19世纪是我国特大暴雨洪水发生期

本文用大量资料,论述了我国七个江河历史首位洪水均发生在19世纪。而且,洪水泛滥使得平原地区的水系迁移、湖泊淤缩极为严重。同时,存洪水年前后,伴随着一系列寒冷、干旱的气候异常现象。     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

An attempt to recover economic losses from decadal changes in two lagoon systems of Sri Lanka through a newly patented mangrove product

Kahandamodara and Kalametiya are two estuarine lagoons located within about 12 km distance along the Southern coast of Sri Lanka. According to a socio-economic survey, both lagoons have been moderately to high saline water bodies and the latter was an important center of prawn fishery until the late 1960s. Two irrigation projects upstream (Udawalawe irrigation scheme and Muruthawela Wewa), which came into operation in 1967 and 1968 respectively, increased freshwater inflows to these two lagoons and altered flora, fauna, and water quality, with a decline of lagoon fishery as a result. At the same time, the increase in freshwater favorised the Mangrove Apple Sonneratia caseolaris to expand spontaneously. Following many hectares of vegetation increase of this species, our study focused on recovering the economic loss of fisheries decline by using new ethnobotanic information on this species. We found that the pulp of the fruit of the Mangrove Apple is tasty and can be used to prepare a fruit drink. However, it has not been commercialised, or even practiced widely at homes, due to the fact that numerous small seeds in the fruit release certain phenolic compounds when damaged, giving a bad colour and an astringent taste to the pulp. We developed a method to get the fruit pulp from the Mangrove Apple minimising the addition of phenolic compounds. This fruit pulp was then used to produce ice cream and fruit drinks, and the whole procedure has been patented in Sri Lanka for the favour of the local people. Apparently this is a novel mangrove product reported for the first time in mangrove ethnobotany. In addition, analysis of the fruit pulp of the S. caseolaris for nutritional composition revealed that it is very rich in phosphorus and dietary fiber, indicating that these new products may have an even higher potential as a supplementary food. Its use as a health food and as a commercialised eco-product is expected to bring new gains in spite of the former ecosystem and fishery decrease. It is however not known to which extent these novel ethnobiological/socio-economical uses outbalance functions lost by ecosystem degradation.     

上海市郊区农业土地流转类型与土地利用变化响应差异性研究

在对农业用地流转机制进行深入分析的基础上，将农业土地流转市场划分为三种类型：政府引导型、集体推动型和农户主导型。进而结合农户调查数据，通过建立农业土地非耕地化流转的驱动力模型。分析不同类型的农业土地流转市场对于耕地利用变化的影响。模型运行结果表明：政府引导的农业土地流转导致耕地面积大幅减少，集体推动的流转有利于提高耕地利用效率。农户主导的农业土地流转促使了粮食作物种植面积的减少。最后以模型运行结果为依据，从保护农民土地权益、维持耕地总量平衡的角度提出相关建议。     

基于ESDA的京津冀地区草地变化空间分异

论文以县域为基本研究空间单元,借助GIS软件与Geoda空间统计分析软件,利用ESDA方法,对京津冀地区县域草地资源数量变化的总体与局域空间差异进行了分析。结果表明:①1980-2000年京津冀地区草地动态变化系数的Global Moran’s I为0.184 4,α = 0.05时呈显著的空间正相关,草地变化呈现出较明显的空间集聚特征;②时段Ⅰ(1980-1995年)到时段Ⅱ(1995-2000年)的全局Moran指数有所增加,表明草地变化在空间分布上集聚的趋势在增强;③各县域Local Moran’s I的Grid图反映了京津冀地区草地变化在局域空间上的均质性,尤其是高值区域与低值区域的集聚特征十分显著;④LISA集聚4种类型中,正相关的"H-H"类型区、"L-L"类型区占主体部分,二者约占总数的70%以上,其中,在时段Ⅱ,"H-H"关联的县域主要聚集在西北部山区,而中部的平原区域则表现出明显的"L-L"关联特征。     

牧民对气候变化的认知及应对措施——以镶黄旗为例

文章通过对镶黄旗60户牧户的调查访问,分析牧户对气候变化和极端气候灾害事件的认知和应对措施,结果显示:牧民对气温有较强的认知能力,而对于降雨和大风的认知与实际相悖;气候变化下牧户对草场情况和水资源状况等生态环境变化的认知来看,牧民对牧草产量、植物种类、土壤沙化、鼠虫害、地下水变化的认知比较明显;牧民对气候变化所采取的措施主要有政策措施、帮助措施和合作方式,而3种措施中牧民主要采取草畜平衡和春节休牧、畜种改良和防疫措施、邻里间的互助来应对气候变化。影响镶黄旗牧民的主要灾害天气主要是旱灾,占灾害天气的75%,从气候灾害事件影响方面的认知来看;气候灾害事件对畜、草、人的影响比较大,且影响程度为畜>草>人;牧民面对气候灾害事件主要采取处理牲畜、购买草料、走场、圈养、外出打工等5种应对措施。     

川渝地区甲醛柱浓度时空变化及其影响因子的相关性分析

基于Aura-OMI HCHO数据,研究川渝地区2009—2017年甲醛柱浓度变化及影响因素.结果表明:9年间川渝地区甲醛浓度变化总体较为平稳,与全国其他地区相比,浓度均值较低.年变化中,四川省甲醛浓度整体高于重庆市,川渝两地的年均最高值分别出现在2011年和2012年,且2015年重庆出现最大下降速率.整个研究区在最高值变化中,1月、2月及11月出现极高值.9年间甲醛浓度整体先上升后下降,浓度等级二级一级三级其他级别,绝对高值集中分布在康定和雅安交界一带,季节变化呈现春季秋季夏季冬季的规律,与全国其他地区夏季最高有所不同.稳定性方面,研究区中部偏西波动较大,东西两部较为稳定,康定和雅安交界处为高波动区,川西西部、川东平行岭谷和重庆为低波动区,其他地区为中等波动区.地形、气候和风向等自然因素的综合作用对甲醛浓度值的大小及空间分布贡献极大,自然地理条件尤其与极端高值高且集中的特点关系密切.社会经济因素中,生产总值增长速度和能源消费总量增长率与四川省和重庆市两地的甲醛浓度变化正相关关系较强,木材加工及草制品业与之负相关关系较强,而纺织业、化学原料和化学品制造业、石油和核燃料加工业只与四川省甲醛浓度有较强的负相关性,重庆相对较弱.     

中国PM2.5序列惯性特征及政策含义

基于北京、成都、广州、上海、沈阳5大城市2009~2017年的小时PM_2.5质量浓度监测数据,利用AR模型、未知内生结构断点检验和TAR模型等方法实证分析了PM_2.5序列惯性特征、结构变化和放大效应.研究发现,5大城市PM_2.5序列惯性均较强,其中成都PM_2.5序列惯性最强,北京、上海和广州在2009~2017年之间发生了结构性变化.5大城市的PM_2.5序列存在明显的非线性,各大城市PM_2.5总体在低区制运行,而且惯性特征明显,但不存在明显的放大效应,这就意味着雾霾防治不需要考虑PM_2.5序列的放大效应,未来政策应当更加聚焦于低区制下PM_2.5序列惯性特征.     

空冷塔对大气环境温度湿度影响的数值模拟

运用FLUENT建立空冷塔模型进行数值模拟,研究不同出口温度、环境温度和侧风速度下空冷塔与大气环境之间的传热.结果表明：不同出口温度及环境温度对空冷塔与大气环境间的换热有显著影响.其中,当出口温度升高到328K时,空冷塔近地面层空气温度上升6.22K,而其相对湿度由47.7%降至31.78%,空气干燥程度增大;随着环境温度与排气温度间温差增大,换热效果更为显著,表现为冬季空气干燥程度变化最大,春秋次之,夏季最小.不同环境风速对空冷塔与大气环境间换热区域影响显著,其中,当侧风风速为7m/s时,热交换影响区域可达11.17km,且空冷塔近处相对湿度由47.7%降至39.47%.     

塔里木河下游区域植被时空变化

为了对比生态输水工程实施前后塔里木河下游植被变化,分析植被对生态输水的时空响应,基于1986-2017年研究区上方无云的22期Landsat NDVI数据,辅以波动分析、趋势分析,探索研究区植被的时空变化特征,并对其驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）空间上,植被的分布与水资源的分布密切相关,主要沿河道和积水区域分布。（2）1986-2000年,NDVI呈现缓慢下降趋势,2000-2017年NDVI总体呈现波动增加趋势;植被对生态输水有一定的滞后性,且与输水量密切相关。（3）研究区NDVI时间序列的方差介于0.0077~0.1957间,存在明显的空间差异,其波动的大小与植被种类密切相关。（4）1986-2000年,植被的NDVI空间趋势以减小为主,并主要发生在英苏和老英苏附近;2000-2017年,植被的NDVI空间趋势以增加为主,且主要发生在沿河道区域和喀尔达依东侧。