     

Dynamics of growth and seed production in the Siberian stone pine: The level and pattern of variation in characters

A statistical analysis of interannual variation in a set of vegetative and generative characters over 13 years has been performed to characterize the growth and seed production dynamics of the Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) in the southeast of the forest zone in western Siberia. The results have shown that the range of fluctuations in most of vegetative characters is ordinary and their distribution is close to normal. The range of fluctuations in many generative characters is enormous (from 0 to +∞), and the distribution of their values is usually skewed, with low values being recorded several times more frequently than high values. Most variable are the proportion of abortive cones and other characters that are determined mainly in the spring of the pollination year. These characters account for a very high level of variation in the total seed production.     

人口老龄化背景下的经济对策与产业选择

面对人口老龄化对经济发展的影响．应以养老和健康保障为先导．逐步加大对社会保障基金的投入．充实基本养老保险和医疗保险基金．建立和完善与生产力发展水平相适应的社会保障制度．继续推进社会保障社会化和产业结构调整的力度．建议政府应大力发展老龄产业。政府必须从实际出发．坚持科学发展观．逐步建立和完善老年社会养老制度和福利制度．根据老年消费市场状况．规范、引导投资．调整、优化产业结构用产业化、市场化、社会化的新运行机制．推进安老、养老产业的发展．根据老年人的不同需求，有计划的发展老龄产业、开发老年用品．增设老年服务项目．满足老年人在物质和文化方面的发展需要．以促使人口老龄化与经济的协调发展。     

关于长江产业带建设总体布局的初步思考

重点开发长江是90年代中国经济重大战略布署。将长江产业带建设成具有强大经济实力的国家一级经济轴线,宜采用分层次推进与中心辐射相结合的发展战略,以浦东开发和三峡建设为契机,加强基础产业,发展新兴产业和第三产业,优化产业结构,以能源和交通建设先行,改善基础设施。同时,要协调产业带建设与浦东开发、三峡工程建设的关系。