Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

西安地区土壤CO2 释放量和释放规律

根据碱溶液吸收法,对西安地区不同植被条件下土壤CO2释放量进行了昼夜观测,观测资料显示,西安地区各月份土壤CO2释放量在一昼夜内具有明显的变化,从当日上午到次日上午,CO2释放量表现出由低变高再变低的规律,土壤CO2释放量变化与温度变化具有相同的特征,但释放量的变化具有滞后性,相对于温度的变化滞后4－6h左右,温度是决定土壤CO2释放量昼夜变化规律的主要因素,它的升高和降低分别造成了土壤CO2和放量的增加和减少,不同植被条件下,土壤CO2释放量不同,林地释放量大于草地,草地释放量大于裸地,夜间12h释放量大于白天12h释放量。     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.     

Geoengineering and sustainability

ABSTRACT

Geoengineering is regarded by advocates as a creative and responsible technological option in the face of a climate emergency. Critics often see it as a hubristic attempt to play God, with disastrous consequences for the planet and humanity. These antipodal perspectives are represented by the ideal types of Prometheans and Gaians. Prometheans and Gaians typically talk past each other. The geoengineering debate can be made more fruitful by well articulating their respective positions and subsequently situating them in the discourse of sustainability. A sustainability orientation does not answer the troubling question whether geoengineering should be developed and deployed. But it can foster a ‘fusion of horizons’ between Prometheans and Gaians, providing common ground in an otherwise polarized debate and making a more productive dialogue possible.     

Is renewable energy still green? Shaping Australia’s renewable energy enterprise in an age of ecological modernisation

ABSTRACT

Renewable energy (RE) illustrates well the logic of ecological modernisation (EM). This logic has successfully transformed RE from a fringe idea owned by largely environmental actors to a mainstream one embraced by a broader constituency. This mainstream embrace inevitably (re)shapes the renewables enterprise. Not all renewables actors today are driven by environmental goals. Instead, key actors, particularly in corporate or community domains, nurture competing norms and aspirations. How the renewables project is envisaged and the goals it is directed to serve can thus differ considerably. Understanding these differences is important since transformations in the energy domain will not only impact climate protection but shape social futures in significant ways. The analysis proceeds in two interrelated steps: first, empirically – conducting an exploration of some of the main projects and actors in the contemporary Australian RE space; and second, theoretically – considering these empirical developments through an EM lens.     

Prospects for a multi-stakeholder dialogue on climate engineering

ABSTRACT

Lessons from the literature on multi-stakeholder dialogue (MSD) that are relevant to the debate on climate engineering (CE) are examined. MSDs have been used to prod slow-to-develop intergovernmental regulatory processes on a range of transnational and global controversies. A CEMSD might push forward anticipatory governance of CE by promoting social learning, sharpening and legitimizing governance norms, and starting to arrange the political space for governance by states. However, significant challenges and risks are also identified, including questions about the ripeness of the issue for stakeholder dialogue; difficult trade-offs in the design of dialogues, particularly around issues of participation and knowledge-power; and inherent tensions in the various purposes a CEMSD might serve. Given these challenges, steps forward that would better prepare a space for legitimate and effective dialogue are recommended.     

全球和东亚地区CH4浓度时空分布特征分析

利用最新的AIRS卫星观测资料分析了2002年12月~2016年11月全球和东亚地区（70°~140°E,10°~55°N）CH₄浓度的时空变化分布特征.研究发现,2003~2016年,全球CH₄年平均浓度从1774.2×10^-9增加到1789.1×10^-9,年增长率约为1.1×10^-9/a;东亚地区CH₄年平均浓度从1811.5×10^-9增加到1841.0×10^-9,年增长率约为2.0×10^-9/a.在美国西南部、南美洲南部、澳大利亚东南部、中国青藏高原和东北地区等地上空,CH₄浓度增幅比较明显,而在北美洲的东北部上空,CH₄浓度出现负增长.北美洲东北部和俄罗斯东部等地上空CH₄浓度的变化与温度变化呈正相关;如在冬季,该地区温度与周围地区相比更低,同时CH₄浓度更低.本文利用近10a的卫星数据获得了CH₄浓度的垂直廓线,显示不同纬度带CH₄浓度均随着高度的升高逐渐减小,且高纬度地区CH₄浓度减小的最快.近年来,在低纬度地区对流层中低层CH₄浓度变化较为明显.在对流层低层（850hPa）,北半球CH₄浓度随着纬度增加逐渐变大;在南半球则随着纬度增加先减小后变大.而在平流层内,CH₄浓度在赤道处最大,且随着纬度的升高逐渐减小.此外,CH₄的浓度分布存在明显的季节变化：在北半球,大部分地区夏季CH₄浓度高于冬季（约20×10^-9~40×10^-9）,但在撒哈拉沙漠和中国新疆塔里木盆地等地区上空,冬季CH₄浓度高于夏季（约40×10^-9~60×10^?9）.在冬季,中国四川西部上空的CH₄浓度要比青藏高原上空高（约100×10^-9~120×10^-9）.     

垃圾衍生燃料灰渣中主要元素变化的研究

以垃圾衍生燃料(RDF)为研究对象,在600~1100℃条件下灼烧RDF灰渣,对灰渣中的主要元素变化情况进行分析.研究结果表明,RDF灰渣中主要元素包括硅、氧、铝、钙、镁、钾、钠、碳、硫、氯、磷、钛、锌等;灰渣中的可溶盐倾向富集在≤0.3 mm的灰渣颗粒上;在600~1000℃范围内,其总量处于动态平衡,在1100℃则大幅度减少.随着温度的上升,碳转化为二氧化碳气体;硫元素转化为硫酸盐,随后部分再转化为二氧化硫气体;氯元素转化为以氯化钠和氯化钾为主的氯化盐,在达到一定温度时发生相变转化为气体.硅、氧、铝、钙、镁、磷等元素留存于废渣中,随着温度提高,发生复合化学反应,相互键接形成复合硅酸盐物质.     

Groundwater conditions under a reconstructed prairie chronosequence

Chronosequences are useful to evaluate long-term changes in ecosystem services but assessing groundwater quality changes using this approach has rarely been done. In this study, groundwater level and quality comparisons were made in a watershed-scale reconstructed prairie chronosequence that extended back in time approximately 13 years at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR) near Prairie City, Iowa. Our objectives were to determine whether groundwater conditions varied significantly across the chronosequence and quantify the rate of nitrate concentration reduction when row crop fields are replaced by prairie. We installed 19 groundwater wells at upland locations selected to provide similar soil type, landscape position and slope. Water samples were collected on five occasions in 2006 and 2007 and analyzed for field parameters, anions and NO₃-N, NH₄-N and PO₄-P. Significant groundwater changes were primarily associated with groundwater levels, and groundwater nitrate and chloride concentrations. The groundwater was deeper under the older prairie plantings but fluctuated similarly among all well sites. Groundwater nitrate and chloride concentrations decreased 0.58 and 0.52 mg/l per year over the 13-year chronosequence, respectively. Results are seen to provide some guidance to land managers regarding possible nitrate concentration reductions achievable from converting cropland to perennial land cover in similar geomorphic settings.     

气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响研究进展

准确预测气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响趋势对于科学认识气候变化对生物多样性的影响和对策制定具有重要的意义。近年来,气候变化对植物及植被分布影响研究在我国广泛展开。文章对这些研究所采用的气候情景、预测方法和气候变化等对植物及植被分布的影响趋势进行了总结分析,对存在的问题进行了讨论,对未来的趋势提出了若干展望。总体上,目前所用气候情景比较单一、不同预测方法比较研究不够,对土壤和生物因素考虑不充分、涉及植物种类太少。气候变化将使一些植物分布范围减少、甚至消失,而使另一些植物分布范围则会扩大。未来研究应加强气候情景改进和不同方法的比较研究,充分考虑土壤和生物等因子、加强预测方法检验,同时开展植物物种多样性和丰富度对气候变化响应方面的研究。